Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 51% prediction for Roosters, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.4 but the actual margin was 36 points. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. Broncos led 4–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 22 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Broncos's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Broncos have a 59% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
51%
Broncos
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Roosters a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Referee Tendency. Roosters carry a 138-point ELO rating advantage (1571 vs 1432).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @2.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.7%
Line / Spread
Roosters +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.7%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W L L L | 23.2 |
Broncos | W W L L L | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
27.2
Roosters
35.6
Broncos
Avg Margin
-4.0
Roosters
-14.0
Broncos
Run Metres
1651
Roosters
1482
Broncos
Line Breaks
5.4
Roosters
4.2
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Broncos hold a 5-point edge: 35W–24L (59%) vs Roosters's 32W–27L (54%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Broncos get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -2.1. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1571 vs 1432), but the market favours Broncos (@2.00).
The model sides with ELO, Roosters predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Roosters predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +0.4
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