# NRL Round 5 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 5 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 5 at a glance
- 8 matches · 14W–10L on 24 settled picks (58% strike rate) · best value +27.8% edge

## Round 5 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos v Wests Tigers | Broncos @ $1.22 | Broncos 65% | WON |
| Rabbitohs v Roosters | Rabbitohs @ $1.80 | Rabbitohs 64% | WON |
| Panthers v Cowboys | Panthers @ $1.22 | Panthers 69% | LOST |
| Titans v Dolphins | Titans @ $1.48 | Titans 52% | LOST |
| Eels v Dragons | Dragons @ $1.55 | Dragons 57% | LOST |
| Bulldogs v Knights | Bulldogs @ $1.46 | Bulldogs 51% | WON |
| Raiders v Sharks | Sharks @ $1.50 | Sharks 59% | LOST |
| Sea Eagles v Storm | Storm @ $1.55 | Storm 60% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Broncos v Wests Tigers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 65.2% / Wests Tigers 34.8%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.22 (edge -21.7%) — model probability 65.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 10 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-broncos-v-wests-tigers

### Rabbitohs v Roosters
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 63.9% / Roosters 36.1%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.80 (edge +4.4%) — model probability 63.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 3 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-rabbitohs-v-roosters

### Panthers v Cowboys
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 68.7% / Cowboys 31.4%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.22 (edge -14.0%) — model probability 68.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 12 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-panthers-v-cowboys

### Titans v Dolphins
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 51.8% / Dolphins 48.2%
- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.48 (edge -13.6%) — model probability 51.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -13.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 4 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-titans-v-dolphins

### Eels v Dragons
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 43.1% / Dragons 56.9%
- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.55 (edge -7.6%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 2 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-eels-v-dragons

### Bulldogs v Knights
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 50.8% / Knights 49.2%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.46 (edge -16.8%) — model probability 50.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -16.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 4 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-bulldogs-v-knights

### Raiders v Sharks
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 40.6% / Sharks 59.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 59.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-raiders-v-sharks

### Sea Eagles v Storm
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · 4 Pines Park · Round 5
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 40.1% / Storm 59.9%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.55 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 59.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 2 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r5-sea-eagles-v-storm

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/4 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/4.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/6 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/6.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/5
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC