# Storm v Broncos — NRL Grand Final 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 22 – 26 Broncos

_Broncos rally to stampede past Storm from 10 down._

Half time: 22 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 73% / Broncos 27% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 05 Oct, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Nick Meaney (7'), Eliesa Katoa (14' Tipped ⚡), Will Warbrick (21' Tipped ⚡), Jahrome Hughes (35') · Broncos: Deine Mariner (2' 1st Tipped ⚡), Reece Walsh (30' Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (45' Tipped ⚡), Deine Mariner (55' 1st Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (57' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 73% | Lost |
| Broncos | 27% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.5 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Grand Final 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 08:43 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 22–26 Broncos in NRL Grand Final at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm went about this one the tidy way, holding the ball, working through the phases, doing enough to lead 22-12 at the break. Broncos went about it the other way: fewer touches, more damage per touch. By full time it was the Broncos' method that had the scoreboard, 26-22.

The opening stretch suggested it might go to script. Deine Mariner crossed inside two minutes to put Broncos up 0-4, but Storm answered through Nick Meaney, Eliesa Katoa and Will Warbrick to surge to 16-6 by the 21st minute. A Reece Walsh try dragged Broncos back to 16-10, and Jahrome Hughes restored a two-score buffer at 20-12 before the break. Storm led 22-12 at half-time and, on the numbers, deserved to.

Then the shape of the game changed. Gehamat Shibasaki got Broncos within six just after the resumption, Mariner's second try at the 54th minute made it a two-point game, and Shibasaki's second, three minutes later, put Broncos in front for good at 22-24. Storm never got the lead back, and a Trent Loiero sin bin at the 77th minute summed up how the last quarter went for them.

The stat sheet explains why the fightback landed. Broncos ran 1,761 metres to Storm's 1,705, backed it up with 558 post-contact metres to 485, and broke 51 tackles to Storm's 38. That's a side making defenders miss and grinding extra metres after the hit, which is a hard way to defend for 80 minutes. Storm's line held at 85.0% effective, competitive enough, but Broncos' 86.9% and 38 missed tackles against Storm's 51 tells you who was doing the chasing.

Ball control mattered too, just not the way the pre-match numbers suggested it would. Broncos actually completed at 85% to Storm's 80% and coughed up only 7 errors to 11, despite carrying less possession, 51% to 49%. Add 8 line breaks to 6 and 659 kick metres to 571, and Broncos were the side controlling both the ball and the field when it counted.

None of that lines up with what Broncos brought into the game on paper. Storm rated ahead everywhere that matters, forwards 1117 to 1112, backs 1142 to 1043, halves 1135 to 1111, hooker 1125 to 1046, and arrived with the better recent scoring differential too. Broncos' form line told a different story though: three wins from their last five to Storm's one, and an average winning margin of better than 15 points against Storm's under 9. Whatever the ratings said, Broncos have been the side finishing games well lately, and they did it again here.

Alphr's model had Storm favourites at 73%, expected them by 6.5 points and picked a combined total of 42. The total wasn't far off, 48 points in the end. The margin direction was the miss, Broncos by 4 rather than Storm by 6.5, which is the kind of gap that turns a good process into the wrong tip. The model went 5 from 16 for the round. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| Broncos | 12 | 14 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 80% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,705 | Run metres | **1,761** |
| 485 | Post-contact metres | **558** |
| 6 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 38 | Tackle breaks | **51** |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| 85.0% | Effective tackle % | **86.9%** |
| 51 | Missed tackles | **38** |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 571 | Kick metres | **659** |

**Model Report Card**

Broncos defied the model's 73% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 48, within 6 points. Broncos trailed 22–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–26. The model went 5/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 5 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Broncos bucked the trend, Storm historically win 64% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 7' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 13' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 21' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 30' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 16-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 34' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 20-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 45' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 22-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 54' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 22-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 57' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 22-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 77' Sin Bin — Trent Loiero (Storm) — 22-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.45 (edge +3.2%) — model probability 72.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm @ $1.91 (edge +3.2%) — model probability 72.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 52.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 7

### Match Preview (pre-match read)


**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 6 · Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Storm 46-20 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 35W–20L | 64% |
| Broncos | 25W–28L | 47% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 35 of 55 games (64%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 25 from 53 (47%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Storm get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Broncos's -0.1.

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Broncos | 20 – 46 | Storm |
| 2026 | R3 | Storm | 14 – 18 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R27 | Broncos | 30 – 14 | Storm |
| 2025 | R23 | Storm | 22 – 2 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R27 | Broncos | 12 – 50 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.08 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 7th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Papenhuyzen, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.23 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 5th there (1.04 conceded/game). Key man: Staggs, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 2.08/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.85/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.19/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.23/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 6 | 17 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 121m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 86.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 70 · 61 | 80 · 61 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 702m/g | 715m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.8/g | 20.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.9% | 79.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 6 | 12 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 528m/g | 588m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 11.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Centres 0.73/g (lg 0.69) +6%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.34/g (lg 1.26) +6% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.69) -13% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.1) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 15 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 8/8g | 4/6g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 4 in 6g | 9/10g (3·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 7/5g | 3/4g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 15% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 9 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 6/23g | 26% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 20 in 21g | 10/10g (0·3·0·1·2·2·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 0/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 2/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 7 in 19g | 5/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 12/13g | 3/10g | 36% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 5 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/8g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 5 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 13 in 25g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/8g | 0/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 7 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Ativalu Lisati | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 13 in 20g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·1·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 11 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 12 in 23g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·2·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/11g | 2/9g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 16 in 24g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 57' |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 10 in 19g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 3/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 2' 55' |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/22g | 3/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 12/63g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ezra Mam | INT | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/6g | 3/3g | 44% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 2 in 26g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Xavier Willison | INT | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)