# Roosters v Broncos — NRL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 14 – 50 Broncos

_Broncos charge down Roosters._

Half time: 4 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 51% / Broncos 49% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 06 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Dominic Young (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Sandon Smith (59'), Dominic Young (74' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Gehamat Shibasaki (14'), Cory Paix (19'), Jack Gosiewski (25'), Selwyn Cobbo (44'), Selwyn Cobbo (47'), Ben Hunt (54'), Reece Walsh (56' Tipped ⚡), Jesse Arthars (66'), Selwyn Cobbo (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 51% | Lost |
| Broncos | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.4 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:41 pm_

Roosters 14–50 Broncos in NRL Round 1 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty to fourteen. That's the number on the board, and it undersells how far ahead Broncos actually were.

By half-time it was already 20-4. So the back end of the game, the bit where Roosters supposedly had a chance to claw back into it, produced a 30-10 hiding on top of a 16-point deficit. Whatever plan the Roosters had at the break, it didn't survive contact with the second half.

The shape of the scoring tells the story on its own. Dominic Young opened it up in the 6th minute and for about eight minutes Roosters were level at 4-4. Then Broncos scored three times in 10 minutes through Gehamat Shibasaki, Cory Paix and Jack Gosiewski to lead 4-16, and the game never came back within two scores again. Selwyn Cobbo alone crossed three times, at 43', 46' and 69', either side of tries to Ben Hunt and Reece Walsh that turned a lead into a rout.

The stat sheet backs up every one of those minutes. Broncos ran 1,922 metres to 1,273, and their 526 post-contact metres against Roosters's 411 says they were getting go-forward even when the initial tackle was made. Ten line breaks to three and 17 offloads to eight point to a side finding space repeatedly, not just occasionally. Roosters missed 37 tackles to Broncos's 30, and against a team that clinical, that gap in defence is where the scoreboard damage gets done.

Roosters weren't hopeless with ball in hand, not entirely. Dominic Young's second try in the 73rd minute and Sandon Smith's four-pointer either side of Broncos scores show they kept trying to find answers. But at 41% possession and a completion rate of 73% against 84%, they simply didn't get enough turns with the ball to make those flashes count. Ten errors to Broncos's eight doesn't sound like much, but combined with the field position it created, it was enough.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as a genuine contest, Roosters rated 1571 to Broncos's 1432 and a margin of just 0.4 points expected. Instead the gap ran out to 36, with the total landing at 64 against a predicted 44. Alphr's model had picked the over on 43.5, so that part landed, but it went 3 from 16 overall on this one and had Roosters as the narrow favourite. Given Broncos came in with the stronger halves rating, 1332 to 1059, and a hooker in the same class, 789 to Roosters's 1127 admittedly favoured Roosters there, the pre-match read undersold how much a dominant halves pairing can do to a game once it gets rolling.

Roosters's recent form had them conceding 27.2 points a game on average. They shipped almost double that here. Broncos, who'd been leaking 35.6 in their own recent losses, looked like an entirely different outfit with the ball in hand. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one's filed firmly under miss for the model, and under statement for Broncos.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 4 | 10 | 14 |
| Broncos | 20 | 30 | 50 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 41% | Possession | **59%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **84%** |
| 1,273 | Run metres | **1,922** |
| 411 | Post-contact metres | **526** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| 8 | Offloads | **17** |
| **85.8%** | Effective tackle % | 84.6% |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 10 | Errors | **8** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 415 | Kick metres | **438** |

**Model Report Card**

Broncos defied the model's 51% prediction for Roosters, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.4 but the actual margin was 36 points. The game's 64 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 44. Broncos led 4–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 3/16 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 22 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Broncos's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Broncos have a 58% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Dominic Young (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 14' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 19' Try — Cory Paix (Broncos) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Jack Gosiewski (Broncos) — 4-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 43' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos) — 4-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 46' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos) — 4-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 53' Try — Ben Hunt (Broncos) — 4-36 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 56' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 4-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 58' Try — Sandon Smith (Roosters) — 8-40 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 66' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 8-44 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 69' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Broncos) — 8-50 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 72' Sin Bin — Brendan Piakura (Broncos) — 8-50 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 73' Try — Dominic Young (Roosters) — 12-50 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $2.00 (edge +19.7%) — model probability 50.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 0 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Roosters and Broncos. The model can't split them, landing on Roosters at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 138 ELO points clear, 1571 to 1432.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 24-18 in 2026 Round 17.

Broncos have won 7 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 8 · Broncos 2 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 24-18 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 32W–28L | 53% |
| Broncos | 35W–25L | 58% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Broncos hold a 5-point edge: 35W–25L (58%) vs Roosters's 32W–28L (53%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Broncos get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -1.2. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 35.6pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | -14.0pts |
| 1651.0m | Run Metres | 1482.2m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 332.8 | Tackles | 344.2 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 2W–3L | 23.2 |
| Broncos | 2W–3L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Broncos | 18 – 24 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R9 | Roosters | 38 – 24 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R6 | Broncos | 16 – 26 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R9 | Broncos | 18 – 40 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R1 | Roosters | 20 – 10 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 21 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 11th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.08/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.96/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 11th) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.44/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 21 | 18 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 180m/g | 183m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 82.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 85 · 45 | 53 · 64 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 721m/g | 639m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.2/g | 18.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.1/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.2% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 19 | 13 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 492m/g | 549m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.15) +13% · Centres 0.79/g (lg 0.7) +13% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.4) +5%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Five-Eighths 0.29/g (lg 0.27) +7% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.21) -5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | no games | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·2·1·2·0) | 5/16g | 20/38g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 79% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | no games | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·1·2·2·0·1·1) | 6/20g | 62/88g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 85% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | CE | no games | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Dominic Young | WG | no games | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·3·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 13/11g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 74' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/11g | 5% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 7 | Chad Townsend | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 4/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Lindsay Collins | PR | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/23g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 5/34g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/12g | 7/21g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Victor Radley | 2R | no games | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 7/34g | 26% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Siua Wong | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | no games | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $10.00 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | no games | 10/10g (2·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 2 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 44' 47' 70' |
| 3 | Deine Mariner | CE | no games | 7/10g (2·2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | no games | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 11/24g | 7/16g | 20% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/26g | 5/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Walters | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Brendan Piakura | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Roosters hold the ELO advantage (1571 vs 1432), but the market favours Broncos (@2.00). The model sides with ELO, Roosters predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1571 · Broncos 1432 · ELO difference: 138 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 945 (best 1052) | 1013 (best 1168) | Broncos +68 |
| Backs | 964 (best 1069) | 924 (best 1007) | Roosters +40 |
| Halves | 1059 (best 1059) | 1332 (best 1332) | Broncos +273 |
| Hooker | 1127 | 789 | Roosters +338 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Roosters favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:41 UTC (latest tip update)