Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 73% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 48, within 6 points. Broncos trailed 22–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–26. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
73%
Broncos
27%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Broncos. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 33-point ELO rating advantage (1619 vs 1585). Recent form favours Broncos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 6.5 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.2%
Line / Spread
Storm @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.2%
Total Points
Under @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W L L L L | 15.9 |
Broncos | W W W L L | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
25.1
Storm
17.7
Broncos
Avg Margin
8.7
Storm
15.3
Broncos
Run Metres
1562
Storm
1241
Broncos
Line Breaks
6.9
Storm
4.5
Broncos
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Storm predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +6.5
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.