Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.5 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 74 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 74 points was 24 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Storm's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Storm have a 75% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
65%
Eels
35%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Storm carry a 241-point ELO rating advantage (1660 vs 1419). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Storm by 12.5 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
-26.6%
Line / Spread
Storm -10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-26.6%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+17.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W W L | 42.6 |
Eels | W W L L L | 35.2 |
Avg Conceded
16.8
Storm
34.0
Eels
Avg Margin
25.8
Storm
1.2
Eels
Run Metres
1948
Storm
1647
Eels
Line Breaks
9.8
Storm
6.2
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours StormWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 9 (44%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Storm).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Eels get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Storm's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Storm predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +12.5
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