Win Probability
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 55% prediction for Dolphins, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 0.7 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 45% win rate under this referee. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
45%
Dolphins
55%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Dolphins carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1456 vs 1381). Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Rabbitohs.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @2.45
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.4%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.4%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | L L L L L | 17.6 |
Dolphins | W W L L L | 19.2 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Rabbitohs
26.0
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-12.8
Rabbitohs
-6.8
Dolphins
Run Metres
1592
Rabbitohs
1658
Dolphins
Line Breaks
3.4
Rabbitohs
3.6
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Rabbitohs hold a 9-point edge: 15W–18L (45%) vs Dolphins's 5W–9L (36%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Dolphins get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Rabbitohs's -0.9. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1456 vs 1381), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.69).
The model sides with ELO, Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Dolphins predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -0.7
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