# Broncos v Panthers — NRL Preliminary Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 16 – 14 Panthers

_Broncos rally to stampede past Panthers from 14 down._

Half time: 0 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 47% / Panthers 53% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 28 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Kotoni Staggs (47' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Willison (69'), Deine Mariner (76') · Panthers: Paul Alamoti (11' 1st Tipped 🎯), Paul Alamoti (36' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 53% | Lost |
| Broncos | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Preliminary Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Broncos 16–14 Panthers in NRL Preliminary Finals at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different ideas about how to win a footy match were on show at Suncorp Stadium, and for a long time it looked like the Panthers' version was correct. Broncos wanted the ball in hand and the errors low. Panthers wanted it wide and wanted metres, and for forty minutes that worked a treat. Final score: Broncos 16, Panthers 14. It did not look that way at half-time.

Paul Alamoti did the damage early, scoring in the 10th minute and again in the 35th, and by the break Panthers led 14-0. Both tries carried his name, and on the stats sheet it was easy to see why the visitors felt comfortable: three line breaks to one, 1,832 running metres to 1,626, and 52% of the ball. Ambition was paying off.

Then the second half turned the whole thing on its head. Kotoni Staggs got Broncos moving in the 47th minute, Xavier Willison followed in the 69th, and Deine Mariner completed the turnaround in the 75th to level it at 14-14, before Broncos found the two points that mattered. Three tries, none of them flukes, all of them built off the same platform: field position and completions.

That's where the contrast really shows up. Broncos finished with just 9 errors to Panthers' 11 and completed at 86% to 85%, not a huge gap on paper but enough to keep hold of the ball when it counted. Post-contact metres told the same story in a different accent: Broncos ground out 596 to Panthers' 508, the sign of a forward pack happy to take the hard yards rather than chase the miracle ball. Eight offloads to two suggests they were finding support runners in that grind too.

Panthers had the flashier numbers all night and still lost. More running metres, more line breaks, more of the footy. But their defence leaked 47 missed tackles to Broncos' 41, and an effective tackle rate of 86.0% against the Broncos' 90.2% meant all that early ambition eventually let Broncos back into it through the same channels Panthers had been exploiting themselves.

The formline made sense of some of this too. Broncos arrived averaging 36.2 points a game across their last five, with an average margin of 13.8, well clear of Panthers' 5.6. Panthers' halves rating of 1,138 to Broncos' 950 explains why they could ask more of the ball early, but Broncos' superior forward and back ratings, 1,096 to 1,010 up front and 1,154 to 1,119 out wide, are exactly the kind of edges that show up late, not early.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 0 | 16 | 16 |
| Panthers | 14 | 0 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 85% |
| 1,626 | Run metres | **1,832** |
| **596** | Post-contact metres | 508 |
| 1 | Line breaks | **3** |
| **47** | Tackle breaks | 41 |
| **8** | Offloads | 2 |
| **90.2%** | Effective tackle % | 86.0% |
| **41** | Missed tackles | 47 |
| **9** | Errors | 11 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **802** | Kick metres | 725 |

**Model Report Card**

Broncos defied the model's 53% prediction for Panthers, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Broncos by 0.6 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Broncos trailed 0–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–14. The model went 5/16 on this match. Broncos covered the 1.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Broncos bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 68% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 35' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 47' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +11 pts
- 69' Try — Xavier Willison (Broncos) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 75' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 14-14 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.72 (edge -5.2%) — model probability 52.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Broncos and Panthers. The model can't split them, landing on Panthers at 53%. Form leans Broncos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Panthers.

On paper Broncos shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Panthers, which says Halves Control carry the most weight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Panthers have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Broncos took the most recent meeting 14-12 in 2026 Round 20.

Broncos have won 7 straight; Broncos are 10-3 at home this year. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

Broncos come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 3 · Panthers 7 |
| Last meeting | Broncos 14-12 |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos at home | 10-3 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |
| Rest gap | Broncos 14d · Panthers 7d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 25W–28L | 47% |
| Panthers | 27W–13L | 68% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Panthers have won 27 of 40 games (68%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 25 from 53 (47%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Panthers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Broncos's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 36.2pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| 13.8pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1801.2m | Run Metres | 1665.4m |
| 8.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 329.4 | Tackles | 378.6 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 5W–0L | 36.2 |
| Panthers | 3W–2L | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Panthers | 12 – 14 | Broncos |
| 2026 | R1 | Broncos | 0 – 26 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R9 | Panthers | 32 – 8 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R18 | Broncos | 6 – 14 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R3 | Panthers | 34 – 12 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 11th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Staggs, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.54 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 10th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: McLean, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.52/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th) | 1.54/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.88/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 8th) | 1.69/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.24/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 12 | 13 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 123m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 84.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 78 · 59 | 66 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 714m/g | 795m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.4/g | 17.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 80.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 16 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 593m/g | 497m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.45/g (lg 0.44) +2% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.42) -10%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Centres 0.74/g (lg 0.69) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 13 in 19g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·1) | 3/7g | 20/35g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 11 in 11g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 7/14g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 11 in 22g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1·0·1) | 3/10g | 42/79g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 16 in 23g | 8/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/3g | 11/19g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 9 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 9/26g | 46% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 26/112g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/19g | 9/58g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/51g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 3 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/41g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 8/80g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 4/26g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 13/66g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Smoothy | LK | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/30g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ezra Mam | INT | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/5g | 19/35g | 48% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 2 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/57g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 3 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/29g | 10% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 17 | Ben Talty | INT | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 33% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 6 in 19g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/19g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 15 in 23g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·3) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' 36' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 7 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 4/10g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 16 in 24g | 10/10g (0·2·1·1·2·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 6/9g | 7/13g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 6 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 6 in 21g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 5/13g | 8/18g | 36% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 4 in 25g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 1/22g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Papali'i | INT | 7 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 4/11g | 4/13g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/11g | 22% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1632 vs 1617), but the market favours Panthers (@1.72). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1632 · Panthers 1617 · ELO difference: 15 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1096 (best 1341) | 1010 (best 1248) | Broncos +86 |
| Backs | 1154 (best 1200) | 1119 (best 1217) | Broncos +35 |
| Halves | 950 (best 950) | 1138 (best 1138) | Panthers +188 |
| Hooker | 929 | 874 | Broncos +55 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Panthers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)