# Sea Eagles v Cowboys — NRL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 42 – 12 Cowboys

_Sea Eagles run riot over Cowboys._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 69% / Cowboys 31% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sat, 08 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Haumole Olakau'atu (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jason Saab (7' Tipped ⚡), Ben Trbojevic (10'), Ethan Bullemor (26'), Toafofoa Sipley (50'), Reuben Garrick (52'), Daly Cherry-Evans (55') · Cowboys: Scott Drinkwater (72'), Braidon Burns (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 69% | Won |
| Cowboys | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:41 pm_

Sea Eagles 42–12 Cowboys in NRL Round 1 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-four nil at the break, and nobody at Brookvale Oval needed the second half to work out where this one was going. Sea Eagles had already crossed four times inside 26 minutes, Haumole Olakau'atu opening the account in the third and Ethan Bullemor putting the cherry on top just before half-time. Cowboys hadn't sniffed the tryline.

The second half wasn't a comeback, it was just more of the same with the margin stretched further. Sipley, Garrick and Cherry-Evans all crossed inside a five-minute burst either side of the hour mark to push it out to 40-0, and by the time Cowboys finally got on the board through Scott Drinkwater in the 72nd, the contest had been decided for well over an hour of game time. Braidon Burns added a second late, but 42-12 was always the shape of this one from about the 26th minute onwards.

Seven different try scorers for Sea Eagles tells its own story. Line breaks were the clearest split on the sheet, 11 to 3, and that's not a small gap, that's a side that couldn't get out of its own end. Sea Eagles ran for 2,113 metres to 1,511 and found 579 post-contact metres to Cowboys's 434, which is the sort of number you get when you're breaking 36 tackles compared to the opposition's 27. Cowboys simply couldn't get a hand on them.

Cowboys were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, completing at 85% to 80% and coughing up just 8 errors to 11. On another day that discipline wins you the arm wrestle. It didn't matter here, because the errors that counted were the missed tackles, 36 of them, against Sea Eagles's 27. You can complete your sets all day, but if you're missing more than a third again as many tackles as the other mob, the scoreboard's going to run away from you regardless.

The penalty count also went against Cowboys, 9 to 5, which never helps when you're already chasing quick points. And for a side whose forward pack and hooker were rated stronger coming in, 1,031 to 967 up front and 1,120 to 1,076 at hooker, it's a strange result to explain away. On paper Cowboys had the bigger engine room. On the day, Sea Eagles's halves edge, 1,053 to 1,026, looked like it mattered more, because it was their spine pulling the strings in every one of those first-half strikes.

Cowboys came in red-hot on recent form, four wins from five and conceding just 16.4 points a game. None of that showed up here. Sea Eagles had actually lost more than they'd won across their last five and were shipping over 31 points a game on average, so this was as much a form reversal as it was a statistical mauling.

Alphr's model backed Sea Eagles at 69% and got the winner right. The margin was where it fell over badly, tipped at 9.7 and the actual gap was 30. Sea Eagles covered the 4.5 with plenty to spare. Call the winner, miss the story: that's footy for you.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 24 | 18 | 42 |
| Cowboys | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| **2,113** | Run metres | 1,511 |
| **579** | Post-contact metres | 434 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 27 |
| **8** | Offloads | 5 |
| 89.3% | Effective tackle % | **89.4%** |
| **27** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| 11 | Errors | **8** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| **636** | Kick metres | 599 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 30 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 10 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 67% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 7' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 9' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Ethan Bullemor (Sea Eagles) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 49' Try — Toafofoa Sipley (Sea Eagles) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 51' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 34-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 54' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles) — 40-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 72' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 42-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 77' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 42-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.60 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 10 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 69% to see off Cowboys. The ratings say otherwise: Cowboys sit 44 ELO points clear, 1562 to 1519, so the model is backing Sea Eagles against the ratings gap. Form leans Cowboys' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Sea Eagles.

On paper Cowboys shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Sea Eagles, which says Halves Control carry the most weight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sea Eagles have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 19-18 in 2026 Round 19.

Sea Eagles have won 3 straight; Sea Eagles have put up 137 points in four games. Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 7 · Cowboys 3 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 19-18 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWW · 137 for, 106 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 8-4 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cowboys

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 9W–10L | 47% |
| Cowboys | 18W–9L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 18 of 27 games (67%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 9 from 19 (47%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 34.0pts |
| 31.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.4pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | 17.6pts |
| 1467.0m | Run Metres | 1897.0m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 308.4 | Tackles | 317.0 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 2W–3L | 24.0 |
| Cowboys | 4W–1L | 34.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Sea Eagles | 18 – 19 | Cowboys |
| 2026 | R7 | Cowboys | 6 – 38 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R11 | Cowboys | 6 – 24 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R18 | Cowboys | 20 – 21 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R20 | Sea Eagles | 8 – 19 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.85 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 13th there (1.92 conceded/game). Key man: Trbojevic, 17 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 8th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Nanai, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.04/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.65/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.85/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.35/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.31/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) | 2.04/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 15 | 16 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 209m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 78 · 61 | 74 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 711m/g | 761m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13/g | 15.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.8% | 74.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 21 | 26 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 512m/g | 482m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.15) +20% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.4) +7% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.15) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | no games | 10/10g (0·1·2·0·2·1·3·1·0·0) | 5/6g | 36/52g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | no games | 9/10g (1·0·3·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 4/5g | 17/27g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 7' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 11/24g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 32/48g | 36% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | no games | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 5/17g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/18g | 38/127g | 28% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/45g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jazz Tevaga | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 15/32g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/22g | 20% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 17/87g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/23g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/25g | 12% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 17 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/32g | 8% | — | 🏉 50' |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 34% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | no games | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·1) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | no games | 8/10g (0·0·1·3·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Tom Dearden | 5/8 | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Thomas Duffy | HB | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam McIntyre | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.50 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Karl Lawton | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Harrison Edwards | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1562 vs 1519), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.60). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1519 · Cowboys 1562 · ELO difference: 44 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 967 (best 1101) | 1031 (best 1150) | Cowboys +64 |
| Backs | 873 (best 926) | 936 (best 1074) | Cowboys +63 |
| Halves | 1053 (best 1053) | 1026 (best 1026) | Sea Eagles +27 |
| Hooker | 1076 | 1120 | Cowboys +44 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:41 UTC (latest tip update)