# NRL Round 1 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 1 of the 2025 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 1 at a glance
- 8 matches · 14W–10L on 24 settled picks (58% strike rate) · best value +29.9% edge

## Round 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers v Knights | Knights @ $2.15 | Knights 51% | WON |
| Roosters v Broncos | Roosters @ $2.00 | Roosters 51% | LOST |
| Storm v Eels | Storm @ $1.25 | Storm 65% | WON |
| Panthers v Sharks | Panthers @ $1.58 | Panthers 72% | WON |
| Dragons v Bulldogs | Bulldogs @ $1.30 | Dragons 50% | WON |
| Sea Eagles v Cowboys | Sea Eagles @ $1.60 | Sea Eagles 69% | WON |
| Raiders v Warriors | Raiders @ $2.60 | Raiders 53% | WON |
| Rabbitohs v Dolphins | Dolphins @ $2.45 | Dolphins 55% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Wests Tigers v Knights
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Campbelltown Sports Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 49.1% / Knights 50.9%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $2.15 (edge -9.7%) — model probability 50.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 27.5 @ $1.91 (edge +29.9%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 4 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r1-wests-tigers-v-knights

### Roosters v Broncos
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Allianz Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 50.5% / Broncos 49.5%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $2.00 (edge +19.7%) — model probability 50.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.7%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 0 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r1-roosters-v-broncos

### Storm v Eels
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 65.2% / Eels 34.8%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.25 (edge -26.6%) — model probability 65.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge -26.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +17.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 13 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r1-storm-v-eels

### Panthers v Sharks
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Allegiant Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 71.6% / Sharks 28.4%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.58 (edge +13.4%) — model probability 71.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 0 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r1-panthers-v-sharks

### Dragons v Bulldogs
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Jubilee Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 49.8% / Bulldogs 50.2%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.30 (edge -9.6%) — model probability 50.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge -9.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +13.2%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 3 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r1-dragons-v-bulldogs

### Sea Eagles v Cowboys
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · 4 Pines Park · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 69.0% / Cowboys 31.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.60 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.9%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 10 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r1-sea-eagles-v-cowboys

### Raiders v Warriors
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · Allegiant Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 53.4% / Warriors 46.6%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $2.60 (edge +8.7%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r1-raiders-v-warriors

### Rabbitohs v Dolphins
Sat, 28 Feb, 07:36 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 45.1% / Dolphins 54.9%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $2.45 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 54.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2025-r1-rabbitohs-v-dolphins

## Model performance (2025)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 61.5% | 131/213 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 60.4% | 128/212 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.8% | 114/212 |

## More NRL predictions
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/2 (markdown: /nrl/2025/round/2.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/2025/round/1
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC