AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Rabbitohs have a 43% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 55% prediction for Dolphins — a notable result. The margin model was sharp — predicting Dolphins by 0.7 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
45%
Dolphins
55%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Dolphins carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1456 vs 1381). Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @2.45
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.4%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.4%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | LLLLL | 17.6 |
Dolphins | WWLLL | 19.2 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Rabbitohs
26.0
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-12.8
Rabbitohs
-6.8
Dolphins
Run Metres
1592
Rabbitohs
1658
Dolphins
Line Breaks
3.4
Rabbitohs
3.6
Dolphins
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Rabbitohs hold a 7‑point edge: 13W–17L (43%) vs Dolphins's 4W–7L (36%) across all games Adam Gee has refereed for each side. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Rabbitohs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1456 vs 1381), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.69).
The model sides with ELO — Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Dolphins predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -0.7
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