# Storm v Bulldogs — NRL Finals Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 26 – 18 Bulldogs

_Storm thunder past Bulldogs._

Half time: 14 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 69% / Bulldogs 31% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Fri, 12 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Eliesa Katoa (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Ativalu Lisati (34'), Tyran Wishart (66'), Will Warbrick (77' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Toby Sexton (20'), Jacob Kiraz (30' Tipped ⚡), Matt Burton (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 69% | Won |
| Bulldogs | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Finals Week 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 26–18 Bulldogs in NRL Finals Week 1 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm led 14-12 at the break but it was the last quarter that decided this one. Bulldogs hit the front again through Matt Burton in the 57th to make it 14-16, their third lead change of the afternoon, and for a few minutes it looked like Canterbury might steal it. Tyran Wishart levelled things at 18-18 in the 65th, and eleven minutes later Will Warbrick put Storm in front for good. Final score: Storm 26, Bulldogs 18.

It was that kind of contest early. Katoa opened the scoring inside three minutes, Sexton hit back for the Bulldogs at 20, Kiraz put Canterbury in front at 29, and Lisati dragged Storm level again before half-time. Four lead changes in a game that finished with the home side eight points clear. Tight all night, until it wasn't.

The stat sheet explains why Storm found the extra gear when it mattered. Melbourne ran for 1,785 metres to the Bulldogs' 1,658, and did more of the hard yards after contact too, 631 to 557. Six line breaks to two is the number that stands out most. Storm busted 61 tackles to Canterbury's 31, which goes a long way to explaining why the Bulldogs defence leaked 61 missed tackles of its own, nearly double Storm's 31. Melbourne's effective tackle rate of 87.1% against 83.5% backs that up. When one side is that much harder to hold, field position starts to matter less than what happens after the collision.

Canterbury were actually the tidier side with the footy, completing at 79% to Storm's 82% and coughing up just 10 errors to 11, with one more offload in the bargain. None of it mattered much without go-forward. Storm held 52% of possession and 897 kicking metres to 868, enough control to keep asking questions Canterbury couldn't answer in defence. Penalties were even enough not to matter, three against Storm to four against the Bulldogs.

Go back to the numbers going in and this result makes more sense than the ladder positions might suggest. The Bulldogs came in rated stronger up front, in the halves and across the backline: forwards 1098 to 1041, halves 1173 to 1130, backs 1026 to 932. Storm's one big edge was at hooker, 933 to 600, and on this evidence that mattered more than the forward pack disparity. Canterbury's form line had them averaging 6.4 line breaks a game over their last five, more than double Storm's 3.6, yet on the night it was Storm doing the damage out wide, six line breaks to two.

Form coming in had the sides close to level. Storm had won three of their last five, Bulldogs two, and Canterbury actually carried the better average margin of the two, minus 0.4 points a game to Storm's minus 3.2. None of that showed up on the AAMI Park scoreboard, where Storm's extra polish in contact told.

Alphr's model had Storm favourites at 69% and picked the margin at 7 points, close enough to the actual 8. Its total score prediction of 42 sat within two points of the real total of 44, and the over on 37.5 landed. Storm covered the 4.5-point line too. Add it up and the model went 8 from 16 on this one, a reasonable night's work given how tight the contest read for long stretches before Melbourne's back end took over.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| Bulldogs | 12 | 6 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 79% |
| **1,785** | Run metres | 1,658 |
| **631** | Post-contact metres | 557 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **61** | Tackle breaks | 31 |
| 11 | Offloads | **12** |
| **87.1%** | Effective tackle % | 83.5% |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 61 |
| 11 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **897** | Kick metres | 868 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 69% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Storm by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 44, within 2 points. The model went 8/16 on this match. Storm covered the 4.5-point line. The over 37.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Storm have a 68% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 20' Try — Toby Sexton (Bulldogs) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 29' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 8-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 34' Try — Ativalu Lisati (Storm) — 12-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 57' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 65' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 76' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 24-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.50 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 68.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 7 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 69% to see off Bulldogs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 93 ELO points clear, 1635 to 1542. Form leans Storm's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Bulldogs.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Storm by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 36-22 in 2026 Round 22.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Storm have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 7 · Bulldogs 3 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 36-22 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 30W–14L | 68% |
| Bulldogs | 16W–14L | 53% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Storm have won 30 of 44 games (68%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 16 from 30 (53%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1508.8m | Run Metres | 1501.0m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 357.6 | Tackles | 346.0 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 3W–2L | 17.6 |
| Bulldogs | 2W–3L | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Storm | 22 – 36 | Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R12 | Bulldogs | 30 – 20 | Storm |
| 2025 | R25 | Storm | 20 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R6 | Storm | 16 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R2 | Storm | 12 – 26 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 4th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Coates, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 5th there (1.04 conceded/game). Key man: Preston, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.13/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.96/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.17/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.29/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 5 | 12 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 230m/g | 208m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 66 · 57 | 43 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 696m/g | 764m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.1% | 81.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 6 | 27 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 530m/g | 446m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.69) +3%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.33/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.69) -13% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.1) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Meaney | FB | 9 in 19g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 19/42g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·3·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 12/23g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 3 | Grant Anderson | CE | 11 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 6/24g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Joe Chan | 2R | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 19 in 19g | 12/10g (3·0·0·3·0·1·2·2·1·0) | 5/5g | 41/37g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 34/99g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 6 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/39g | 26% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 17/45g | 32% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 5 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 7/44g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Ativalu Lisati | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 4% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 12 in 23g | 7/10g (1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 13/32g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 4 in 22g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/45g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jonah Pezet | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/30g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 1 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/50g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Bronson Garlick | Replacement | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | — | — |
| 3 | Enari Tuala | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 3/8g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Blake Wilson | Replacement | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 58' |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/12g | 1/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 11 in 20g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 6/19g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Curran | PR | 4 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1635 · Bulldogs 1542 · ELO difference: 93 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1041 (best 1242) | 1098 (best 1283) | Bulldogs +57 |
| Backs | 932 (best 988) | 1026 (best 1152) | Bulldogs +94 |
| Halves | 1130 (best 1130) | 1173 (best 1173) | Bulldogs +43 |
| Hooker | 933 | 600 | Storm +333 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Storm predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)