# Dragons v Bulldogs — NRL Round 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 20 – 28 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs hound Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 50% / Bulldogs 50% · Jubilee Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 08 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Christian Tuipulotu (16' Tipped ⚡), Christian Tuipulotu (55' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Liddle (68'), Christian Tuipulotu (73' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Marcelo Montoya (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Blake Wilson (31'), Connor Tracey (34'), Sitili Tupouniua (45' Tipped ⚡), Sitili Tupouniua (51' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 50% | Lost |
| Bulldogs | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:41 pm_

Dragons 20–28 Bulldogs in NRL Round 1 at Jubilee Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Bulldogs won this by playing the percentages while the Dragons tried to win it with flair. Bulldogs held 55% of the ball, completed at 74%, and used it to grind out 1,799 run metres. Dragons had more offloads, more tackle breaks, a better completion rate on paper doesn't tell the story, and it still added up to an eight-point loss, 28-20, at Jubilee Stadium.

The halves gap pre-match rated the Bulldogs at 1320 against the Dragons' 962, and it showed up early. Marcelo Montoya opened the scoring in the 13th minute, and though Christian Tuipulotu levelled it with a penalty try three minutes later, the Bulldogs didn't need long to reassert themselves. Blake Wilson crossed in the 30th, Connor Tracey followed four minutes after that, and by half-time it was 16-6. That's three tries in the space of twenty-one minutes while the Dragons managed one.

Sitili Tupouniua then did what a strong halves and forward platform lets you do: he crossed twice, in the 45th and 51st minutes, to push it out to 6-26. At that point the Dragons were staring down a 20-point margin with the ball control numbers to match, 45% possession, 68% completion, 15 errors to the Bulldogs' 12.

To their credit, the Dragons didn't fold. Tuipulotu completed his hat-trick in the 55th, Jacob Liddle got over in the 67th, and Tuipulotu struck again in the 72nd to drag it back to 20-28. Three tries in the last quarter of an hour is no small thing, and it lines up with the Dragons' offload count, 14 to the Bulldogs' 6, and their tackle breaks, 35 to 29. When St George Illawarra had the ball in space, they made line breaks count, six apiece with the Bulldogs, but couldn't find the extra metres to turn pressure into more than a respectable scoreline.

Defensively the ledger flips the other way. Bulldogs missed 35 tackles to the Dragons' 29 and conceded 6 penalties to 3, sloppy stuff that let St George Illawarra hang around, but their attack had already done enough damage in that first-half burst to make it academic. Post-contact metres told the same story of forward dominance, 483 to 418, backed by a Bulldogs pack rated 1022 against the Dragons' 1078, close enough on paper but decisive when it mattered with ball in hand.

Form lines had this as a coin toss, Bulldogs winning two of their last five to the Dragons' one, with average margins of minus-3.2 and minus-7.2 respectively suggesting two sides that don't often get the rub of the green. This time the Bulldogs did.

Alphr's model had Bulldogs at 50% and predicted a 2.7-point win, well under the actual 8-point margin, though the shape of it, a tight tussle with a Bulldogs edge, held up fine. The total of 45 was close enough to the final 48. Call it 7 from 16 on the finer details, a middling day at the office, but the top-line read on the contest was sound. Bulldogs covered the line, the over came in, and ambition without control was never quite enough for the Dragons.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 6 | 14 | 20 |
| Bulldogs | 16 | 12 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 68% | Completion rate | **74%** |
| 1,446 | Run metres | **1,799** |
| 418 | Post-contact metres | **483** |
| 6 | Line breaks | 6 |
| **35** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **14** | Offloads | 6 |
| **90.0%** | Effective tackle % | 84.4% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 35 |
| 15 | Errors | **12** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **466** | Kick metres | 433 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 50% probability. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 48, within 3 points. The model went 7/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 8.5-point line. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 47. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 55% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Marcelo Montoya (Bulldogs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Penalty Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 30' Try — Blake Wilson (Bulldogs) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 34' Try — Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 45' Try — Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 51' Try — Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) — 6-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 55' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 10-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 67' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 14-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 72' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 20-28 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.30 (edge -9.6%) — model probability 50.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Dragons and Bulldogs. The model can't split them, landing on Bulldogs at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 69 ELO points clear, 1501 to 1432. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Bulldogs by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Bulldogs have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 44-14 in 2026 Round 25.

Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four. Bulldogs have lost 3 straight.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 2 · Bulldogs 8 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 44-14 |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons at home | 6-6 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 3W–12L | 20% |
| Bulldogs | 6W–5L | 55% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Bulldogs have won 6 of 11 games (55%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 3 from 15 (20%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dragons get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 1694.2m | Run Metres | 1661.6m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 360.2 | Tackles | 346.4 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 23.2 |
| Bulldogs | 2W–3L | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Dragons | 14 – 44 | Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R1 | Bulldogs | 15 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R20 | Bulldogs | 20 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R23 | Dragons | 10 – 28 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R12 | Bulldogs | 44 – 12 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 6th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Su'A, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 11th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Crichton, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 11th) | 1.36/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.58/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.28/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.21/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 22 | 14 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 170m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 57 | 59 · 45 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 677m/g | 779m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.8/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 75.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 25 | 15 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 475m/g | 449m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 88.6% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.46) +7% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.21) +52% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.46) +37% · Fullbacks 0.54/g (lg 0.4) +35%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | no games | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·2·2) | 12/18g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Mathew Feagai | WG | no games | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | no games | 8/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·1·1·0·2) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | no games | 8/10g (0·0·1·1·3·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' 55' 73' |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Emre Guler | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | no games | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 15 | Ryan Couchman | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Raymond Faitala-Mariner | INT | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Hamish Stewart | INT | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 2 | Blake Wilson | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | no games | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 6/4g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | no games | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/12g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | no games | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Kurt Mann | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Bailey Hayward | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | no games | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 51' |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1432 · Bulldogs 1501 · ELO difference: 69 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1078 (best 1236) | 1022 (best 1130) | Dragons +56 |
| Backs | 1022 (best 1073) | 904 (best 936) | Dragons +118 |
| Halves | 962 (best 962) | 1320 (best 1320) | Bulldogs +359 |
| Hooker | 1140 | 1016 | Dragons +124 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dragons |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Dragons predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:41 UTC (latest tip update)