# Raiders v Warriors — NRL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 30 – 8 Warriors

_Raiders raid Warriors._

Half time: 16 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 53% / Warriors 47% · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas · Sun, 02 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Sebastian Kris (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Xavier Savage (26' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Savage (31' Tipped ⚡), Sebastian Kris (44' 1st Tipped ⚡), Matthew Timoko (55') · Warriors: Kurt Capewell (37' Tipped ⚡), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (71')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 53% | Won |
| Warriors | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:41 pm_

Raiders 30–8 Warriors in NRL Round 1 at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders beat Warriors 30-8 at Allegiant Stadium. Look at the missed tackle count though and the final score starts to look tidy by comparison. Warriors missed 44 tackles. Raiders missed 21. That gap is the whole story, and it's worse than a 22-point margin suggests, because Canberra could have had more if they'd wanted it.

Sebastian Kris got things moving inside five minutes, and by the 31st he'd been joined by a double from Xavier Savage to make it 14-0. Kurt Capewell got one back for the Warriors just before the break, but 16-4 at half-time was already a fair reflection of who was on top. Kris added his second in the 44th, Matthew Timoko crossed in the 55th to push it to 26-4, and although Roger Tuivasa-Sheck scored late for Warriors, it arrived after Joseph Tapine had already spent time in the bin. Didn't matter. The game was long done by then.

The line break count tells you why. Raiders broke through six times, Warriors twice. Forty-four tackle busts to 21 backs that up, and 17 offloads to 9 shows Canberra were happy to keep the ball alive in contact rather than just crash it up. Warriors, for what it's worth, actually completed at a higher rate, 75% to 69%, and out-kicked Canberra for territory, 670 metres to 584. None of it counted for much when the guys carrying the ball forward were being asked to make 44 tackles they couldn't finish.

Run metres went Canberra's way too, 1,822 to 1,565, with post-contact metres at 681 to 627. That's a forward pack doing exactly what the pre-match ratings said it should: Raiders forwards rated 1102 to the Warriors' 1052, and the hooker matchup was even more lopsided on paper, 1121 to 1065. Both showed up in the way Canberra kept getting go-forward off the back of quick play-the-balls.

Warriors came into this off an average of 22 points a game across their last five, actually the healthier number of the two sides, with Raiders averaging just 18. On the night neither number mattered. Raiders hit 30, Warriors could only scrape together 8, undone by a defensive effort that leaked points all match rather than any one passage.

Alphr's model had Canberra as 53% favourites and picked the right side, but the margin call was well off, tipping a 1.4-point win instead of the 22 that turned up. The total of 43 was closer to the mark, with the actual combined score landing at 38. Raiders covered the 5.5-point line comfortably in the end. Five from sixteen on this one for the model, which is a reminder that picking the winner and picking how it happens are two different jobs entirely.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Warriors | 4 | 4 | 8 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 69% | Completion rate | **75%** |
| **1,822** | Run metres | 1,565 |
| **681** | Post-contact metres | 627 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 21 |
| **17** | Offloads | 9 |
| **91.3%** | Effective tackle % | 83.2% |
| **21** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| 13 | Errors | 13 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 584 | Kick metres | **670** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.4 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. Raiders led 16–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 5/16 on this match. Raiders covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Raiders have a 58% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 31' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 36' Try — Kurt Capewell (Warriors) — 16-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 44' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 20-4 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 55' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 26-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 64' Sin Bin — Joseph Tapine (Raiders) — 26-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 71' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 28-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $2.60 (edge +8.7%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Raiders and Warriors. The model can't split them, landing on Raiders at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 45 ELO points clear, 1468 to 1422. Form leans Raiders' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Warriors.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Raiders by 1.4, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Warriors have lost 3 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 6, Warriors 3.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Warriors 5 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 40-6 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors away | 7-5 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 28W–20L | 58% |
| Warriors | 14W–18L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Raiders hold a 14-point edge: 28W–20L (58%) vs Warriors's 14W–18L (44%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Warriors get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Raiders's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 30.0pts |
| -10.4pts | Avg Margin | -8.0pts |
| 1579.6m | Run Metres | 1797.8m |
| 3.0 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 372.8 | Tackles | 333.6 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 3W–2L | 18.0 |
| Warriors | 1W–4L | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Warriors | 40 – 6 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R12 | Warriors | 10 – 16 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R20 | Raiders | 20 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R3 | Warriors | 18 – 10 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R21 | Warriors | 21 – 20 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Savage, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Nicoll-Klokstad, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 8th) | 0.83/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.63/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.54/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) | 1.25/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 24 | 17 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 198m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 57 | 47 · 68 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 698m/g | 706m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.5/g | 17.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 81.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 22 | 21 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 555m/g | 634m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.4) +10% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.21) +0% · Wingers 1.25/g (lg 1.26) -1%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30% · Centres 0.82/g (lg 0.7) +17% · 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.46) +13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | no games | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 44' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | no games | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 31' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | no games | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/9g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | LK | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/27g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Taine Tuaupiki | WG | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | no games | 3/8g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | LK | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1468 vs 1422), but the market favours Warriors (@1.63). The model sides with ELO, Raiders predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1468 · Warriors 1422 · ELO difference: 45 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1102 (best 1199) | 1052 (best 1151) | Raiders +50 |
| Backs | 985 (best 1071) | 979 (best 1120) | Raiders +6 |
| Halves | 1094 (best 1094) | 1045 (best 1045) | Raiders +49 |
| Hooker | 1121 | 1065 | Raiders +56 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Raiders predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:41 UTC (latest tip update)