# Eels v Dolphins — NRL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 16 – 20 Dolphins

_Dolphins outswim a gallant Eels._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 62% / Dolphins 38% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 08 May, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Bailey Simonsson (28'), Matt Doorey (42'), Dylan Brown (73') · Dolphins: Jack Bostock (12' 1st), Connelly Lemuelu (60' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (64' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 62% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Eels 16–20 Dolphins in NRL Round 10 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins beat the Eels 20-16 at CommBank Stadium. Four points in it, which sounds tight, and it was, but the shape of the game says the ledger was closer to even than either side would like to admit.

Start with completion rate. Dolphins finished at 89%, the Eels at 77%. That's a 12-point gap in a game decided by four, and it's the kind of number that usually buries a team, not just costs them a bit of field position. Errors told the same story: Eels coughed up 10, Dolphins just 7. Somehow the Eels still found a way to lead for a chunk of the contest.

Locked at 6-6 at the break, and it stayed a genuine arm-wrestle. Jack Bostock got the Dolphins going in the 11th minute, Bailey Simonsson hit back for the Eels before halftime, then Matt Doorey put the home side in front just after the break to make it 10-6. From there the Dolphins took over. Connelly Lemuelu levelled it up around the hour mark, Herbie Farnworth put them ahead four minutes later, and although Dylan Brown crossed late to get the Eels within four, the Dolphins never gave that lead back.

The Eels actually won plenty of the shape stats. More possession, 52% to 48. More line breaks, 7 to 5. More tackle breaks, 37 to 33. More offloads. On paper that's a team playing the better footy. But none of it means much when you're leaking the ball at a worse clip than the other side and letting them dictate territory through it, and the Dolphins made hay with 623 post-contact metres to 569, grinding out the extra yards after first contact that Eels missed tackles kept gifting them (37 missed to the Eels' 33).

Penalties were the other big swing. Eels conceded just 3, Dolphins gave away 8. In most four-point finishes that discipline gap wins you the game. It didn't here, which tells you how much the completion rate and the after-contact grind mattered on the other side of the ledger.

Going in, the ratings had this as a genuine coin flip leaning Eels, 1340 to 1453 on Alphr's numbers translating to Eels favoured by 3. The form lines explained why: Dolphins arrived averaging 32.4 points a game across their last five against the Eels' 20.6, with a plus 8.4 average margin to the Eels' minus 9. The forward pack and halves ratings both favoured the Dolphins too, 1092 to 1049 up front and 1299 to 1262 in the halves, and on the day that depth showed up in the moments after the break when Lemuelu and Farnworth turned a two-point deficit into a lead the Eels couldn't quite chase down.

Alphr's model had Eels at 62% and predicted a 3-point margin. The Dolphins won by 4. Wrong side, right size of the gap, and the under on 49.5 total points landed too with 36 on the board. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| Dolphins | 6 | 14 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 77% | Completion rate | **89%** |
| 1,887 | Run metres | **1,930** |
| 569 | Post-contact metres | **623** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 33 |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| **90.0%** | Effective tackle % | 88.5% |
| **33** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **761** | Kick metres | 698 |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 62% prediction for Eels, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.0 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 3/16 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 14 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Dolphins have a 71% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 27' Try — Bailey Simonsson (Eels) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 42' Try — Matt Doorey (Eels) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 60' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 64' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 72' Try — Dylan Brown (Eels) — 16-20 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.80 (edge +5.5%) — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Eels -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Eels are the call at 62%, but Dolphins stay live at 38%. The ratings say otherwise: Dolphins sit 112 ELO points clear, 1453 to 1340, so the model is backing Eels against the ratings gap. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Eels, which says Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Eels by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Eels, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 3 of the last 4 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 34-16 in 2026 Round 25.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Eels 17th against Dolphins 14th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 4) | Eels 1 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 34-16 |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 17th · Dolphins 14th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Dolphins | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 10 (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Dolphins).

Eels get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Dolphins's +0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 32.4pts |
| 29.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -9.0pts | Avg Margin | 8.4pts |
| 1590.8m | Run Metres | 1656.8m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 342.2 | Tackles | 358.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 2W–3L | 20.6 |
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 32.4 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Dolphins lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Dolphins | 34 – 16 | Eels |
| 2024 | R7 | Eels | 16 – 44 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R17 | Dolphins | 20 – 48 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the left edge: NRL's 13th-ranked left edge attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 15th there (1.56 conceded/game). Key man: Addo-Carr, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.22 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 12th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.88/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.56/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 12th) | 2.22/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.11/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 181m/g | 200m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 86.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 27 | 20 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 738m/g | 735m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.9/g | 17.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 82.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 11 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 405m/g | 487m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 91% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.21) +43%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.67) +46%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Bailey Simonsson | WG | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 7/24g | 32% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 12/38g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 12/24g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·2·2) | 1/2g | 7/11g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 14/58g | 24% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 16/55g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 9/74g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jordan Samrani | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Matt Doorey | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/16g | 6% | — | 🏉 42' |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1·2) | 3/4g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 85% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 3/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 3/14g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/1g | 1/1g | 39% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Kurt Donoghoe | HK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.30 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| 13 | Tom Gilbert | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Mark Nicholls | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Sean O'Sullivan | Replacement | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1453 vs 1340), but the market favours Eels (@1.80). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1340 · Dolphins 1453 · ELO difference: 112 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1049 (best 1219) | 1092 (best 1230) | Dolphins +42 |
| Backs | 975 (best 1043) | 961 (best 1119) | Eels +14 |
| Halves | 1262 (best 1262) | 1299 (best 1299) | Dolphins +37 |
| Hooker | 1104 | 1053 | Eels +52 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Eels predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)