# NRL Finals Week 1 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Finals Week 1 of the 2025 season — 4 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Finals Week 1 at a glance
- 4 matches · 6W–6L on 12 settled picks (50% strike rate) · best value +13.5% edge

## Finals Week 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm v Bulldogs | Storm @ $1.50 | Storm 69% | WON |
| Warriors v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.35 | Panthers 55% | WON |
| Raiders v Broncos | Raiders @ $1.65 | Raiders 57% | LOST |
| Sharks v Roosters | Roosters @ $1.67 | Roosters 54% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Storm v Bulldogs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 68.9% / Bulldogs 31.1%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.50 (edge +40.0%) — model probability 68.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +40.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 7 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-fw1-storm-v-bulldogs

### Warriors v Panthers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Go Media Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 44.8% / Panthers 55.2%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.35 (edge -21.7%) — model probability 55.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -21.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-fw1-warriors-v-panthers

### Raiders v Broncos
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 56.9% / Broncos 43.1%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.65 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 2 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-fw1-raiders-v-broncos

### Sharks v Roosters
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Sharks Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 45.9% / Roosters 54.1%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.67 (edge -5.1%) — model probability 54.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.1%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 1 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-fw1-sharks-v-roosters

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/27 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/27.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/29 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/29.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/28
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC