# NRL Round 3 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 3 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 3 at a glance
- 8 matches · 19W–5L on 24 settled picks (79% strike rate) · best value +31.5% edge

## Round 3 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks v Rabbitohs | Sharks @ $1.18 | Sharks 74% | WON |
| Sea Eagles v Raiders | Sea Eagles @ $1.52 | Sea Eagles 68% | WON |
| Broncos v Cowboys | Broncos @ $1.22 | Broncos 69% | WON |
| Titans v Knights | Titans @ $1.90 | Titans 53% | WON |
| Warriors v Roosters | Warriors @ $1.74 | Warriors 55% | WON |
| Dolphins v Wests Tigers | Dolphins @ $2.00 | Dolphins 60% | LOST |
| Eels v Bulldogs | Bulldogs @ $1.50 | Bulldogs 60% | WON |
| Storm v Panthers | Storm @ $1.43 | Storm 72% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Sharks v Rabbitohs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Sharks Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 74.3% / Rabbitohs 25.7%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.18 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 74.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +31.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 14 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-sharks-v-rabbitohs

### Sea Eagles v Raiders
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · 4 Pines Park · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 68.4% / Raiders 31.6%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.52 (edge +9.9%) — model probability 68.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 4 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-sea-eagles-v-raiders

### Broncos v Cowboys
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 69.4% / Cowboys 30.6%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.22 (edge -19.1%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -13.5 @ $1.91 (edge -19.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +25.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 14 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-broncos-v-cowboys

### Titans v Knights
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 53.4% / Knights 46.6%
- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.90 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 2 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-titans-v-knights

### Warriors v Roosters
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Go Media Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 54.8% / Roosters 45.2%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.74 (edge +2.4%) — model probability 54.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-warriors-v-roosters

### Dolphins v Wests Tigers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Kayo Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 59.6% / Wests Tigers 40.4%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $2.00 (edge +3.1%) — model probability 59.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 4 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-dolphins-v-wests-tigers

### Eels v Bulldogs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 40.0% / Bulldogs 60.0%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.50 (edge -12.0%) — model probability 60.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-eels-v-bulldogs

### Storm v Panthers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 72.0% / Panthers 28.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.43 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 8 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r3-storm-v-panthers

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/2 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/2.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/4 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/4.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/3
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC