# NFL Week 1 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 1 of the 2026 season — 16 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 1 at a glance
- 16 matches · 37W–27L on 64 settled picks (58% strike rate) · best value +13.0% edge

## Week 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots | Seattle Seahawks @ $1.56 | Seattle Seahawks 60% | WON |
| Los Angeles Rams v San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams @ $1.53 | Los Angeles Rams 62% | LOST |
| Jacksonville Jaguars v Cleveland Browns | Jacksonville Jaguars @ $1.26 | Jacksonville Jaguars 72% | WON |
| Cincinnati Bengals v Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cincinnati Bengals @ $1.51 | Cincinnati Bengals 60% | WON |
| Carolina Panthers v Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears @ $1.69 | Chicago Bears 71% | WON |
| Houston Texans v Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills @ $1.91 | Buffalo Bills 57% | WON |
| Indianapolis Colts v Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens @ $1.58 | Baltimore Ravens 76% | WON |
| Pittsburgh Steelers v Atlanta Falcons | Pittsburgh Steelers @ $1.58 | Pittsburgh Steelers 63% | WON |
| Detroit Lions v New Orleans Saints | Detroit Lions @ $1.31 | Detroit Lions 74% | WON |
| Tennessee Titans v New York Jets | Tennessee Titans @ $1.78 | Tennessee Titans 60% | LOST |
| Minnesota Vikings v Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings @ $1.88 | Minnesota Vikings 60% | WON |
| Los Angeles Chargers v Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Chargers @ $1.18 | Los Angeles Chargers 81% | LOST |
| Las Vegas Raiders v Miami Dolphins | Miami Dolphins @ $2.52 | Miami Dolphins 51% | LOST |
| Philadelphia Eagles v Washington Commanders | Philadelphia Eagles @ $1.44 | Philadelphia Eagles 61% | WON |
| New York Giants v Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys @ $1.66 | Dallas Cowboys 51% | LOST |
| Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs @ $1.70 | Kansas City Chiefs 56% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots
Thu, 10 Sept, 10:20 am AEST · Lumen Field · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Seattle Seahawks 60.1% / New England Patriots 39.9%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.56 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 60.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots +3.5 @ $1.87 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 50.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 38.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 50.7% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-seattle-seahawks-v-new-england-patriots

### Los Angeles Rams v San Francisco 49ers
Fri, 11 Sept, 10:35 am AEST · Melbourne Cricket Ground · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Rams 62.3% / San Francisco 49ers 37.7%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.53 (edge -3.1%) — model probability 62.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ $1.87 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 51.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Rams 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 38.5% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.94 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 52.8% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 5 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-los-angeles-rams-v-san-francisco-49ers

### Jacksonville Jaguars v Cleveland Browns
Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · EverBank Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 72.0% / Cleveland Browns 28.0%
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.26 (edge -7.4%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +7.5 @ $1.93 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 51.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Jacksonville Jaguars 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 39.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.90 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 52.1% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-jacksonville-jaguars-v-cleveland-browns

### Cincinnati Bengals v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Paycor Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 59.7% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40.3%
- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.51 (edge -6.5%) — model probability 59.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 @ $1.97 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cincinnati Bengals 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -8.3%) — model probability 38.2% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.89 (edge +4.8%) — model probability 57.7% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 3 · Predicted total: 59
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-cincinnati-bengals-v-tampa-bay-buccaneers

### Carolina Panthers v Chicago Bears
Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Bank of America Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Carolina Panthers 29.3% / Chicago Bears 70.7%
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.69 (edge +11.5%) — model probability 70.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears -2.5 @ $1.83 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 54.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 38.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.95 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 52.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 11 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-carolina-panthers-v-chicago-bears

### Houston Texans v Buffalo Bills
Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Reliant Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Houston Texans 42.8% / Buffalo Bills 57.2%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.91 (edge +4.9%) — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills -1.5 @ $2.00 (edge +0.9%) — model probability 50.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Buffalo Bills 1-13 @ $2.40 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 36.6% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.90 (edge -1.2%) — model probability 51.4% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 3 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-houston-texans-v-buffalo-bills

