# Rabbitohs v Dolphins — NRL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 16 – 14 Dolphins

_Rabbitohs hold off a fast-finishing Dolphins._

Half time: 12 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 45% / Dolphins 55% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 07 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Tyrone Munro (11' 1st), Tyrone Munro (24' 1st), Isaiah Tass (67') · Dolphins: Jamayne Isaako (20'), Jamayne Isaako (48'), Max Plath (53')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 55% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm_

Rabbitohs 16–14 Dolphins in NRL Round 1 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Rabbitohs led from the tenth minute and never gave that lead up, but it was never comfortable either. Final score: Rabbitohs 16, Dolphins 14. Two points, and for the last quarter of an hour it felt like less.

Tyrone Munro got the scoreboard moving inside ten minutes, then did it again at the 24th to push Rabbitohs out to 10-4. Jamayne Isaako had already got one back for the Dolphins at the 20th, so the gap never quite settled. At the break it was 12-4, Rabbitohs in front but with a Dolphins outfit that had shown it could find its own points.

That's exactly what happened after halftime. Isaako struck again in the 47th to make it 12-8, and five minutes later Max Plath level it up at 12-12. Suddenly the game that Rabbitohs had led throughout was a genuine contest, decided by whoever blinked first. Isaiah Tass answered in the 67th to put Rabbitohs back in front at 16-14, and that's how it stayed. No further scoring, no more lead changes, just Rabbitohs holding on through the last quarter hour.

The stat sheet tells you why it was that close. Dolphins were the more dangerous side with ball in hand: four line breaks to two, 36 tackle breaks to 20, and 1,774 running metres to 1,691. That matches the pre-match numbers, where the Dolphins backline (1019) and forward pack (1034) both rated above their opposite numbers. Their effective tackle rate of 92.7% against Rabbitohs's 88% also lines up with a Dolphins outfit built to defend as well as it attacks.

What won it for Rabbitohs was cleaner footy and control of the ball. They completed at 85% against Dolphins's 75%, coughed it up just six times to twelve, and dominated territory through 863 kicking metres to 667. Add 583 post-contact metres and a 53% share of possession, and you've got a side that spent more time doing the right things with the ball, even while conceding the physical collisions. Missing 36 tackles to 20 should have cost Rabbitohs more than it did.

Alphr's model had Dolphins as 55% favourites and picked them by 0.7 points on a projected total of 41. The lean made sense on paper: Dolphins arrived with two wins from their last five against Rabbitohs's none, and better underlying form across the board, extra run metres, more line breaks, more tackles completed. Rabbitohs were the form dog in every column that mattered pre-match.

They won anyway. The margin read was close to the mark, 0.7 points predicted against an actual gap of two, just pointing the wrong way. The under on 44.5 landed with the game finishing on 30 combined points. One from three isn't a night to brag about, but the margin model wasn't far off the mood of the contest, even if it backed the wrong team to be standing at the end.

Dolphins will look at four line breaks and 36 tackle breaks and wonder how that becomes a loss. Rabbitohs will just point at the ball in their hands for 53% of the game and the six errors on their side of the ledger. Sometimes that's enough.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| Dolphins | 4 | 10 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| 1,691 | Run metres | **1,774** |
| **583** | Post-contact metres | 538 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 20 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| **9** | Offloads | 8 |
| 88.0% | Effective tackle % | **92.7%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **20** |
| **6** | Errors | 12 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **863** | Kick metres | 667 |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 55% prediction for Dolphins, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 0.7 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Tyrone Munro (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Tyrone Munro (Rabbitohs) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 47' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 52' Try — Max Plath (Dolphins) — 12-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 67' Try — Isaiah Tass (Rabbitohs) — 16-14 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $2.45 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 54.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 55%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 75 ELO points clear, 1456 to 1381. Form leans Dolphins' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Rabbitohs.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 3 wins apiece from the last 6.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Rabbitohs 3 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 32-10 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 16W–20L | 44% |
| Dolphins | 7W–10L | 41% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Rabbitohs 16W–20L (44%) and Dolphins 7W–10L (41%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| -12.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.8pts |
| 1591.6m | Run Metres | 1657.8m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 318.0 | Tackles | 353.0 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 0W–5L | 17.6 |
| Dolphins | 2W–3L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 10 – 32 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R1 | Dolphins | 30 – 40 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R17 | Dolphins | 50 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R19 | Dolphins | 36 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R7 | Dolphins | 14 – 36 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 9th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Walker, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 16th there (1.58 conceded/game). Key man: Farnworth, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.17/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.04/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 12th) | 1.88/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) | 1.08/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 21 | 10 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 223m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 86.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 73 | 66 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 598m/g | 738m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 18.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74% | 77.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 19 | 14 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 573m/g | 470m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.7) +24%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | no games | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Isaiah Tass | WG | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 3 | Jack Wighton | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 2/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | no games | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 5/11g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Tyrone Munro | WG | no games | 6/8g (1·2·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 11' 24' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 7/12g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | no games | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 10 | Davvy Moale | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jai Arrow | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Sullivan | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Siliva Havili | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Tallis Duncan | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 8% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | no games | 8/10g (1·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 56% | — | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 1/3g | 46% | — | 🏉 20' 48' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 2/7g | 3/13g | 42% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 3/8g | 1/1g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Junior Tupou | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 21% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Saifiti | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Max Plath | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 13 | Tom Gilbert | LK | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/16g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1456 vs 1381), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.69). The model sides with ELO, Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1381 · Dolphins 1456 · ELO difference: 75 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1029 (best 1175) | 1034 (best 1132) | Dolphins +6 |
| Backs | 914 (best 978) | 1019 (best 1092) | Dolphins +106 |
| Halves | 1045 (best 1045) | 1059 (best 1059) | Dolphins +13 |
| Hooker | 1128 | 951 | Rabbitohs +177 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-02-28 08:36 UTC (latest tip update)