Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Knights by 3.6 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 18 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 39. Knights trailed 8–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 8–10. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 18 points was 29 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Knights's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Knights have a 55% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
49%
Knights
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Knights a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Knights ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Knights carry a 135-point ELO rating advantage (1476 vs 1341). Recent form favours Knights with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Knights by 3.6 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @2.15
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.7%
Line / Spread
Knights -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.7%
Total Points
Over 27.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+29.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 25.2 |
Knights | W W W L L | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
36.8
Wests Tigers
16.6
Knights
Avg Margin
-11.6
Wests Tigers
7.4
Knights
Run Metres
1606
Wests Tigers
1833
Knights
Line Breaks
4.8
Wests Tigers
5.4
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Knights have won 6 of 11 games (55%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 8 (13%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Knights hold the ELO advantage (1476 vs 1341), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.87).
The model sides with ELO, Knights predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Knights predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: -3.6
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