# Seattle Seahawks v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Seattle Seahawks v Arizona Cardinals?

Alphr's NFL model makes Seattle Seahawks a clear 69% favourite over Arizona Cardinals in Week 9. Predicted result: Seattle Seahawks by 4 in a high-scoring game (42 total, over the 39.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Seattle Seahawks lead on Team ELO, Home Field and Running Game.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing Seattle Seahawks and 0 taking Arizona Cardinals.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 3 of 8 Seattle Seahawks games and 4 of 8 Arizona Cardinals games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### Seattle Seahawks v Arizona Cardinals
Mon, 09 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT · Lumen Field · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.22 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 68.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +8.5 @ $1.86 (edge +2.5%) — model probability 56.3%
- **Margin Band:** Seattle Seahawks 1-10 @ $2.65 (edge -6.7%) — model probability 31.0%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.87 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 4 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview

**Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

Seattle Seahawks meet Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 9 at Lumen Field. The model makes Seattle Seahawks the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model likes Seattle Seahawks here, 69% to beat Arizona Cardinals, and the biggest reason is written in the ratings: a 241-point ELO gap, 1630 to 1389. That's not a line-ball number, that's a gulf.

Seattle Seahawks lead most of the positional battles too. Pass rush is the standout, 60 to 47, and the secondary holds a smaller edge at 55 to 52. Quarterback favours Drew Lock over Gardner Minshew II, 54 to 50. The Cardinals do have the better backfield, 52 to 48, and the better special teams by some margin, 76 to 70, which is literally the factor list: Team ELO, Home Field, Running Game, Pass Defence, Pass Rush and Quarterback for Seattle, special teams and "everything else" for Arizona. Make of that what you will.

History's not kind to the visitors either. Seattle Seahawks have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, and the most recent one wasn't close: 31-7 at State Farm Stadium back in Week 2. Divisional rivals, sure, but this has been a one-way street for a while.

Form is the one area that's genuinely even. Both sides have won two of their last five. Seattle Seahawks sit 4-4 overall and 3-2 at home, scoring 23.1 and conceding 19.9 a game. Arizona Cardinals are 3-5, 3-2 on the road, but they're leaking 29.8 points a game against 21.9 scored, a defence that's been the problem all year. Seattle's last five read WLLWL, Arizona's LLWLW, so there's a bit of mirror-image noise in there.

Rest favours Arizona slightly, seven days against Seattle's six, for whatever that's worth on a Monday night at Lumen Field.

The model's margin sits at Seattle Seahawks by 3.9, with a combined total around 42. That's a lot of confidence in the winner and not much in the margin, which tells you something: the model backs the outcome more than it backs a blowout. The market's spread is Seattle Seahawks -8.5 and the total's 39.5, so the model's actually a bit shorter on the margin than the line suggests, and a touch higher on the total.

On price, Seattle Seahawks sit at $1.22 in the market against Arizona Cardinals at $4.30, and the model flags a -13.4% edge there, meaning it thinks the price is a bit skinny for what it's actually worth. For the other markets it's an opinion, not a priced edge: Arizona Cardinals plus the 8.5 at $1.86, and the total going over 39.5 at $1.87.

In the try-scorer markets, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the shortest anytime touchdown price at $1.91 with the model giving him 52%, Zach Charbonnet is next at $2.50 (44%), and Trey McBride leads the Arizona options at $3.15 (34%). First touchdown is longer odds across the board, Smith-Njigba the pick there too at $5.80 with an 13% chance.

For Arizona Cardinals to cause trouble, that leaky defence needs to find something fast, and the special teams edge needs to actually show up on the scoreboard. Possible, not likely. The model's happy to back Seattle Seahawks to win this one, just not to turn it into a rout.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 11 · Arizona Cardinals 1 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 31-7 (2026) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2026 so far | 4-4 · 3-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 23.1 for · 19.9 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2026 so far | 3-5 · 3-2 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 21.9 for · 29.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drew Lock · Gardner Minshew II |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.22 · Arizona Cardinals $4.30 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -8.5 · total 39.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 21.8pts | Avg Conceded | 31.4pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | -9.0pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W4 W · W5 L · W6 L · W7 W · W8 L | 22.0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W4 L · W5 L · W6 W · W7 L · W8 W | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W2 | Arizona Cardinals | 7 – 31 | Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks 83% ✓ |
| 2025 | W10 | Seattle Seahawks | 44 – 22 | Arizona Cardinals | not priced |
| 2025 | W4 | Arizona Cardinals | 20 – 23 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |
| 2024 | W14 | Arizona Cardinals | 18 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks | not priced |
| 2024 | W12 | Seattle Seahawks | 16 – 6 | Arizona Cardinals | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 9 in 8g | 10/10g (1·0·1·3·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 7/7g | 20/32g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 52% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $5.80 AI 13% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 4/5g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $11.50 AI 34% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $31.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/18g | 2/19g | 24% | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/23g | 26% | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/9g | 6% | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/12g | 12% | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/11g | 28% | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 35% | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 0% | — |
| – | Drew Lock | QB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 16% | — |
| – | Jadarian Price | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | Nick Kallerup | TE | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 12/25g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 44% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 11% Market priced |

**Arizona Cardinals** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 34% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 29% Market priced |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 33% Market priced |
| – | Teagan Quitoriano | TE | 2 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Evan Hull | RB | no games | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Gardner Minshew II | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Harrison Wallace III | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Reggie Virgil | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 3% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34%
- ⚡ Michael Wilson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33%
- ⚡ Tyler Allgeier — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 29%
- Rest of the Cardinals: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 52%
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 44%
- ⚡ Emanuel Wilson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 34%
- Rest of the Seahawks: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Arizona Cardinals** (ARI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Higgins · Rec yds | U 13.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 12.4) | market |
| Elijah Higgins · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.65 | 52% (expects 1.7) | market |
| Michael Wilson · Rec yds | O 48.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 70.3) | market |
| Michael Wilson · Rec | O 4.5 | $1.97 | 59% (expects 5.7) | market |
| Trey McBride · Rec | O 7.5 | $2.12 | 51% (expects 7.7) | market |
| Trey McBride · Rec yds | O 59.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 65.5) | market |

**Seattle Seahawks** (SEA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner · Rec yds | U 24.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 18.5) | market |
| AJ Barner · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.07 | 53% (expects 2.1) | market |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec | O 6.5 | $1.65 | 52% (expects 6.7) | market |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Rec yds | O 92.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 93.3) | market |
| Zach Charbonnet · Rec yds | U 8.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 5.2) | market |
| Zach Charbonnet · Rush yds | U 40.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 32.3) | market |
| Zach Charbonnet · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.09 | 52% (expects 1.2) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1630 · Arizona Cardinals 1389 · ELO difference: 241 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 54 | 50 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 61 | Even |
| Backfield | 48 | 52 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 47 | Seattle Seahawks +13 |
| Secondary | 55 | 52 | Even |
| Special Teams | 70 | 76 | Arizona Cardinals +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 40.5% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Home Field | 12.4% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 3 | Running Game | 6.8% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Special Teams | 6.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5 | Pass Defence | 4.5% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Pass Rush | 4.2% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 7 | Quarterback | 4.1% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 8 | Everything else | 10.8% | Arizona Cardinals |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Seattle Seahawks win, around 23–19 (total ~42 — over the 39.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 39.5 line (model projects 42).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)