# NRL Round 16 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 16 of the 2025 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 16 at a glance
- 7 matches · 11W–10L on 21 settled picks (52% strike rate) · best value +22.8% edge

## Round 16 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins v Knights | Dolphins @ $1.34 | Dolphins 71% | LOST |
| Broncos v Sharks | Broncos @ $1.50 | Broncos 57% | WON |
| Eels v Titans | Titans @ $1.80 | Titans 58% | LOST |
| Roosters v Cowboys | Roosters @ $1.48 | Roosters 69% | WON |
| Warriors v Panthers | Warriors @ $1.26 | Warriors 70% | LOST |
| Rabbitohs v Storm | Storm @ $1.40 | Storm 70% | WON |
| Wests Tigers v Raiders | Raiders @ $1.35 | Raiders 67% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Dolphins v Knights
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · HBF Park · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 70.8% / Knights 29.2%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.34 (edge -9.2%) — model probability 70.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +22.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 10 · Predicted total: 38
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-dolphins-v-knights

### Broncos v Sharks
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 57.1% / Sharks 42.9%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge -7.4%) — model probability 57.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +11.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-broncos-v-sharks

### Eels v Titans
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 41.7% / Titans 58.3%
- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.80 (edge +10.0%) — model probability 58.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Titans by 3 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-eels-v-titans

### Roosters v Cowboys
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Allianz Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 68.7% / Cowboys 31.3%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.48 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 68.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -4.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 8 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-roosters-v-cowboys

### Warriors v Panthers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Go Media Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 70.3% / Panthers 29.7%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.26 (edge -12.4%) — model probability 70.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 38
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-warriors-v-panthers

### Rabbitohs v Storm
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 29.8% / Storm 70.2%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.40 (edge -11.8%) — model probability 70.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 9 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-rabbitohs-v-storm

### Wests Tigers v Raiders
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Campbelltown Sports Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 32.6% / Raiders 67.4%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.35 (edge -8.3%) — model probability 67.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.3%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 4 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r16-wests-tigers-v-raiders

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/15 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/15.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/17 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/17.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/16
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 05:35 UTC