# NRL Round 23 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 23 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 23 at a glance
- 8 matches · 14W–10L on 24 settled picks (58% strike rate) · best value +27.2% edge

## Round 23 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins v Roosters | Dolphins @ $1.95 | Dolphins 56% | LOST |
| Bulldogs v Warriors | Bulldogs @ $1.30 | Bulldogs 70% | WON |
| Titans v Rabbitohs | Titans @ $1.49 | Titans 58% | LOST |
| Raiders v Sea Eagles | Raiders @ $1.42 | Raiders 75% | WON |
| Storm v Broncos | Storm @ $1.47 | Storm 63% | WON |
| Eels v Cowboys | Eels @ $1.62 | Eels 66% | WON |
| Dragons v Sharks | Sharks @ $1.50 | Sharks 60% | LOST |
| Knights v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.25 | Panthers 72% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Dolphins v Roosters
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 55.7% / Roosters 44.3%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.95 (edge +6.9%) — model probability 55.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +27.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 38
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-dolphins-v-roosters

### Bulldogs v Warriors
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 70.4% / Warriors 29.6%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.30 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 70.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 6 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-bulldogs-v-warriors

### Titans v Rabbitohs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 57.9% / Rabbitohs 42.1%
- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.49 (edge -4.3%) — model probability 57.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +21.9%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 4 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-titans-v-rabbitohs

### Raiders v Sea Eagles
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 74.8% / Sea Eagles 25.2%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.42 (edge +4.4%) — model probability 74.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 10 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-raiders-v-sea-eagles

### Storm v Broncos
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 63.1% / Broncos 36.9%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.47 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 63.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-storm-v-broncos

### Eels v Cowboys
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 66.0% / Cowboys 34.0%
- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.62 (edge +3.2%) — model probability 66.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 6 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-eels-v-cowboys

### Dragons v Sharks
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Jubilee Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 40.0% / Sharks 60.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -9.5%) — model probability 60.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 5 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-dragons-v-sharks

### Knights v Panthers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 27.9% / Panthers 72.1%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.25 (edge -9.8%) — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge -100.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r23-knights-v-panthers

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/22 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/22.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/24 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/24.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/23
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC