AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Storm by 9.0 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 36 — within 5 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Storm
73%
Sharks
27%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sharks. Sharks are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control — but Storm counter with Forward Pack and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Recent form favours Sharks with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 9.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.46
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.6%
Line / Spread
Storm -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.6%
Total Points
Under 41.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | WWWLL | 18.4 |
Sharks | WWWWW | 34.0 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Storm
13.2
Sharks
Avg Margin
-5.6
Storm
20.8
Sharks
Run Metres
1496
Storm
1680
Sharks
Line Breaks
3.8
Storm
5.0
Sharks
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1661 vs 1654), but the market favours Storm (@1.46).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Storm predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +9.0
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