# Warriors v Panthers — NRL Finals Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 8 – 24 Panthers

_Panthers pounce on Warriors._

Half time: 2 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 45% / Panthers 55% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 13 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Leka Halasima (52' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Isaiah Papali'i (27' 1st Tipped ⚡), Bradley Schneider (46'), Casey McLean (66' Tipped ⚡), Brian To'o (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 55% | Won |
| Warriors | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.0 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Finals Week 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 8–24 Panthers in NRL Finals Week 1 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two points to six at the break, and nothing about that scoreline suggested what was coming. Panthers led narrowly at Go Media Stadium off the back of Isaiah Papali'i's try in the 27th minute, and the Warriors were still within a converted try of parity at the interval. By full time it was 24-8. The second half didn't just extend the margin, it rewrote the whole complexion of the contest.

Bradley Schneider put Panthers out to 10-2 in the 46th minute, and from there the Warriors were always playing catch-up. Leka Halasima got them back into it with a try in the 52nd, making it 12-6 and still very much alive. But Casey McLean restored the buffer in the 65th, Brian To'o added another in the 71st, and by the time the Warriors caught breath it was 22-8 and the contest was over in all but name.

The stat sheet explains why Panthers could afford to be patient early and ruthless late. They ran for 1,748 metres to the Warriors' 1,394, made 624 post-contact metres to 523, and busted 45 tackles to the Warriors' 31. That's a forward-pack and back-three story as much as anything, and it lines up with the pre-match ratings: Panthers went in rated higher across forwards, backs, halves and hooker, and every one of those edges showed up in the collision stats.

Discipline with the ball told too. Panthers coughed it up just 9 times against 16 for the Warriors, and completed at 83% to 72%. Add in 749 kick metres to 613 and 56% of the ball, and you've got a side that controlled both territory and possession without needing to force anything. Line breaks were locked at 3 apiece, which says the Warriors weren't without ideas going forward. They just couldn't finish enough sets to make them count, and their own line lacked the same protection, missing 45 tackles to the Panthers' 31.

Isaiah Papali'i and Halasima did what they could for the home side, but one four-try haul spread across Papali'i, Schneider, McLean and To'o for Panthers was always going to outweigh a two-try return. Papali'i, in fact, was on both sides of the ledger, opening the scoring and finishing as one of the Panthers' own four-try contributors.

Form lines had this pegged too. Panthers arrived averaging 25.2 points a game with a positive margin over their last five, the Warriors sitting on minus-1. Neither side had lost the plot lately, both at 2-2 in the last five, but the underlying numbers, run metres, tackle busts, line breaks, all favoured Panthers going in, and all of them showed up again here.

Alphr's model had Panthers at 55% and predicted a 4-point win. The actual margin was 16, and Panthers covered the 7.5-point line comfortably. A reasonable read on the winner, undercooked on the gap. The half-time margin might have looked tight, but the shape of this one was set well before the Warriors ever got their hands on it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Panthers | 6 | 18 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| 72% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| 1,394 | Run metres | **1,748** |
| 523 | Post-contact metres | **624** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **45** |
| 5 | Offloads | **8** |
| 88.0% | Effective tackle % | **90.5%** |
| 45 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| 16 | Errors | **9** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 613 | Kick metres | **749** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. Panthers led 2–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 6/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 7.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 11 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Panthers have a 68% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 27' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 2-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 46' Try — Bradley Schneider (Panthers) — 2-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 52' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 6-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 65' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 8-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 71' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 8-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.35 (edge -21.7%) — model probability 55.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 55%, but Warriors stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 119 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1447.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 4.0, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 23.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Warriors have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 28-12 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 14W–18L | 44% |
| Panthers | 27W–13L | 68% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Panthers have won 27 of 40 games (68%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 14 from 32 (44%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Panthers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Warriors's -0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -1.0pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts |
| 1659.4m | Run Metres | 1780.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 339.0 | Tackles | 394.8 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 2W–3L | 21.6 |
| Panthers | 2W–3L | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Warriors | 28 – 12 | Panthers |
| 2026 | R13 | Panthers | 20 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R16 | Warriors | 18 – 28 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R11 | Warriors | 22 – 20 | Panthers |
| 2023 | FW1 | Panthers | 32 – 6 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 11th-ranked right edge attack (1.04 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 7th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Pompey, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 14th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: McLean, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.54/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.21/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.96/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 10 | 11 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 193m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 85% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 44 · 58 | 59 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 684m/g | 792m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.2/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 80% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 16 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 532m/g | 500m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.45/g (lg 0.44) +2% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.42) -10%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.69) -1% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.42) -2% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 1.25) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/10g | 6/27g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/11g | 20/33g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 11 in 24g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 1/8g | 8/32g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 12 in 18g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 3/17g | 15/55g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 8 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 12/26g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/32g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/27g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | CE | 12 in 24g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 6/12g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 12 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 5/24g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | Replacement | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 12 in 21g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 7 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 15 in 22g | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·2·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 5 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/9g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 5 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/10g | 3/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Luke Sommerton | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 4 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | HK | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Isaiah Papali'i | INT | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 3/23g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.25 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1447 · Panthers 1566 · ELO difference: 119 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1130 (best 1364) | 1145 (best 1284) | Panthers +15 |
| Backs | 1058 (best 1175) | 1132 (best 1185) | Panthers +74 |
| Halves | 1129 (best 1129) | 1163 (best 1163) | Panthers +34 |
| Hooker | 999 | 1072 | Panthers +73 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Panthers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)