Win Probability
AI Game Review
The match ended in a draw (30–30), a rare result the model's 56% forecast for Panthers didn't account for. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 1.8 vs the actual margin of 0 points. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 1/3 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 14 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
44%
Panthers
56%
AI Match Overview
Panthers hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 44%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Cowboys with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 1.8 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.1%
Line / Spread
Panthers +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-7.1%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | W W W W L | 30.4 |
Panthers | W W L L L | 22.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.4
Cowboys
19.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
10.0
Cowboys
2.8
Panthers
Run Metres
1865
Cowboys
1765
Panthers
Line Breaks
7.2
Cowboys
5.0
Panthers
Referee Indicator
BalancedTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Cowboys 7W–7L (50%) and Panthers 7W–6L (54%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Cowboys get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Panthers's -1.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Panthers predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -1.8
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