Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 30 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 10 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 65% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
69%
Cowboys
31%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. Cowboys are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Sea Eagles counter with Halves Control which tips the scales. Cowboys carry a 44-point ELO rating advantage (1562 vs 1519). Recent form favours Cowboys with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 9.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.60
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+10.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | W W L L L | 24.0 |
Cowboys | W W W W L | 34.0 |
Avg Conceded
31.6
Sea Eagles
16.4
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-7.6
Sea Eagles
17.6
Cowboys
Run Metres
1467
Sea Eagles
1897
Cowboys
Line Breaks
4.2
Sea Eagles
6.6
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 17 of 26 games (65%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 9 from 18 (50%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Cowboys get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sea Eagles's -1.3.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1562 vs 1519), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.60).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +9.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.