# NRL Round 14 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 14 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 14 at a glance
- 8 matches · 15W–9L on 24 settled picks (63% strike rate) · best value +20.2% edge

## Round 14 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm v Cowboys | Storm @ $1.23 | Storm 74% | WON |
| Knights v Sea Eagles | Sea Eagles @ $1.53 | Sea Eagles 57% | LOST |
| Broncos v Titans | Broncos @ $1.40 | Broncos 71% | WON |
| Dolphins v Dragons | Dolphins @ $1.60 | Dolphins 61% | WON |
| Raiders v Rabbitohs | Raiders @ $1.40 | Raiders 70% | WON |
| Bulldogs v Eels | Bulldogs @ $1.40 | Bulldogs 67% | WON |
| Wests Tigers v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.30 | Panthers 66% | WON |
| Sharks v Warriors | Sharks @ $1.45 | Sharks 70% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Storm v Cowboys
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 74.2% / Cowboys 25.8%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.23 (edge -9.8%) — model probability 74.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.8%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 14 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-storm-v-cowboys

### Knights v Sea Eagles
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 42.5% / Sea Eagles 57.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.53 (edge -14.0%) — model probability 57.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -14.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +16.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-knights-v-sea-eagles

### Broncos v Titans
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 70.9% / Titans 29.1%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.40 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 70.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 10 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-broncos-v-titans

### Dolphins v Dragons
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 61.5% / Dragons 38.5%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.60 (edge -6.1%) — model probability 61.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 6 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-dolphins-v-dragons

### Raiders v Rabbitohs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 70.0% / Rabbitohs 29.9%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.40 (edge -90.0%) — model probability 70.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -90.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 8 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-raiders-v-rabbitohs

### Bulldogs v Eels
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 67.4% / Eels 32.6%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.40 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 67.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +12.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-bulldogs-v-eels

### Wests Tigers v Panthers
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 34.1% / Panthers 65.9%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.30 (edge -11.6%) — model probability 65.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -11.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge -60.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 7 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-wests-tigers-v-panthers

### Sharks v Warriors
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Sharks Stadium · Round 14
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 70.0% / Warriors 30.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.45 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 70.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.5%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge -100.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 7 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r14-sharks-v-warriors

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/13 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/13.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/15 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/15.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/14
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:26 UTC