# San Francisco 49ers v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win San Francisco 49ers v Las Vegas Raiders?

Alphr's NFL model makes San Francisco 49ers a clear 81% favourite over Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9. Predicted result: San Francisco 49ers by 12 in a high-scoring game (54 total, over the 52.5 line). **Confidence: High.** San Francisco 49ers lead on Team ELO, Home Field and Running Game.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing San Francisco 49ers and 0 taking Las Vegas Raiders.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 3 of 7 San Francisco 49ers games and 5 of 8 Las Vegas Raiders games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### San Francisco 49ers v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 09 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT · Levi's Stadium · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.18 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 81.0%
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 53.9%
- **Margin Band:** San Francisco 49ers 11+ @ $1.95 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 50.8%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 52.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 12 · Predicted total: 54

### Match Preview

**San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

San Francisco 49ers meet Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 9 at Levi's Stadium. The model makes San Francisco 49ers the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model has this at 81% for San Francisco 49ers, and it's not close to a photo finish. The biggest single driver is the ELO gap: 49ers sit on 1623, Raiders on 1411, a 213-point split that's about as clean a signal as this model gives.

Here's the twist worth knowing before you nod along: the Raiders actually rate higher in three individual positions, Quarterback 71 to 62, Receiving Corps 73 to 63, and Special Teams 74 to 52. The model's factor list has those three in the Raiders column too. But it's still backing San Francisco, leaning instead on Team ELO, Home Field, Running Game, Explosive Plays and "everything else", with the Backfield edge (59 to 52) and a slim Secondary edge (55 to 51) doing real work underneath that.

History backs the lean. San Francisco have won 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two, and the most recent one wasn't even close on the scoreboard, a 37-34 shootout at Allegiant Stadium back in Week 17 of 2022.

Form tells the same story from two different directions. San Francisco are 6-1 this season, 4-0 at home, averaging 28.1 points for and 19.9 against, and they've won four of their last five. Las Vegas are 4-4, 3-1 on the road for what it's worth, but conceding 28.8 a game against 27.6 scored, and their last five reads LLLLW. A +3.2 average margin against an 8.6-point average loss is not a small gap.

San Francisco also get the rest. Fourteen days off against seven for the Raiders, Brock Purdy up against Kirk Cousins, Kyle Shanahan against Klint Kubliak. Nothing in the data says rest wins football games on its own, but it's one more thing stacked on the home side's pile.

Shape of the game, per the model: San Francisco by 12.4, with the total sitting around 54. That's roughly in line with the market's own numbers, a -9.5 spread and a 52.5 total, so nobody's miles apart on how this should play out.

On price, San Francisco sit at $1.18 and Las Vegas out at $4.90, with San Francisco the market's favourite and the model's pick both. The model's own edge there comes in at -3.8%, so it's not calling this a steal, just calling it correctly. On the margin and total, San Francisco -9.5 at $1.90 and the Over 52.5 at $1.89 are the model's picks with no edge claimed either way, it simply doesn't price those markets.

On the props, Christian McCaffrey anytime at $1.35 is the standout, the model gives him 74%, and he's the first scorer pick too at $4.10 with 14%. George Kittle anytime ($1.97, 47%) and Deebo Samuel anytime ($1.93, 31%) round out the San Francisco end, while Ashton Jeanty anytime for the Raiders sits at $2.65 with the model giving him 45%.

For the Raiders to flip this, the quarterback and receiving matchups need to show up loud, and the ground game and home patterns need to go quiet. Possible, not what the numbers are leaning towards. The model's read is a comfortable San Francisco night, built on class and a rested home side, not a one-off.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | San Francisco 49ers 5 · Las Vegas Raiders 2 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 37-34 (2022) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2026 so far | 6-1 · 4-0 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 28.1 for · 19.9 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2026 so far | 4-4 · 3-1 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 27.6 for · 28.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Klint Kubliak |
| Rest | San Francisco 49ers 14d · Las Vegas Raiders 7d |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $1.18 · Las Vegas Raiders $4.90 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -9.5 · total 52.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 26.6pts |
| 23.8pts | Avg Conceded | 35.2pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.6pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W3 W · W4 W · W5 W · W6 W · W7 L | 27.0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W7 L · W8 W | 26.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W17 | Las Vegas Raiders | 34 – 37 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2018 | W9 | San Francisco 49ers | 34 – 3 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2014 | W14 | Las Vegas Raiders | 24 – 13 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2010 | W6 | San Francisco 49ers | 17 – 9 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2006 | W5 | San Francisco 49ers | 34 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (0·2·0·0·2·1·1·1·2·1) | 3/2g | 35/33g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.35 AI 74% AI backs — priced short; 🎯 First TD $4.10 AI 14% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 32/70g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.97 AI 47% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Deebo Samuel | WR | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 23/52g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.93 AI 31% Market priced |
| – | Mike Evans | WR | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 4/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.93 AI 39% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 11/68g | 20% | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 3/7g | 22% | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/34g | 16% | — |
| – | Kaelon Black | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — |
| – | Brayden Willis | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 1/4g | 26% | — |
| – | Jordan James | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | Jordan Watkins | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 4% | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 5 in 6g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 38% Market priced |
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 45% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 6% | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Mike Washington Jr. | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Malik Benson | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 45%
- ⚡ Brock Bowers — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 38%
- Rest of the Raiders: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**San Francisco 49ers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 74%
- ⚡ George Kittle 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 47%
- ⚡ Mike Evans 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39%
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31%
- Rest of the 49ers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (LV)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.76 | 56% (expects 3.8) | market |
| Ashton Jeanty · Rush yds | U 27.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 27.1) | market |
| Ashton Jeanty · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 29.4) | market |
| Brock Bowers · Rec yds | U 76.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 58.8) | market |
| Brock Bowers · Rec | U 6.5 | $1.88 | 59% (expects 5.3) | market |
| Kirk Cousins · Rush yds | U 1.5 | $1.84 | no read (expects 0.0) | market |
| Kirk Cousins · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.94 | 53% (expects 1.3) | market |
| Kirk Cousins · Pass yds | U 250.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 246.3) | market |
| Mike Washington Jr. · Rush yds | O 40.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 41.5) | market |
| Tre Tucker · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.80 | 57% (expects 2.6) | market |
| Tre Tucker · Rec yds | U 44.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 33.7) | market |

**San Francisco 49ers** (SF)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy · Pass yds | U 245.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 239.1) | market |
| Brock Purdy · Rush yds | O 14.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 15.7) | market |
| Brock Purdy · Pass TDs | U 2.5 | $1.58 | 64% (expects 1.6) | market |
| Christian McCaffrey · Rush yds | O 60.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 63.7) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1623 · Las Vegas Raiders 1411 · ELO difference: 213 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 62 | 71 | Las Vegas Raiders +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 73 | Las Vegas Raiders +10 |
| Backfield | 59 | 52 | San Francisco 49ers +7 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 51 | Even |
| Special Teams | 52 | 74 | Las Vegas Raiders +22 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 30.8% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Home Field | 13.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Special Teams | 12.7% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Receiving Corps | 7.7% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 5 | Quarterback | 7.7% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 6 | Running Game | 5.9% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 7 | Explosive Plays | 3.7% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 8 | Everything else | 8.1% | San Francisco 49ers |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 54 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring San Francisco 49ers win, around 33–21 (total ~54 — over the 52.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 52.5 line (model projects 54).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)