# Raiders v Broncos — NRL Finals Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 28 – 29 Broncos

_Broncos hit back to stampede past Raiders._

Half time: 18 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 57% / Broncos 43% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 14 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Hudson Young (11'), Sebastian Kris (21'), Kaeo Weekes (34'), Kaeo Weekes (53'), Ethan Strange (56' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Kotoni Staggs (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Deine Mariner (26' Tipped ⚡), Reece Walsh (66' Tipped ⚡), Josiah Karapani (69' Tipped ⚡), Gehamat Shibasaki (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 57% | Lost |
| Broncos | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.0 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Finals Week 1 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 28–29 Broncos in NRL Finals Week 1 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixty-seven missed tackles. That's the number that undoes the Raiders in this one, and it's why Canberra walked out of GIO Stadium having led for most of the night and still lost 29-28 to the Broncos.

The Raiders were up 18-12 at half-time and looked to be building a genuine buffer. Hudson Young, Sebastian Kris and Kaeo Weekes had crossed, and when Weekes grabbed his second in the 53rd minute to make it 22-12, then Ethan Strange followed two minutes later for 28-12, the game had the shape of a rout. Both sides had a man in the bin around then, Young and Reece Walsh at 52, Patrick Carrigan for Brisbane at 55. None of it mattered for long.

Walsh scored the moment he was back on the field, in the 65th minute, and the Broncos didn't stop. Josiah Karapani crossed at 69, Gehamat Shibasaki at 72, and suddenly a 16-point lead was gone. Ben Hunt settled it with a field goal in the 93rd minute. Twenty-eight points built over 55 minutes, hunted down and overtaken in the last half hour.

The stat sheet explains how. Brisbane ran 2,197 metres to 1,787, and turned that into 638 post-contact metres against 525. Sixty-seven tackle breaks to 35 tells you the Broncos forwards and outside backs were getting go-forward nobody could arrest, and 15 offloads to 9 kept the ball alive through contact when the Raiders thought they'd made the stop. Add 7 line breaks to 4 and 80% completion to 72%, and you've got a side that held the ball, ran it hard, and rarely gave it back cheaply. Brisbane's 57% possession share was less about domination and more about never handing Canberra the chance to extend.

The positional ratings flagged this before kick-off. Brisbane's backs were rated 1088 to the Raiders' 777, the biggest gap on the sheet, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect: out wide, in broken play, in Walsh's and Shibasaki's tries. Canberra's edge was in the halves, 1265 to 1092, and early on that showed too, with quick ball getting Young, Kris and Weekes over. But a stronger halves pairing couldn't keep feeding a forward pack that was being worn down, and Canberra's missed tackle count, almost double Brisbane's 35, was the cost of chasing a game that kept slipping away in the tackle.

Alphr's model had Canberra by 2 going in, on ratings of 1600 to 1612, with Brisbane's 4-1 recent form and 30.8-point scoring average clearly not enough to flip the head-to-head pick. The final margin landed at 1 point, so the model's read on how close it would be was sound. It just backed the wrong side to be still standing at the end. Seven from sixteen for the round.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 18 | 10 | 28 |
| Broncos | 12 | 17 | 29 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 43% | Possession | **57%** |
| 72% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| 1,787 | Run metres | **2,197** |
| 525 | Post-contact metres | **638** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 35 | Tackle breaks | **67** |
| 9 | Offloads | **15** |
| 82.9% | Effective tackle % | **88.8%** |
| 67 | Missed tackles | **35** |
| 17 | Errors | **12** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 592 | Kick metres | **683** |

**Model Report Card**

Broncos defied the model's 57% prediction for Raiders, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Raiders by 2.0 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Broncos trailed 18–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–29. The model went 7/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 57 points was 14 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Broncos's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Broncos have a 57% win rate under this referee. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 11' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 21' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Deine Mariner (Broncos) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 33' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 52' Sin Bin — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 52' Sin Bin — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 53' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 55' Sin Bin — Patrick Carrigan (Broncos) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 55' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 65' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 28-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 69' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 28-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 72' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 28-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 93' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Ben Hunt (Broncos) — 28-29 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.65 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 57%, but Broncos stay live at 43%. Form leans Broncos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Raiders.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Raiders by 2.0, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Broncos have won 7 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 6, Broncos 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Broncos 5 |
| Last meeting | Broncos 34-30 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 25W–29L | 46% |
| Broncos | 29W–22L | 57% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Broncos hold a 11-point edge: 29W–22L (57%) vs Raiders's 25W–29L (46%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Raiders get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Broncos's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 30.8pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -2.0pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 1484.2m | Run Metres | 1669.6m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 354.8 | Tackles | 330.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 3W–2L | 21.6 |
| Broncos | 4W–1L | 30.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Raiders | 30 – 34 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R2 | Raiders | 32 – 22 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R7 | Broncos | 34 – 10 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R26 | Raiders | 18 – 29 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R6 | Broncos | 14 – 20 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.13 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 7th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Shibasaki, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.46/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 2.13/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.92/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.08/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.92/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.21/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 6 | 17 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 160m/g | 121m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 86.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 53 · 58 | 73 · 56 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 664m/g | 702m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.5/g | 19.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.1% | 79.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 16 | 12 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 593m/g | 587m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 91% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Centres 0.73/g (lg 0.69) +6%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Centres 0.97/g (lg 0.69) +41% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.44) +11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 9 in 23g | 6/10g (0·0·1·3·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 10/23g | 38% | — | 🏉 34' 53' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/7g | 37% | — | — |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 10 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 18/49g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 8 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 20/49g | 24% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 5 | Jed Stuart | WG | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 13 in 23g | 9/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·3·1·1) | 0/2g | 9/21g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 3/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 30/131g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 4 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/56g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 10/93g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 10 in 20g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 23/60g | 32% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/15g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 3/44g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 2 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | INT | 7 in 22g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 4/17g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/31g | 4% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 12 in 18g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·2) | 3/7g | 1/3g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (2·2·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 10 in 21g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 15 in 22g | 9/10g (2·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 6 | Billy Walters | 5/8 | 7 in 24g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | HB | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyson Smoothy | INT | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 2 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Ben Talty | INT | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 17 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1612 vs 1600), but the market favours Raiders (@1.65). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1600 · Broncos 1612 · ELO difference: 12 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1130 (best 1337) | 1033 (best 1236) | Raiders +97 |
| Backs | 777 (best 895) | 1088 (best 1183) | Broncos +311 |
| Halves | 1265 (best 1265) | 1092 (best 1092) | Raiders +173 |
| Hooker | 919 | 1027 | Broncos +108 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Raiders predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)