# NRL Round 22 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 22 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 22 at a glance
- 8 matches · 16W–8L on 24 settled picks (67% strike rate) · best value +10.4% edge

## Round 22 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks v Cowboys | Sharks @ $1.38 | Sharks 72% | WON |
| Dragons v Raiders | Raiders @ $1.45 | Raiders 66% | LOST |
| Broncos v Rabbitohs | Broncos @ $1.18 | Broncos 75% | WON |
| Sea Eagles v Roosters | Sea Eagles @ $1.72 | Sea Eagles 55% | LOST |
| Wests Tigers v Bulldogs | Bulldogs @ $1.24 | Bulldogs 68% | LOST |
| Warriors v Dolphins | Dolphins @ $2.10 | Dolphins 63% | WON |
| Eels v Storm | Storm @ $1.35 | Storm 65% | WON |
| Titans v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.24 | Panthers 72% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Sharks v Cowboys
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Sharks Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 72.3% / Cowboys 27.7%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.38 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 72.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 8 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r22-sharks-v-cowboys

### Dragons v Raiders
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · WIN Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 34.4% / Raiders 65.6%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.45 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 65.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +9.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 4 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r22-dragons-v-raiders

### Broncos v Rabbitohs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 74.6% / Rabbitohs 25.4%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.18 (edge -15.5%) — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -15.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 9 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r22-broncos-v-rabbitohs

### Sea Eagles v Roosters
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · 4 Pines Park · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 55.4% / Roosters 44.6%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.72 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 55.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 0 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r22-sea-eagles-v-roosters

### Wests Tigers v Bulldogs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 32.3% / Bulldogs 67.7%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.24 (edge -9.2%) — model probability 67.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r22-wests-tigers-v-bulldogs

### Warriors v Dolphins
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Go Media Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 36.6% / Dolphins 63.4%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $2.10 (edge +50.0%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +50.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 7 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r22-warriors-v-dolphins

### Eels v Storm
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 35.0% / Storm 65.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.35 (edge -10.8%) — model probability 65.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -10.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge -100.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 5 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r22-eels-v-storm

### Titans v Panthers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 27.6% / Panthers 72.4%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.24 (edge -11.0%) — model probability 72.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r22-titans-v-panthers

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/21 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/21.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/23 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/23.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/22
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC