# NRL Round 11 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 11 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 11 at a glance
- 8 matches · 10W–14L on 24 settled picks (42% strike rate) · best value +20.5% edge

## Round 11 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys v Sea Eagles | Cowboys @ $1.74 | Cowboys 65% | LOST |
| Broncos v Dragons | Broncos @ $1.30 | Broncos 68% | LOST |
| Bulldogs v Roosters | Bulldogs @ $1.37 | Bulldogs 74% | WON |
| Dolphins v Warriors | Dolphins @ $1.95 | Dolphins 57% | LOST |
| Raiders v Titans | Raiders @ $1.35 | Raiders 68% | WON |
| Wests Tigers v Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs @ $1.90 | Rabbitohs 53% | WON |
| Sharks v Storm | Storm @ $1.60 | Storm 60% | LOST |
| Knights v Eels | Knights @ $1.68 | Knights 53% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Cowboys v Sea Eagles
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 64.6% / Sea Eagles 35.4%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.74 (edge +7.8%) — model probability 64.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +20.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 3 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r11-cowboys-v-sea-eagles

### Broncos v Dragons
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 68.0% / Dragons 32.0%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.30 (edge -9.6%) — model probability 68.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 9 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r11-broncos-v-dragons

### Bulldogs v Roosters
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 73.8% / Roosters 26.2%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.37 (edge +8.0%) — model probability 73.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 7 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r11-bulldogs-v-roosters

### Dolphins v Warriors
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 56.8% / Warriors 43.2%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.95 (edge +7.7%) — model probability 56.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r11-dolphins-v-warriors

### Raiders v Titans
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 68.2% / Titans 31.8%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.35 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 68.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 10 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r11-raiders-v-titans

### Wests Tigers v Rabbitohs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Campbelltown Sports Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 47.1% / Rabbitohs 52.9%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.90 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 52.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.3%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.7%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 1 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r11-wests-tigers-v-rabbitohs

### Sharks v Storm
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Sharks Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 40.2% / Storm 59.8%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.60 (edge -6.9%) — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -6.9%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 6 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r11-sharks-v-storm

### Knights v Eels
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 52.9% / Eels 47.1%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.68 (edge +2.4%) — model probability 52.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge -70.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 1 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r11-knights-v-eels

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/10 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/10.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/12 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/12.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/11
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 05:36 UTC