### Indianapolis Colts v Baltimore Ravens
Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Lucas Oil Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Indianapolis Colts 23.7% / Baltimore Ravens 76.3%
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.58 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 76.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ $1.95 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 54.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Baltimore Ravens 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 39.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 11 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-indianapolis-colts-v-baltimore-ravens

### Pittsburgh Steelers v Atlanta Falcons
Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Acrisure Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 62.5% / Atlanta Falcons 37.5%
- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $1.58 (edge -0.7%) — model probability 62.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ $1.95 (edge -0.2%) — model probability 51.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Pittsburgh Steelers 1-13 @ $2.20 (edge -6.9%) — model probability 38.6% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.85 (edge -0.1%) — model probability 54.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-pittsburgh-steelers-v-atlanta-falcons

### Detroit Lions v New Orleans Saints
Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Ford Field · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Detroit Lions 73.8% / New Orleans Saints 26.2%
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.31 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 73.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -6.5 @ $1.81 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 50.7% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Detroit Lions 1-13 @ $2.15 (edge -6.8%) — model probability 39.7% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.85 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 57.5% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 58
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-detroit-lions-v-new-orleans-saints

### Tennessee Titans v New York Jets
Mon, 14 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Nissan Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Tennessee Titans 59.8% / New York Jets 40.2%
- **Head to Head:** Tennessee Titans to win @ $1.78 (edge +3.7%) — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans -1.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 50.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Tennessee Titans 1-13 @ $2.40 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 36.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 39.5 @ $1.90 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 52.3% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Tennessee Titans by 3 · Predicted total: 37
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-tennessee-titans-v-new-york-jets

### Minnesota Vikings v Green Bay Packers
Mon, 14 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · U.S. Bank Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Minnesota Vikings 60.4% / Green Bay Packers 39.6%
- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.88 (edge +7.3%) — model probability 60.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ $1.94 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Minnesota Vikings 1-13 @ $2.40 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 37.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.90 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 52.9% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 6 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-minnesota-vikings-v-green-bay-packers

### Los Angeles Chargers v Arizona Cardinals
Mon, 14 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · SoFi Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 81.1% / Arizona Cardinals 18.9%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.18 (edge -3.7%) — model probability 81.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 @ $1.98 (edge +0.5%) — model probability 51.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Los Angeles Chargers 14+ @ $2.20 (edge -4.0%) — model probability 41.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.83 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 51.6% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 12 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-los-angeles-chargers-v-arizona-cardinals

### Las Vegas Raiders v Miami Dolphins
Mon, 14 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Allegiant Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 49.1% / Miami Dolphins 50.9%
- **Head to Head:** Miami Dolphins to win @ $2.52 (edge +11.3%) — model probability 50.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.84 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 54.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Miami Dolphins 1-13 @ $2.90 (edge -3.6%) — model probability 30.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 39.5 @ $1.99 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 52.6% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 3 · Predicted total: 37
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-las-vegas-raiders-v-miami-dolphins

### Philadelphia Eagles v Washington Commanders
Mon, 14 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Lincoln Financial Field · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 61.1% / Washington Commanders 38.9%
- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.44 (edge -8.3%) — model probability 61.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +4.5 @ $1.93 (edge +0.2%) — model probability 52.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Philadelphia Eagles 1-13 @ $2.12 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 38.6% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.89 (edge +1.5%) — model probability 54.4% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 1 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-philadelphia-eagles-v-washington-commanders

### New York Giants v Dallas Cowboys
Mon, 14 Sept, 10:20 am AEST · MetLife Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: New York Giants 48.7% / Dallas Cowboys 51.3%
- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.66 (edge -9.0%) — model probability 51.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants +2.5 @ $2.00 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dallas Cowboys 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -7.4%) — model probability 37.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 50.6% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 0 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-new-york-giants-v-dallas-cowboys

### Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos
Tue, 15 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 56.3% / Denver Broncos 43.7%
- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.70 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 56.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ $1.84 (edge -4.2%) — model probability 50.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Kansas City Chiefs 1-13 @ $2.30 (edge -6.0%) — model probability 37.5% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.84 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 3 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2026-r1-kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos

## Model performance (2026)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/round/2 (markdown: /nfl/round/2.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-09-06 08:57 UTC (latest tip update)