# Storm v Eels — NRL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 56 – 18 Eels

_Storm run riot over Eels._

Half time: 46 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 65% / Eels 35% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sun, 09 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Ryan Papenhuyzen (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Josh King (11'), Xavier Coates (22'), Eliesa Katoa (24' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Coates (26'), Harry Grant (30' Tipped ⚡), Nick Meaney (34'), Ryan Papenhuyzen (40' 1st Tipped ⚡), Will Warbrick (56' Tipped ⚡), Jahrome Hughes (58' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Jake Tago (37'), Will Penisini (69' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Iongi (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 65% | Won |
| Eels | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.5 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:41 pm_

Storm 56–18 Eels in NRL Round 1 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Both sides had the ball exactly half the time. Only one of them did anything useful with it. Storm turned their 50% possession into 1,899 running metres and nine line breaks. The Eels turned theirs into 566 kicking metres and not much else. That gap in ambition is basically the whole match.

Final score: Storm 56, Eels 18. It was 46-6 at the break, which tells you where this one was actually decided.

Papenhuyzen got it rolling in the 5th minute and the Storm barely stopped. King crossed at 11, Coates doubled up either side of Katoa's try at 23, then Grant and Meaney piled on before half-time to make it 38-0. Tago's try for the Eels on 37 minutes was their only reply of the half, and Papenhuyzen struck again two minutes before the break to leave it at 44-6. By that point the Eels weren't chasing a game, they were just trying to survive it.

The completion numbers actually favour Eels on paper, 79% to 76%, and Storm coughed up the ball 11 times to 12. So this wasn't won on discipline with the footy in hand. It was won on what happened after contact. Storm racked up 475 post-contact metres and broke 41 tackles to the Eels' 13. Every carry was a problem for the Eels defence, and it showed: 41 missed tackles against Storm's 13, an effective tackle rate of just 80.5% next to Storm's 90.6%.

Warbrick and Hughes added tries either side of the hour to push it to 54-6, and by then the only thing left to settle was the margin. Penisini and Iongi got the Eels to 18 late, but a bit of a form finish against second-string execution doesn't rewrite the story.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as one-sided, just not this one-sided. Storm's halves rating of 1279 and hooker rating of 1138 dwarfed the Eels' 1151 and 977, and that gulf turned into control of the ruck and the middle of the field all day. The recent form lines pointed the same way, Storm averaging 42.6 points a game against the Eels' 35.2, and conceding just 16.8 to the Eels' 34. Whatever was written on paper showed up on the scoreboard.

Alphr's model backed Storm at 65% and got the winner right, no argument there. The margin was another matter. Tipped at 12.5, it landed at 38, and the total blew out to 74 against a predicted 43. Storm covered the 10.5-point line with metres to spare. Call it 8 from 16 on the night, a correct read on the contest, a poor one on the scale of it.

The Eels won the kicking-metres count and not much else worth mentioning. Ball in hand, they managed 1,267 running metres to Storm's 1,899, and 423 post-contact metres to Storm's 475. Territory without go-forward is just a longer walk back to your own line.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 46 | 10 | 56 |
| Eels | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 76% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| **1,899** | Run metres | 1,267 |
| **475** | Post-contact metres | 423 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **41** | Tackle breaks | 13 |
| **14** | Offloads | 11 |
| **90.6%** | Effective tackle % | 80.5% |
| **13** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 468 | Kick metres | **566** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.5 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 74 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 8/16 on this match. Storm covered the 10.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 74 points was 24 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Storm's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Storm have a 67% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 11' Try — Josh King (Storm) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 21' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 23' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 26' Try — Xavier Coates (Storm) — 26-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 30' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 32-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 34' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 38-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 37' Try — Jake Tago (Eels) — 40-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 39' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 44-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 55' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 50-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 57' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 54-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 68' Try — Will Penisini (Eels) — 56-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 76' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 56-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.25 (edge -26.6%) — model probability 65.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -26.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +17.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 13 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 65% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 241 ELO points clear, 1660 to 1419. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Storm by 12.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 34-8 in 2026 Round 11.

Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 8 · Eels 2 |
| Last meeting | Storm 34-8 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 4W–2L | 67% |
| Eels | 4W–6L | 40% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 4 of 6 games (67%), significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 10 (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Storm).

Eels get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Storm's +0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 42.6pts | Avg Score | 35.2pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Conceded | 34.0pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 1948.0m | Run Metres | 1646.8m |
| 9.8 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 273.4 | Tackles | 287.2 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 4W–1L | 42.6 |
| Eels | 2W–3L | 35.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Eels | 8 – 34 | Storm |
| 2026 | R1 | Storm | 52 – 4 | Eels |
| 2025 | R22 | Eels | 10 – 16 | Storm |
| 2024 | R21 | Eels | 14 – 32 | Storm |
| 2024 | R11 | Storm | 48 – 16 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.59 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 8th there (1.83 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 13th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Penisini, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.88/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.59/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.75/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.83/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.41/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 7 | 15 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 289m/g | 234m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 84.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 66 · 57 | 64 · 92 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 646m/g | 619m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.5% | 75.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 16 | 14 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 523m/g | 523m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 89% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.15) +40% · Wingers 1.57/g (lg 1.26) +25% · Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.7) +16%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.26) +7% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.7) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.46) -11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 6/8g | 29/35g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 40' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | no games | 8/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·3·2·0·0) | 3/4g | 11/21g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.48 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/11g | 23% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 15/33g | 14% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | no games | 7/10g (3·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 29/27g | 46% | — | 🏉 22' 26' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/15g | 33/88g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·3·0) | 4/10g | 25/59g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | no games | 9/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·1·3·0·1) | 7/8g | 15/37g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 4/34g | 12% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 6/22g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 67% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/34g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/28g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/21g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/42g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Lazarus Vaalepu | INT | no games | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 2 | Sean Russell | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 4 | Zac Lomax | CE | no games | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jake Tago | WG | no games | 4/9g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Ronald Volkman | HB | no games | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/20g | 0/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Williams | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Ryley Smith | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Matt Doorey | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Charlie Guymer | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1660 · Eels 1419 · ELO difference: 241 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 989 (best 1180) | 1022 (best 1189) | Eels +32 |
| Backs | 1011 (best 1080) | 1050 (best 1115) | Eels +40 |
| Halves | 1279 (best 1279) | 1151 (best 1151) | Storm +128 |
| Hooker | 1138 | 977 | Storm +162 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Eels |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Storm predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:41 UTC (latest tip update)