Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 3.0 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 29 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 45. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 18 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Warriors's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Warriors have a 86% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
45%
Warriors
55%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Warriors carry a 146-point ELO rating advantage (1539 vs 1393). Recent form favours Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Warriors by 3.0 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.80
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.1%
Line / Spread
Warriors +2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.1%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W W L L L | 25.2 |
Warriors | W W W W L | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
27.4
Dragons
24.4
Warriors
Avg Margin
-2.2
Dragons
-1.2
Warriors
Run Metres
1713
Dragons
1707
Warriors
Line Breaks
7.6
Dragons
4.2
Warriors
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
Warriors hold a 13-point edge: 6W–1L (86%) vs Dragons's 8W–3L (73%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Warriors).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Warriors get a +1.9 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Dragons's -0.1.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Warriors predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -3.0
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