# Philadelphia Eagles v New York Giants — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Philadelphia Eagles v New York Giants?

Alphr's NFL model makes New York Giants a clear 72% favourite over Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9. Predicted result: New York Giants by 12 in a high-scoring game (40 total, over the 38.5 line). **Confidence: High.** New York Giants lead on Special Teams, Drive Efficiency and Pass Defence. The edge is on the New York Giants line at +11.1%.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 0 backing New York Giants and 1 taking Philadelphia Eagles.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 7 of 8 Philadelphia Eagles games and 2 of 6 New York Giants games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### Philadelphia Eagles v New York Giants
Mon, 09 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · Lincoln Financial Field · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** New York Giants to win @ $1.58 (edge +9.2%) — model probability 72.5%
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants -2.5 @ $1.79 (edge +6.6%) — model probability 62.4%
- **Margin Band:** New York Giants 11+ @ $3.80 (edge +11.1%) — model probability 37.4%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 38.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: New York Giants by 12 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview

**Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

Philadelphia Eagles meet New York Giants in NFL Week 9 at Lincoln Financial Field. The model makes New York Giants the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model is firm on New York Giants here: 72% to see off Philadelphia Eagles. That call sits against the numbers on home field, running game and quarterback, which all favour Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants lead on Special Teams, Drive Efficiency, Pass Defence, Recent Form and everything else, and the model weights those edges harder.

The ratings back the lean. New York Giants sit 31 points clear on ELO, 1455 to 1424. The positional picture is split: Philadelphia Eagles rate 65 to 56 in the Secondary and 52 to 47 in the Pass Rush, while New York Giants hold 68 to 57 in the Receiving Corps and 57 to 50 in Special Teams. Different strengths, different jobs, and the model thinks the Giants' side of the ledger matters more this week.

History leans the other way, for what it's worth. Philadelphia Eagles hold the head-to-head 8-4 across the last 12 meetings, and the last one was not close: Eagles 38-20 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 8 last year. Same ground, same opponent. The model's not blind to that record, it's just weighing current form heavier.

And current form is where this gets ugly for Philadelphia Eagles. They're 2-6 on the season, 1-3 at home, scoring 17.1 and conceding 25.3 a game, and they've lost five straight. New York Giants are 4-2-1, 1-2 on the road, scoring 23.3 and conceding 23.0, running WWTLW through their last five. Over that same stretch the Giants are averaging 25.8 points scored to 22.6 conceded, a plus-3.2 margin. Philadelphia Eagles are at minus-10.2.

Joe Milton III starts under Nick Sirianni, J.J. McCarthy under John Harbaugh, and the schedule has not been kind to the home side either: Philadelphia Eagles are working on 7 days' rest, New York Giants on 14. It's a Monday kickoff, and it's a divisional game, which tends to count for something even when the form lines do not.

Put it together and the model has New York Giants winning by 11.8, with the two teams combining for around 40 points. The market has the Giants at $1.58 and a -2.5 line, with Philadelphia Eagles out at $2.39, and the model reckons that Giants price is worth more than the market's giving it, an edge of 9.2%. It also likes the Giants to cover -2.5 at $1.79 and the game to go over 38.5 at $1.85, though it does not price either of those markets so no edge is claimed on them.

In the tries market the model fancies Cam Skattebo anytime at $2.25 (41% chance) and Saquon Barkley anytime at $2.18 (37%), with Malik Nabers ($3.00, 29%), Dallas Goedert ($3.90, 25%), Devin Singletary ($2.25, 23%) and Isaiah Likely ($3.35, 23%) all in the mix. For first scorer, Barkley heads the list at $7.00 (11%), ahead of Nabers at $9.50 (9%).

For Philadelphia Eagles to turn this over, the home field edge and whatever the running game can produce behind Milton need to do a lot of heavy lifting against a five-game losing run and a defence shipping over 25 a game. It's not impossible, divisional games have a habit of ignoring the maths. But on the numbers in front of it, the model's backing New York Giants, and backing them to win by more than a field goal.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Philadelphia Eagles 8 · New York Giants 4 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 38-20 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2026 so far | 2-6 · 1-3 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 17.1 for · 25.3 against |
| New York Giants 2026 so far | 4-2-1 · 1-2 away |
| New York Giants scoring | 23.3 for · 23.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Milton III · J.J. McCarthy |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · John Harbaugh |
| Rest | Philadelphia Eagles 7d · New York Giants 14d |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $2.39 · New York Giants $1.58 |
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 · total 38.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.4pts | Avg Score | 25.8pts |
| 26.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.6pts |
| -10.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W7 L · W8 L | 16.4 |
| New York Giants | W3 W · W4 W · W5 D · W6 L · W7 W | 25.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 38 – 20 | New York Giants |
| 2025 | W6 | New York Giants | 34 – 17 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | W18 | Philadelphia Eagles | 20 – 13 | New York Giants |
| 2024 | W7 | New York Giants | 3 – 28 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2023 | W18 | New York Giants | 27 – 10 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 24% | — |
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 2 in 6g | 8/10g (2·1·1·2·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 21/61g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 25% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/3g | 18/26g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.18 AI 37% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 11% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Makai Lemon | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 13% | — |
| – | Eli Stowers | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Elijah Moore | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 8% | — |
| – | Grant Calcaterra | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 2/16g | 7% | — |
| – | Jaydon Blue | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — |
| – | Joe Milton III | QB | no games | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — |

**New York Giants** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 23% Market priced |
| – | Cam Skattebo | RB | 2 in 6g | 7/10g (0·3·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/2g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 41% Market priced |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 23% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Malik Nabers | WR | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 29% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Malachi Fields | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 10% | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — |
| – | Patrick Ricard | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — |
| – | Thomas Fidone II | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Giants** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Cam Skattebo — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 41%
- ⚡ Malik Nabers 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29%
- ⚡ Devin Singletary 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 23%
- ⚡ Isaiah Likely — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 23%
- Rest of the Giants: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

**Philadelphia Eagles** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 37%
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25%
- Rest of the Eagles: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**New York Giants** (NYG)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney · Rec yds | O 12.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 13.5) | market |
| Darnell Mooney · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.49 | 54% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Isaiah Likely · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 33.2) | market |
| Isaiah Likely · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.88 | 60% (expects 3.3) | market |
| J.J. McCarthy · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.39 | 58% (expects 1.0) | market |
| J.J. McCarthy · Pass yds | U 214.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 183.8) | market |
| Malachi Fields · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.68 | 56% (expects 1.7) | market |
| Malachi Fields · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 26.6) | market |
| Malik Nabers · Rec yds | U 73.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 73.4) | market |
| Malik Nabers · Rec | O 5.5 | $1.83 | 50% (expects 5.5) | market |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (PHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley · Rush yds | O 60.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 63.1) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1424 · New York Giants 1455 · ELO difference: 31 in favour of New York Giants

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 45 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 68 | New York Giants +11 |
| Backfield | 50 | 55 | New York Giants +5 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 47 | Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
| Secondary | 65 | 56 | Philadelphia Eagles +9 |
| Special Teams | 50 | 57 | New York Giants +7 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home Field | 14.5% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Special Teams | 11.3% | New York Giants |
| 3 | Running Game | 11.2% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | Drive Efficiency | 9.6% | New York Giants |
| 5 | Pass Defence | 9.5% | New York Giants |
| 6 | Quarterback | 8.9% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 7 | Recent Form | 8.1% | New York Giants |
| 8 | Everything else | 20.1% | New York Giants |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — New York Giants predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring New York Giants win, around 26–14 (total ~40 — over the 38.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 38.5 line (model projects 40).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)