Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 50% probability. The predicted margin of 2.7 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 48, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 44% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
50%
Bulldogs
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Bulldogs a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Bulldogs carry a 69-point ELO rating advantage (1501 vs 1432). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 2.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.6%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-9.6%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | W L L L L | 23.2 |
Bulldogs | W W L L L | 22.8 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Dragons
26.0
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-7.2
Dragons
-3.2
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1694
Dragons
1662
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
4.4
Dragons
4.0
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Bulldogs have won 4 of 9 games (44%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 2 from 13 (15%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dragons get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Dragons predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -2.7
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