# NRL Round 17 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 17 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 17 at a glance
- 8 matches · 18W–6L on 24 settled picks (75% strike rate) · best value +18.2% edge

## Round 17 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles @ $1.54 | Sea Eagles 72% | WON |
| Dolphins v Rabbitohs | Dolphins @ $1.56 | Dolphins 62% | WON |
| Storm v Sharks | Storm @ $1.33 | Storm 75% | WON |
| Dragons v Eels | Dragons @ $1.63 | Dragons 63% | WON |
| Titans v Cowboys | Cowboys @ $1.65 | Cowboys 62% | WON |
| Panthers v Bulldogs | Bulldogs @ $1.72 | Bulldogs 51% | LOST |
| Broncos v Warriors | Broncos @ $1.50 | Broncos 59% | WON |
| Knights v Raiders | Raiders @ $1.34 | Raiders 53% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · 4 Pines Park · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 72.0% / Wests Tigers 28.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.54 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +18.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 13 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r17-sea-eagles-v-wests-tigers

### Dolphins v Rabbitohs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 61.9% / Rabbitohs 38.1%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.56 (edge -60.0%) — model probability 61.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -60.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 6 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r17-dolphins-v-rabbitohs

### Storm v Sharks
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 75.4% / Sharks 24.6%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.33 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 75.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 8 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r17-storm-v-sharks

### Dragons v Eels
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · WIN Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 62.9% / Eels 37.1%
- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.63 (edge +3.4%) — model probability 62.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +6.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 4 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r17-dragons-v-eels

### Titans v Cowboys
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 38.0% / Cowboys 62.0%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.65 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 62.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.5%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +3.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 1 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r17-titans-v-cowboys

### Panthers v Bulldogs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 49.1% / Bulldogs 50.9%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.72 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 50.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge -3.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 0 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r17-panthers-v-bulldogs

### Broncos v Warriors
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 59.0% / Warriors 41.0%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge -7.2%) — model probability 59.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.2%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +80.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r17-broncos-v-warriors

### Knights v Raiders
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 17
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 47.5% / Raiders 52.5%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.34 (edge -14.6%) — model probability 52.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +70.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r17-knights-v-raiders

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/16 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/16.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/18 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/18.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/17
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC