Win Probability
AI Game Review
Titans defied the model's 69% prediction for Knights, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.1 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 44, within 3 points. Titans trailed 20–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–24. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (23 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Belinda Sharpe's career average of 42. Titans bucked the trend, Knights historically win 75% of games under Belinda Sharpe, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
69%
Titans
31%
AI Match Overview
Knights are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Knights ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Knights carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1404 vs 1317). Recent form favours Knights with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Knights by 8.1 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @1.52
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Line / Spread
Knights -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | W L L L L | 12.0 |
Titans | L L L L L | 16.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.8
Knights
38.4
Titans
Avg Margin
-8.8
Knights
-22.0
Titans
Run Metres
1672
Knights
1465
Titans
Line Breaks
4.0
Knights
2.6
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsBelinda Sharpe
23 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Knights have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Titans's 1 from 5 (20%). Small sample (4 games for Knights).
Avg Total
42.1 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.52
SB Away %
33%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Knights get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Titans's -1.0. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Knights predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +8.1
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