# Knights v Titans — NRL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 20 – 24 Titans

_Titans surge back to flex on Knights from 14 down._

Half time: 20 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 69% / Titans 31% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Fri, 09 May, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Dylan Lucas (16' 1st Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Sharpe (23' Tipped ⚡), Mat Croker (28') · Titans: Phillip Sami (34' Tipped ⚡), Phillip Sami (46' Tipped ⚡), AJ Brimson (65' Tipped ⚡), AJ Brimson (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 69% | Lost |
| Titans | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.1 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Knights 20–24 Titans in NRL Round 10 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Titans led for exactly none of the first half and won the game anyway. Knights were up 20-6 at the break at McDonald Jones Stadium, the kind of lead that should have been safe, and it wasn't. Final score: Titans 24, Knights 20.

The first 27 minutes belonged entirely to Newcastle. Dylan Lucas opened the scoring in the 15th minute, Fletcher Sharpe added a second in the 23rd, Mat Croker made it three tries in three consecutive Knights sets by the 27th, and the home side had run out to 18-0 before Phillip Sami got the Titans on the board in the 34th. At that point the Knights' forward and backline edges (1217 to 1061 up front, 1179 to 821 out wide) looked to be playing out exactly as the ratings suggested.

Then the second half turned into a different contest altogether. Sami scored again in the 46th to make it 20-10, AJ Brimson crossed in the 65th to bring it to 20-16, and Brimson struck again in the 77th to level the arm-wrestle at 20-22. Two more points arrived before full time to see the Titans home 24-20, completing a 14-point turnaround from where they stood at the break.

The stat sheet explains how a 14-point deficit disappeared. Titans finished with 54% of possession and offloaded the ball 23 times to the Knights' 7, the kind of contact-and-play-the-ball advantage that keeps sets alive and wears a defence down over 80 minutes. They broke the line 8 times to 4, ran for 1,896 metres to 1,714, and made 661 post-contact metres against 640. None of those numbers is enormous on its own, but stacked together over a half they add up to territory and repeat sets, and repeat sets are how you claw back four tries.

Discipline told a similar story. The Titans conceded more penalties, 6 to the Knights' 4, but their completion rate was still the better one at 77% to 75%, and their effective tackle percentage, 89.2% against 84.1%, meant fewer easy releases for a Knights side that had looked untouchable inside the first half hour. Newcastle's 12 errors to the Titans' 9 handed back exactly the kind of cheap possession a team clawing back from 14 down needs.

Form lines make the comeback more notable, not less. The Titans arrived having lost all five of their last matches, conceding an average of 38.4 points a game, while the Knights had actually won more recently and were shipping just 20.8. On paper this was a Knights side built to hold a lead. On the day, the Titans' halves pairing, rated 1381 to the Knights' 1380 pre-match, the only positional battle they were tipped to win, showed up when it mattered.

Alphr's model had Newcastle at 69% and expected them to win by 8.1, with a combined total of 41. The final margin was 4 the other way, though the total of 44 was close enough. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Titans | 6 | 18 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| 1,714 | Run metres | **1,896** |
| 640 | Post-contact metres | **661** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| 7 | Offloads | **23** |
| 84.1% | Effective tackle % | **89.2%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 548 | Kick metres | **614** |

**Model Report Card**

Titans defied the model's 69% prediction for Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.1 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44, within 3 points. Titans trailed 20–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–24. The model went 5/16 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Titans bucked the trend, Knights historically win 75% of games under Belinda Sharpe, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 23' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 27' Try — Mat Croker (Knights) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 34' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 20-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 46' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 20-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 65' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 20-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 77' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 20-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.52 (edge +1.5%) — model probability 68.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Knights here: 69% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 87 ELO points clear, 1404 to 1317. Form leans Knights' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Titans.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Knights by 8.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Knights to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Knights have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 36-26 in 2026 Round 24.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four; Knights are 2-10 at home this year. Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Knights 12th against Titans 16th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 7 · Titans 3 |
| Last meeting | Knights 36-26 |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights at home | 2-10 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 12th · Titans 16th |
| Finals odds | Knights 0% · Titans 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Belinda Sharpe** — 23 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Belinda Sharpe | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 3W–1L | 75% |
| Titans | 1W–4L | 20% |

Avg total: 42.1 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Knights have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Titans's 1 from 5 (20%). Small sample (4 games for Knights).

Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Knights get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Titans's -1.0. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 12.0pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 38.4pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | -22.0pts |
| 1672.0m | Run Metres | 1464.6m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 2.6 |
| 412.2 | Tackles | 344.2 |
| 15.0 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 1W–4L | 12.0 |
| Titans | 0W–5L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Knights | 36 – 26 | Titans |
| 2026 | R11 | Titans | 12 – 36 | Knights |
| 2025 | R3 | Titans | 26 – 6 | Knights |
| 2024 | R26 | Knights | 36 – 14 | Titans |
| 2024 | R11 | Titans | 24 – 28 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 16th-ranked right edge attack (0.63 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Schiller, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Brimson, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 10th) | 1.25/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.88/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 3 | 7 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 192m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 82.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 13 | 14 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 787m/g | 608m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 25/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.4% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 4 | 7 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 527m/g | 549m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.38/g (lg 0.16) +138% · Fullbacks 0.73/g (lg 0.44) +66% · 2nd Rows 0.7/g (lg 0.45) +56%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 30/55g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 5/4g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 25/99g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 19/39g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 20/25g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·3) | 3/2g | 10/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 4/71g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 6/45g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/20g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 5% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 10/46g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/33g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/34g | 4% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 16 | Adam Elliott | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/26g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Brodie Jones | INT | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 3/38g | 10% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylan De Groot | FB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (2·1·0·0·3·0·1·2·0·1) | 3/3g | 1/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 6/8g | 2/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' 46' |
| 5 | Jojo Fifita | WG | 4 in 5g | 8/10g (0·2·0·2·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 4/5g | 2/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' 77' |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Klese Haas | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Randall | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Arama Hau | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Josiah Pahulu | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1404 · Titans 1317 · ELO difference: 87 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1217 (best 1350) | 1061 (best 1308) | Knights +157 |
| Backs | 1179 (best 1204) | 821 (best 968) | Knights +359 |
| Halves | 1380 (best 1380) | 1381 (best 1381) | Titans +1 |
| Hooker | 1173 | 1030 | Knights +143 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Knights predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)