# NRL Round 26 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 26 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 26 at a glance
- 8 matches · 11W–13L on 24 settled picks (46% strike rate) · best value +35.1% edge

## Round 26 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs v Panthers | Bulldogs @ $2.40 | Bulldogs 74% | WON |
| Raiders v Wests Tigers | Raiders @ $1.26 | Raiders 73% | WON |
| Dolphins v Titans | Dolphins @ $1.65 | Dolphins 59% | WON |
| Cowboys v Broncos | Broncos @ $1.50 | Broncos 66% | WON |
| Sharks v Knights | Sharks @ $1.12 | Sharks 73% | WON |
| Dragons v Sea Eagles | Dragons @ $1.95 | Dragons 55% | LOST |
| Storm v Roosters | Storm @ $1.48 | Storm 63% | LOST |
| Warriors v Eels | Warriors @ $1.56 | Warriors 68% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Bulldogs v Panthers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 73.7% / Panthers 26.3%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $2.40 (edge -18.1%) — model probability 73.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 32.5 @ $1.91 (edge +35.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 12 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r26-bulldogs-v-panthers

### Raiders v Wests Tigers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 72.9% / Wests Tigers 27.1%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.26 (edge -9.8%) — model probability 72.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 12 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r26-raiders-v-wests-tigers

### Dolphins v Titans
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 58.6% / Titans 41.4%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.65 (edge -11.8%) — model probability 58.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +23.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r26-dolphins-v-titans

### Cowboys v Broncos
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 34.2% / Broncos 65.8%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 65.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r26-cowboys-v-broncos

### Sharks v Knights
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Sharks Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 73.1% / Knights 26.9%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.12 (edge -18.6%) — model probability 73.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -16.5 @ $1.91 (edge -18.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 10 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r26-sharks-v-knights

### Dragons v Sea Eagles
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Jubilee Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 55.0% / Sea Eagles 45.0%
- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.95 (edge +4.5%) — model probability 55.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 3 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r26-dragons-v-sea-eagles

### Storm v Roosters
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 63.0% / Roosters 37.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.48 (edge +7.7%) — model probability 63.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 1 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r26-storm-v-roosters

### Warriors v Eels
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Go Media Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 67.9% / Eels 32.1%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.56 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 67.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 6 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r26-warriors-v-eels

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/25 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/25.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/27 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/27.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/26
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:26 UTC