# NFL Week 3 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 3 of the 2026 season — 16 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 3 at a glance
- 16 matches · 2W–2L on 4 settled picks (50% strike rate) · 60 picks pending · best value +17.9% edge

## Week 3 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers v Atlanta Falcons | Green Bay Packers @ $1.39 | Green Bay Packers 68% | LOST |
| Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots | Jacksonville Jaguars @ $1.63 | Jacksonville Jaguars 59% | — |
| New York Giants v Tennessee Titans | New York Giants @ $1.65 | New York Giants 58% | — |
| Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs @ $1.13 | Kansas City Chiefs 79% | — |
| Washington Commanders v Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks @ $1.29 | Seattle Seahawks 61% | — |
| Buffalo Bills v Los Angeles Chargers | Buffalo Bills @ $1.24 | Buffalo Bills 67% | — |
| Cleveland Browns v Carolina Panthers | Cleveland Browns @ $2.26 | Cleveland Browns 51% | — |
| Detroit Lions v New York Jets | Detroit Lions @ $1.30 | Detroit Lions 74% | — |
| Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans | Houston Texans @ $1.64 | Houston Texans 55% | — |
| Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers @ $2.53 | Pittsburgh Steelers 52% | — |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Minnesota Vikings | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $2.05 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51% | — |
| San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco 49ers @ $1.20 | San Francisco 49ers 81% | — |
| Dallas Cowboys v Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens @ $1.56 | Baltimore Ravens 68% | — |
| New Orleans Saints v Las Vegas Raiders | New Orleans Saints @ $1.58 | New Orleans Saints 53% | — |
| Denver Broncos v Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams @ $1.70 | Los Angeles Rams 55% | — |
| Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles | Chicago Bears @ $2.92 | Chicago Bears 52% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Green Bay Packers v Atlanta Falcons
Fri, 25 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · Lambeau Field · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Green Bay Packers 67.6% / Atlanta Falcons 32.4%
- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.39 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 67.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.5%) — model probability 52.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Green Bay Packers 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -7.5%) — model probability 39.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 3 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-green-bay-packers-v-atlanta-falcons

### Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · EverBank Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 59.2% / New England Patriots 40.8%
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.63 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 59.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 @ $1.82 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 53.1%
- **Margin Band:** Jacksonville Jaguars 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 38.3%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-jacksonville-jaguars-v-new-england-patriots

### New York Giants v Tennessee Titans
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · MetLife Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: New York Giants 58.3% / Tennessee Titans 41.7%
- **Head to Head:** New York Giants to win @ $1.65 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 58.3%
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants -2.5 @ $1.82 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 51.4%
- **Margin Band:** New York Giants 1-13 @ $2.30 (edge -5.6%) — model probability 37.8%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.95 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: New York Giants by 4 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-new-york-giants-v-tennessee-titans

### Miami Dolphins v Kansas City Chiefs
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Hard Rock Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Miami Dolphins 21.3% / Kansas City Chiefs 78.7%
- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.13 (edge -9.8%) — model probability 78.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +11.5 @ $1.88 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 52.7%
- **Margin Band:** Kansas City Chiefs 14+ @ $2.07 (edge -7.3%) — model probability 41.0%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 10 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-miami-dolphins-v-kansas-city-chiefs

### Washington Commanders v Seattle Seahawks
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Northwest Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Washington Commanders 38.8% / Seattle Seahawks 61.2%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.29 (edge -16.3%) — model probability 61.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +7.5 @ $1.80 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 57.4%
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 39.3%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 2 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-washington-commanders-v-seattle-seahawks

### Buffalo Bills v Los Angeles Chargers
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Highmark Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Buffalo Bills 67.5% / Los Angeles Chargers 32.5%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.24 (edge -13.2%) — model probability 67.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 @ $1.83 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 52.3%
- **Margin Band:** Buffalo Bills 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 39.7%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.94 (edge -1.5%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 6 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-buffalo-bills-v-los-angeles-chargers

