# NFL Week 5 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 5 of the 2026 season — 15 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 5 at a glance
- 15 matches · 60 picks pending · best value +8.7% edge

## Week 5 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys v Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Dallas Cowboys @ $1.20 | Dallas Cowboys 75% | — |
| Jacksonville Jaguars v Philadelphia Eagles | Jacksonville Jaguars @ $1.27 | Jacksonville Jaguars 70% | — |
| Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans | Houston Texans @ $1.24 | Houston Texans 64% | — |
| Washington Commanders v New York Giants | Washington Commanders @ $1.52 | Washington Commanders 56% | — |
| New York Jets v Cleveland Browns | Cleveland Browns @ $2.10 | Cleveland Browns 55% | +7.2% |
| New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders | New England Patriots @ $1.49 | New England Patriots 74% | +7.2% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers v Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts @ $2.13 | Indianapolis Colts 53% | +5.6% |
| New Orleans Saints v Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings @ $1.75 | Minnesota Vikings 63% | +6.3% |
| Miami Dolphins v Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals @ $1.25 | Cincinnati Bengals 77% | — |
| Los Angeles Chargers v Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos @ $1.52 | Denver Broncos 69% | +2.8% |
| Arizona Cardinals v Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions @ $1.42 | Detroit Lions 71% | +0.9% |
| Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears @ $1.64 | Chicago Bears 70% | +8.7% |
| Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks @ $1.58 | Seattle Seahawks 63% | — |
| Atlanta Falcons v Baltimore Ravens | Atlanta Falcons @ $1.55 | Atlanta Falcons 55% | — |
| Los Angeles Rams v Buffalo Bills | Los Angeles Rams @ $1.61 | Los Angeles Rams 50% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Dallas Cowboys v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fri, 09 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT · AT&T Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Dallas Cowboys 74.6% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25.4%
- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.20 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 74.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 @ $1.90 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 51.0%
- **Margin Band:** Dallas Cowboys 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 39.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 8 · Predicted total: 54
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-dallas-cowboys-v-tampa-bay-buccaneers

### Jacksonville Jaguars v Philadelphia Eagles
Mon, 12 Oct, 12:30 am AEDT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 69.6% / Philadelphia Eagles 30.4%
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.27 (edge -9.2%) — model probability 69.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 @ $1.83 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 52.0%
- **Margin Band:** Jacksonville Jaguars 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 39.7%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-jacksonville-jaguars-v-philadelphia-eagles

### Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans
Mon, 12 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Nissan Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Tennessee Titans 36.5% / Houston Texans 63.5%
- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.24 (edge -17.1%) — model probability 63.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +7.5 @ $1.82 (edge +4.5%) — model probability 59.4%
- **Margin Band:** Houston Texans 1-13 @ $2.07 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 39.0%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 37.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 1 · Predicted total: 37
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-tennessee-titans-v-houston-texans

### Washington Commanders v New York Giants
Mon, 12 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Northwest Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Washington Commanders 56.1% / New York Giants 43.9%
- **Head to Head:** Washington Commanders to win @ $1.52 (edge -9.7%) — model probability 56.1%
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 53.0%
- **Margin Band:** Washington Commanders 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -9.1%) — model probability 37.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Washington Commanders by 1 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-washington-commanders-v-new-york-giants

### New York Jets v Cleveland Browns
Mon, 12 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · MetLife Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: New York Jets 45.1% / Cleveland Browns 54.9%
- **Head to Head:** Cleveland Browns to win @ $2.10 (edge +7.2%) — model probability 54.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +2.5 @ $1.86 (edge +3.3%) — model probability 57.0%
- **Margin Band:** Cleveland Browns 1-13 @ $2.60 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 34.0%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.98 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Cleveland Browns by 3 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-new-york-jets-v-cleveland-browns

### New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 12 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Gillette Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: New England Patriots 74.4% / Las Vegas Raiders 25.6%
- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.49 (edge +7.2%) — model probability 74.4%
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots -3.5 @ $1.89 (edge +10.0%) — model probability 62.9%
- **Margin Band:** New England Patriots 1-13 @ $2.12 (edge -7.5%) — model probability 39.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.84 (edge -4.3%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 13 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-new-england-patriots-v-las-vegas-raiders

### Pittsburgh Steelers v Indianapolis Colts
Mon, 12 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Acrisure Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 47.4% / Indianapolis Colts 52.6%
- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $2.13 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 52.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.7%) — model probability 56.3%
- **Margin Band:** Indianapolis Colts 1-13 @ $2.65 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 33.7%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.98 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 2 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-pittsburgh-steelers-v-indianapolis-colts

### New Orleans Saints v Minnesota Vikings
Mon, 12 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Caesars Superdome · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: New Orleans Saints 36.6% / Minnesota Vikings 63.4%
- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.75 (edge +6.3%) — model probability 63.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -2.5 @ $1.94 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 55.4%
- **Margin Band:** Minnesota Vikings 1-13 @ $2.35 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 38.8%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.95 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 6 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-new-orleans-saints-v-minnesota-vikings

### Miami Dolphins v Cincinnati Bengals
Mon, 12 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Hard Rock Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Miami Dolphins 23.3% / Cincinnati Bengals 76.7%
- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.25 (edge -3.3%) — model probability 76.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 @ $1.98 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 51.8%
- **Margin Band:** Cincinnati Bengals 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.9%) — model probability 39.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 9 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-miami-dolphins-v-cincinnati-bengals

### Los Angeles Chargers v Denver Broncos
Mon, 12 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT · SoFi Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 31.4% / Denver Broncos 68.6%
- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.52 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 68.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -3.5 @ $1.98 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 52.2%
- **Margin Band:** Denver Broncos 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -7.7%) — model probability 38.8%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-los-angeles-chargers-v-denver-broncos

### Arizona Cardinals v Detroit Lions
Mon, 12 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · State Farm Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Arizona Cardinals 28.6% / Detroit Lions 71.4%
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.42 (edge +0.9%) — model probability 71.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -4.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.0%) — model probability 54.8%
- **Margin Band:** Detroit Lions 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 39.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 53.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 54
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-arizona-cardinals-v-detroit-lions

### Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears
Mon, 12 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · Lambeau Field · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Green Bay Packers 30.3% / Chicago Bears 69.7%
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.64 (edge +8.7%) — model probability 69.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears -2.5 @ $1.83 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 59.7%
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 39.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 10 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-green-bay-packers-v-chicago-bears

### Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers
Mon, 12 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · Lumen Field · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Seattle Seahawks 62.8% / San Francisco 49ers 37.2%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.58 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 62.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ $2.06 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 51.5%
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -7.9%) — model probability 38.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.83 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 5 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-seattle-seahawks-v-san-francisco-49ers

### Atlanta Falcons v Baltimore Ravens
Mon, 12 Oct, 11:20 am AEDT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Atlanta Falcons 54.5% / Baltimore Ravens 45.5%
- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $1.55 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 54.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens +3.5 @ $1.83 (edge -3.9%) — model probability 50.8%
- **Margin Band:** Atlanta Falcons 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 38.1%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 3 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-atlanta-falcons-v-baltimore-ravens

### Los Angeles Rams v Buffalo Bills
Tue, 13 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT · SoFi Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Rams 50.0% / Buffalo Bills 50.0%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.61 (edge -12.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills +2.5 @ $2.06 (edge +4.9%) — model probability 53.4%
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -8.2%) — model probability 36.3%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 54.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 0 · Predicted total: 57
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r5-los-angeles-rams-v-buffalo-bills

## Model performance (2026)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/round/4 (markdown: /nfl/round/4.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-07 06:55 UTC (latest tip update)