# NFL Week 4 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 4 of the 2026 season — 16 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 4 at a glance
- 16 matches · 28W–36L on 64 settled picks (44% strike rate) · best value +10.9% edge

## Week 4 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns v Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns @ $2.19 | Cleveland Browns 54% | WON |
| Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts @ $1.49 | Indianapolis Colts 64% | WON |
| Houston Texans v Dallas Cowboys | Houston Texans @ $1.69 | Houston Texans 56% | LOST |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers @ $1.50 | Green Bay Packers 58% | WON |
| Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills @ $1.29 | Buffalo Bills 84% | LOST |
| New York Giants v Arizona Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals @ $1.79 | Arizona Cardinals 58% | LOST |
| Philadelphia Eagles v Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams @ $1.62 | Los Angeles Rams 54% | WON |
| Baltimore Ravens v Tennessee Titans | Baltimore Ravens @ $1.13 | Baltimore Ravens 91% | WON |
| Cincinnati Bengals v Jacksonville Jaguars | Cincinnati Bengals @ $1.72 | Cincinnati Bengals 60% | LOST |
| Chicago Bears v New York Jets | Chicago Bears @ $1.55 | Chicago Bears 62% | WON |
| Minnesota Vikings v Miami Dolphins | Minnesota Vikings @ $1.15 | Minnesota Vikings 82% | WON |
| Las Vegas Raiders v Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs @ $1.44 | Kansas City Chiefs 69% | WON |
| Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Chargers | Seattle Seahawks @ $1.25 | Seattle Seahawks 83% | WON |
| San Francisco 49ers v Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos @ $2.27 | Denver Broncos 54% | LOST |
| Carolina Panthers v Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions @ $1.48 | Detroit Lions 68% | LOST |
| New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons @ $2.23 | Atlanta Falcons 55% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Cleveland Browns v Pittsburgh Steelers
Fri, 02 Oct, 10:15 am AEST · Huntington Bank Field · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Cleveland Browns 54.3% / Pittsburgh Steelers 45.7%
- **Head to Head:** Cleveland Browns to win @ $2.19 (edge +8.6%) — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +2.5 @ $1.93 (edge +7.7%) — model probability 59.5% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Cleveland Browns 1-13 @ $2.70 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 35.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 38.5 @ $1.98 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cleveland Browns by 5 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-cleveland-browns-v-pittsburgh-steelers

### Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts
Mon, 05 Oct, 12:30 am AEDT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Washington Commanders 35.5% / Indianapolis Colts 64.5%
- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.49 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 64.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts -3.5 @ $1.89 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 53.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Indianapolis Colts 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.9%) — model probability 39.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.83 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 6 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-washington-commanders-v-indianapolis-colts

### Houston Texans v Dallas Cowboys
Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Reliant Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Houston Texans 55.7% / Dallas Cowboys 44.3%
- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.69 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 55.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys +2.5 @ $1.96 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 50.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Houston Texans 1-13 @ $2.35 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 37.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-houston-texans-v-dallas-cowboys

### Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Green Bay Packers
Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Raymond James Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41.9% / Green Bay Packers 58.1%
- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.50 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 58.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 @ $1.97 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Green Bay Packers 1-13 @ $2.35 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 37.0% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 0 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-tampa-bay-buccaneers-v-green-bay-packers

### Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots
Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Highmark Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Buffalo Bills 83.9% / New England Patriots 16.1%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.29 (edge +6.3%) — model probability 83.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills -6.5 @ $1.85 (edge +7.9%) — model probability 61.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Buffalo Bills 14+ @ $2.95 (edge +6.0%) — model probability 39.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 15 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-buffalo-bills-v-new-england-patriots

### New York Giants v Arizona Cardinals
Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · MetLife Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: New York Giants 42.3% / Arizona Cardinals 57.7%
- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $1.79 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 57.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals -1.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.6%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Arizona Cardinals 1-13 @ $2.35 (edge -5.1%) — model probability 37.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.97 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 4 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-new-york-giants-v-arizona-cardinals