### Cleveland Browns v Carolina Panthers
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Huntington Bank Field · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Cleveland Browns 51.3% / Carolina Panthers 48.7%
- **Head to Head:** Cleveland Browns to win @ $2.26 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 51.3%
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +2.5 @ $2.00 (edge +6.7%) — model probability 56.7%
- **Margin Band:** Cleveland Browns 1-13 @ $2.70 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 33.8%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Cleveland Browns by 2 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-cleveland-browns-v-carolina-panthers

### Detroit Lions v New York Jets
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Ford Field · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Detroit Lions 74.2% / New York Jets 25.8%
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.30 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 74.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -6.5 @ $1.83 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 50.2%
- **Margin Band:** Detroit Lions 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 39.7%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 7 · Predicted total: 56
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-detroit-lions-v-new-york-jets

### Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Lucas Oil Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Indianapolis Colts 44.7% / Houston Texans 55.3%
- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.64 (edge -5.7%) — model probability 55.3%
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ $2.00 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 52.6%
- **Margin Band:** Houston Texans 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -8.9%) — model probability 36.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 1 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-indianapolis-colts-v-houston-texans

### Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals
Mon, 28 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Acrisure Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 52.5% / Cincinnati Bengals 47.5%
- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $2.53 (edge +12.9%) — model probability 52.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 @ $1.87 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 59.0%
- **Margin Band:** Pittsburgh Steelers 1-13 @ $2.95 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 33.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-pittsburgh-steelers-v-cincinnati-bengals

### Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Minnesota Vikings
Mon, 28 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · Raymond James Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50.6% / Minnesota Vikings 49.4%
- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $2.05 (edge +1.8%) — model probability 50.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.7%) — model probability 55.3%
- **Margin Band:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-13 @ $2.55 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 34.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 · Predicted total: 38
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-tampa-bay-buccaneers-v-minnesota-vikings

### San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals
Mon, 28 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · Levi's Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: San Francisco 49ers 81.3% / Arizona Cardinals 18.7%
- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.20 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 81.3%
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -8.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 53.9%
- **Margin Band:** San Francisco 49ers 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 38.8%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 11 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-san-francisco-49ers-v-arizona-cardinals

### Dallas Cowboys v Baltimore Ravens
Mon, 28 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Maracana Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Dallas Cowboys 31.8% / Baltimore Ravens 68.2%
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.56 (edge +4.1%) — model probability 68.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ $1.98 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 56.1%
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -6.0%) — model probability 39.4%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 8 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-dallas-cowboys-v-baltimore-ravens

### New Orleans Saints v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 28 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Caesars Superdome · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: New Orleans Saints 53.2% / Las Vegas Raiders 46.8%
- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.58 (edge -10.1%) — model probability 53.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 @ $1.79 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 53.3%
- **Margin Band:** New Orleans Saints 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -8.1%) — model probability 37.4%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.96 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: New Orleans Saints by 1 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-new-orleans-saints-v-las-vegas-raiders

### Denver Broncos v Los Angeles Rams
Mon, 28 Sept, 10:20 am AEST · Empower Field at Mile High · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Denver Broncos 44.8% / Los Angeles Rams 55.2%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.70 (edge -3.6%) — model probability 55.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -2.5 @ $1.88 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.6%
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.30 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 37.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.95 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 3 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-denver-broncos-v-los-angeles-rams

### Chicago Bears v Philadelphia Eagles
Tue, 29 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · Soldier Field · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Chicago Bears 52.1% / Philadelphia Eagles 47.9%
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $2.92 (edge +17.9%) — model probability 52.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +5.5 @ $1.86 (edge +5.2%) — model probability 59.0%
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $3.40 (edge +0.8%) — model probability 30.2%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 1 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r3-chicago-bears-v-philadelphia-eagles

## Model performance (2026)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/round/2 (markdown: /nfl/round/2.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-09-23 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)