AI Game Review
Sharks defied the model's 54% prediction for Roosters — a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 30 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
46%
Roosters
54%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1654 vs 1599). The margin model predicts Roosters by 1.2 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.67
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.1%
Line / Spread
Roosters +2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.1%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWWWL | 32.8 |
Roosters | WWWWL | 36.4 |
Avg Conceded
15.6
Sharks
14.0
Roosters
Avg Margin
17.2
Sharks
22.4
Roosters
Run Metres
1683
Sharks
1588
Roosters
Line Breaks
5.2
Sharks
6.4
Roosters
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Roosters predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -1.2
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