Win Probability
AI Game Review
Dolphins defied the model's 62% prediction for Eels, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.0 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 14 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Dolphins have a 75% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Eels
62%
Dolphins
38%
AI Match Overview
Eels hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 38%. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Eels counter with Backline Quality and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Dolphins carry a 112-point ELO rating advantage (1453 vs 1340). Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Eels by 3.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Eels to Win @1.80
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.5%
Line / Spread
Eels -1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.5%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | W W L L L | 20.6 |
Dolphins | W W W L L | 32.4 |
Avg Conceded
29.6
Eels
24.0
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-9.0
Eels
8.4
Dolphins
Run Metres
1591
Eels
1657
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.6
Eels
4.6
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours DolphinsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 9 (44%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Dolphins).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dolphins get a +2.0 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Eels's +1.2.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1453 vs 1340), but the market favours Eels (@1.80).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Eels predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +3.0
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