### Philadelphia Eagles v Los Angeles Rams
Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Lincoln Financial Field · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 45.5% / Los Angeles Rams 54.5%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.62 (edge -7.2%) — model probability 54.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @ $1.79 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 54.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.30 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 37.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 0 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-philadelphia-eagles-v-los-angeles-rams

### Baltimore Ravens v Tennessee Titans
Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · M&T Bank Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Baltimore Ravens 90.6% / Tennessee Titans 9.4%
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.13 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 90.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.0%) — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 14+ @ $2.05 (edge +7.5%) — model probability 56.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 21 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-baltimore-ravens-v-tennessee-titans

### Cincinnati Bengals v Jacksonville Jaguars
Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Paycor Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 59.7% / Jacksonville Jaguars 40.3%
- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.72 (edge +1.5%) — model probability 59.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cincinnati Bengals 1-13 @ $2.30 (edge -5.2%) — model probability 38.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.95 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 5 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-cincinnati-bengals-v-jacksonville-jaguars

### Chicago Bears v New York Jets
Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Soldier Field · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Chicago Bears 62.2% / New York Jets 37.8%
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.55 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 62.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +3.5 @ $1.84 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 50.4% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -7.2%) — model probability 38.2% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.98 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 3 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-chicago-bears-v-new-york-jets

### Minnesota Vikings v Miami Dolphins
Mon, 05 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Minnesota Vikings 82.5% / Miami Dolphins 17.5%
- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.15 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 82.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -10.5 @ $1.87 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 51.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Minnesota Vikings 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 37.8% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 38.5 @ $1.93 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 12 · Predicted total: 37
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-minnesota-vikings-v-miami-dolphins

### Las Vegas Raiders v Kansas City Chiefs
Mon, 05 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · Allegiant Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 30.5% / Kansas City Chiefs 69.5%
- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.44 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 69.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 @ $1.87 (edge +0.6%) — model probability 54.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Kansas City Chiefs 1-13 @ $2.12 (edge -7.6%) — model probability 39.5% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 7 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-las-vegas-raiders-v-kansas-city-chiefs

### Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Chargers
Mon, 05 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · Lumen Field · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Seattle Seahawks 83.2% / Los Angeles Chargers 16.8%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.25 (edge +3.2%) — model probability 83.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -7.5 @ $2.02 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 56.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-13 @ $2.03 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 38.9% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 12 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-seattle-seahawks-v-los-angeles-chargers

### San Francisco 49ers v Denver Broncos
Mon, 05 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · Levi's Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: San Francisco 49ers 45.8% / Denver Broncos 54.2%
- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $2.27 (edge +10.1%) — model probability 54.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos +2.5 @ $2.00 (edge +10.3%) — model probability 60.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Denver Broncos 1-13 @ $2.75 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 35.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 57
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-san-francisco-49ers-v-denver-broncos

### Carolina Panthers v Detroit Lions
Mon, 05 Oct, 11:20 am AEDT · Bank of America Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Carolina Panthers 31.8% / Detroit Lions 68.2%
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.48 (edge +0.6%) — model probability 68.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -3.5 @ $1.86 (edge +0.5%) — model probability 54.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Detroit Lions 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.7%) — model probability 39.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 7 · Predicted total: 55
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-carolina-panthers-v-detroit-lions

### New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons
Tue, 06 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT · Caesars Superdome · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: New Orleans Saints 45.1% / Atlanta Falcons 54.9%
- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $2.23 (edge +10.0%) — model probability 54.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +2.5 @ $1.99 (edge +10.9%) — model probability 61.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Atlanta Falcons 1-13 @ $2.70 (edge -1.2%) — model probability 35.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.83 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 6 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r4-new-orleans-saints-v-atlanta-falcons

## Model performance (2026)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/round/3 (markdown: /nfl/round/3.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/round/5 (markdown: /nfl/round/5.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-10-06 03:31 UTC (latest tip update)