# Dragons v Warriors — NRL Round 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 14 – 15 Warriors

_Warriors edge Dragons in a one-point thriller._

Half time: 4 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 45% / Warriors 55% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Sat, 10 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Clinton Gutherson (39' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Egan (48'), Corey Allan (52') · Warriors: Luke Metcalf (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Taine Tuaupiki (16')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 55% | Won |
| Dragons | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:41 pm_

Dragons 14–15 Warriors in NRL Round 10 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifteen points to fourteen, and the story is really two different footy philosophies bumping into each other. The Warriors wanted the ball in their hands as little as possible and the boot doing the work instead, 743 kick metres against the Dragons' 386. The Dragons wanted it in hand and moving, five line breaks and 14 offloads to the Warriors' three and five. Both plans worked, up to a point. Only one team walked away with it.

The shape of the game is right there in the scoreboard by halftime, 14-4 to the Warriors. Luke Metcalf opened it in the 7th minute, Taine Tuaupiki made it 12-0 by the 15th, and the Dragons didn't get on the board until Clinton Gutherson crossed in first-half stoppage time. That's a dozen points built on patience and territory before the Dragons had so much as found their groove.

Then the second half turned into exactly the kind of arm-wrestle the raw numbers suggested it should be. Dylan Egan got the Dragons within two just after the break, and three minutes later Corey Allan levelled it at 14-14. For a good stretch there, the more ambitious side looked like it might run down the more controlled one. Line breaks and tackle breaks, 28 to 23, were mounting up, and the Dragons were finding gaps the Warriors weren't.

But field position and discipline with the ball don't disappear just because a team's got some momentum, and that's what dragged the Warriors back in front. Luke Metcalf's field goal in the 69th minute settled it, 15-14, and the Dragons never found an answer.

The numbers explain why the Warriors could afford to sit back and grind rather than chase parity in the arm-wrestle stats. They completed at 92% to the Dragons' 73%, and coughed the ball up just 8 times to 15. Fifteen errors is a lot of footy to give away, no matter how many line breaks you're making on the other side of the ledger. Add in the missed tackles, 23 for the Dragons against 28 for the Warriors, and you'd think that favoured the home side, except the Warriors' completion rate meant they simply had the ball, and the chances, more often.

Run metres were near enough dead level, 1,710 to 1,701, and post-contact metres too, 541 to 568. So this wasn't decided up front. It was decided by who held onto the footy and who put boot to ball with purpose. The Warriors' halves rating of 1,476 against the Dragons' 1,139 coming in said this might be where the game was won, and on account of a Metcalf try, a Metcalf field goal, and a kicking game that pinned the Dragons deep all match, that's exactly how it read.

Alphr's model had Warriors by 3 and landed within two points of the actual margin of 1. The 55% win call was right, the under on 47.5 was right, and 29 points arriving well shy of the projected 45 tells you plenty about how scrappy the middle patch of this one got. Six from sixteen overall isn't a night to brag about, but the shape of this result, tight, low-scoring, decided by field position rather than fireworks, was exactly what the numbers pointed to before kick-off.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| Warriors | 14 | 1 | 15 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **92%** |
| **1,710** | Run metres | 1,701 |
| 541 | Post-contact metres | **568** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **28** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **14** | Offloads | 5 |
| **92.8%** | Effective tackle % | 88.1% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 28 |
| 15 | Errors | **8** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 386 | Kick metres | **743** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 3.0 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 29 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 6/16 on this match. Warriors covered the 2.5-point line. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 18 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Warriors's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Warriors have a 86% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 15' Try — Taine Tuaupiki (Warriors) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 38' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 48' Try — Dylan Egan (Dragons) — 8-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 51' Try — Corey Allan (Dragons) — 14-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 69' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 14-15 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.80 (edge -0.1%) — model probability 54.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 55%, but Dragons stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 146 ELO points clear, 1539 to 1393. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Dragons.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Warriors by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 20-12 in 2026 Round 20.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dragons 10th against Warriors 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Warriors 6 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 20-12 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 10th · Warriors 3rd |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Warriors 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 10W–5L | 67% |
| Warriors | 6W–1L | 86% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Warriors have won 6 of 7 games (86%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 10 from 15 (67%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Warriors).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Warriors get a +1.9 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Dragons's +1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| -2.2pts | Avg Margin | -1.2pts |
| 1713.0m | Run Metres | 1707.0m |
| 7.6 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 352.0 | Tackles | 360.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 2W–3L | 25.2 |
| Warriors | 4W–1L | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Warriors | 20 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2026 | R12 | Dragons | 12 – 30 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R24 | Warriors | 14 – 10 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R7 | Dragons | 30 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R26 | Warriors | 18 – 6 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 12th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 16th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Metcalf, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.13/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.88/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 6 | 11 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 168m/g | 215m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 19 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 767m/g | 643m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.6/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.4/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80% | 82% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 476m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Wingers 1.22/g (lg 1.25) -2% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.44) -5%
**Who scores on Dragons** — 2nd Rows 0.66/g (lg 0.45) +47% · Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Fullbacks 0.59/g (lg 0.44) +34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 2 in 8g | 6/10g (2·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 1/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 7 in 7g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·2·2·1·0) | 2/4g | 13/15g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 2/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Corey Allan | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 4/7g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Lyhkan King-Togia | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 29% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/15g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/7g | 1/16g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $81.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Jack De Belin | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/53g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 6/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | no games | 8/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·3) | 7/12g | 5/4g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Kurt Capewell | CE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Taine Tuaupiki | WG | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| 8 | Jackson Ford | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Laban | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1393 · Warriors 1539 · ELO difference: 146 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1138 (best 1225) | 1125 (best 1320) | Dragons +13 |
| Backs | 956 (best 1080) | 973 (best 1056) | Warriors +18 |
| Halves | 1139 (best 1139) | 1476 (best 1476) | Warriors +337 |
| Hooker | 1091 | 1058 | Dragons +33 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Warriors predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:41 UTC (latest tip update)