# Sharks v Roosters — NRL Finals Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 20 – 10 Roosters

_Sharks devour Roosters._

Half time: 12 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 46% / Roosters 54% · Sharks Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 13 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Ronaldo Mulitalo (34' Tipped ⚡), Ronaldo Mulitalo (39' Tipped ⚡), Toby Rudolf (75') · Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (23' 1st Tipped 🎯), Angus Crichton (47')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 54% | Lost |
| Sharks | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.2 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Finals Week 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 20–10 Roosters in NRL Finals Week 1 at Sharks Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had the Roosters shading this one, 54% to win, up by 1.2 points, with 45 total points on the board by full time. The Sharks won 20-10. So much for that.

The total was the bigger miss. Thirty points, fifteen shy of the projection, and the under 46.5 call landed clean. The margin, oddly enough, wasn't far off at all. The model said 1.2, the game produced 10. Close enough on paper, wrong team entirely.

Mark Nawaqanitawase put the Roosters up 4-0 in the 23rd minute, and for a moment the model's read looked sound. Then Ronaldo Mulitalo scored twice inside five minutes, 34' and 39', to flip it to 10-4, and the Sharks went to the break 12-4 up. Angus Crichton got one back at 47' to make it 12-8, but Toby Rudolf's try at 75' pushed the margin out to 18-10 and the Sharks saw it home, 20-10.

The Roosters' backs came in rated well clear, 1129 to 966, and the halves and forwards were tighter but still favoured them. That class showed up in exactly the way you'd expect: 5 line breaks to 3, and a genuinely lopsided 41 tackle breaks to 22. When the Roosters got quick ball they made the Sharks work for every metre in the tackle, outdoing them on post-contact metres too, 533 to 510.

None of that mattered as much as the ball itself. Sharks completed at 79% to the Roosters' 68%, and made only 11 errors to 16. That's the gap that actually decided it. A team that can't hold the ball can't use its line-break edge, and the Roosters spent large stretches handing possession straight back.

The Sharks' hooker rating, 973 against the Roosters' 703, was the widest positional gap on the sheet, and it lines up with how the Sharks played the arm wrestle. They ran up 758 kicking metres to 521, territory built through the boot rather than through beating defenders. They didn't need to break the line as often when they were putting the Roosters back in their own half all day.

Defensively the ledger flips again. Sharks missed 41 tackles to the Roosters' 22, and the Roosters' effective tackle rate, 91.0% to 87.2%, says their line was the tighter one. It's a genuine oddity of this result: the worse defensive side by the numbers still walked away with the win, because the ball security gap was that decisive.

Form-wise, the Roosters arrived scoring more (36.4 to 32.8) and winning by more (22.4 to 17.2) across their last five, both sides level at four wins apiece. On the night, the side that looked after the football took it. Run metres were close, 1,513 to 1,493, and offloads dead even at 7 apiece, so this wasn't a game either side dominated in the collision. It came down to who coughed it up, and the Sharks simply didn't.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 12 | 8 | 20 |
| Roosters | 4 | 6 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 68% |
| **1,513** | Run metres | 1,493 |
| 510 | Post-contact metres | **533** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 22 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| 7 | Offloads | 7 |
| 87.2% | Effective tackle % | **91.0%** |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **22** |
| **11** | Errors | 16 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **758** | Kick metres | 521 |

**Model Report Card**

Sharks defied the model's 54% prediction for Roosters, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 30 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 17 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Sharks's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Sharks have a 68% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 23' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 34' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 47' Try — Angus Crichton (Roosters) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 75' Try — Toby Rudolf (Sharks) — 18-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.67 (edge -5.1%) — model probability 54.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 1 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 54%, but Sharks stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 55 ELO points clear, 1654 to 1599.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 1.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 46-10 in 2026 Round 29.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 4 · Roosters 6 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 46-10 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters away | 7-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 13W–6L | 68% |
| Roosters | 8W–8L | 50% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 13 of 19 games (68%), significantly stronger than Roosters's 8 from 16 (50%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Roosters's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 32.8pts | Avg Score | 36.4pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Margin | 22.4pts |
| 1682.6m | Run Metres | 1588.4m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 337.0 | Tackles | 298.6 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 4W–1L | 32.8 |
| Roosters | 4W–1L | 36.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Roosters | 46 – 10 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R16 | Roosters | 27 – 8 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R6 | Sharks | 22 – 34 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R20 | Sharks | 31 – 18 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R12 | Roosters | 42 – 16 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.92 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 10th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Kennedy, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 11th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 19 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.54/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.58/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.92/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.83/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 11th) | 1.21/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 13 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 183m/g | 162m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 55 · 50 | 74 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 741m/g | 717m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.8/g | 19.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 81.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 16 | 16 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 516m/g | 496m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Centres 0.76/g (lg 0.69) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sharks Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 8 in 24g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 3/7g | 5/7g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 10 in 11g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/5g | 46% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 14 in 23g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·2·3·0) | 6/8g | 8/9g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 39' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 7 in 23g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 5/10g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.75 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 24g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/10g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 6 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 3/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 3 in 24g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 4% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/10g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/7g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 11 in 24g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 8/16g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 19 in 23g | 13/10g (1·1·2·1·2·0·2·3·0·1) | 14/16g | 1/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 23 in 23g | 12/10g (2·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·4·3) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 23' |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | INT | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 12 | Victor Radley | 2R | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Naufahu Whyte | LK | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Egan Butcher | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Siua Wong | INT | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1599 · Roosters 1654 · ELO difference: 55 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1064 (best 1264) | 1100 (best 1297) | Roosters +36 |
| Backs | 966 (best 1032) | 1129 (best 1200) | Roosters +163 |
| Halves | 1260 (best 1260) | 1237 (best 1237) | Sharks +23 |
| Hooker | 973 | 703 | Sharks +270 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Roosters predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)