# New Orleans Saints v Cleveland Browns — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win New Orleans Saints v Cleveland Browns?

Alphr's NFL model rates New Orleans Saints a narrow 56% favourite over Cleveland Browns in Week 9, effectively a coin flip. Predicted result: New Orleans Saints by 2 in a low-scoring game (39 total, under the 43.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** New Orleans Saints lead on Home Field, Running Game and Pass Defence.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing New Orleans Saints and 0 taking Cleveland Browns.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 4 of 7 New Orleans Saints games and 5 of 8 Cleveland Browns games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### New Orleans Saints v Cleveland Browns
Mon, 09 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · Caesars Superdome · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.60 (edge -6.1%) — model probability 56.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ $1.78 (edge -3.7%) — model probability 52.4%
- **Margin Band:** New Orleans Saints 1-10 @ $2.80 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 30.4%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.84 (edge -4.3%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: New Orleans Saints by 2 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview

**New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

New Orleans Saints meet Cleveland Browns in NFL Week 9 at Caesars Superdome. The model makes New Orleans Saints the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

New Orleans Saints get the nod at 56%, Cleveland Browns sit at 44%. That's not a landslide, and it shouldn't be, because the ratings actually point the other way: Browns are rated 41 points clear on ELO, 1441 to 1400. So the model's backing the home side against the bigger number, leaning on Home Field, the Running Game, Pass Defence and what it's filed under "Everything else".

The Browns' case is written into their own factor list: Team ELO, Passing Game, Special Teams and Recent Form. The positional numbers back some of that up. Saints have the clear quarterback edge, Tyler Shough rated 52 to Deshaun Watson's 36, and a slight nose in front in the Receiving Corps, 59 to 55. But Cleveland's ahead in the Backfield 53 vs 55, the Pass Rush 56 vs 62 and Special Teams 55 vs 56. Nothing huge, but it adds up.

History's dead even. Eight meetings, four wins each. Last time out, in 2024, Saints won 35-14 at the same ground, back when it was still called Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Form is the awkward bit for New Orleans. They're 2-5 this season and winless at home, 0-4, averaging 23.1 points for and leaking 27.7 against, with LLLWL their last five. Cleveland's 5-3, 2-3 on the road, scoring less at 17.4 but conceding far less too at 21.6, riding WLWWL. Average margins tell the same story: Saints at -7.6, Browns at -3.4. Three wins from five beats one from five, no matter how the model's weighted it.

New Orleans does get the rest edge, 14 days to Cleveland's 7. Kellen Moore's side has had the full break; Todd Monken's have turned it around on a short week. Make of that what you will.

The model's margin sits at New Orleans Saints by 1.7, with a combined total near 39. That's tighter than the market's spread of Saints -3.5, and well under the market's total of 43.5.

On price, Saints are the market favourite at $1.60 and the model's got an edge of -6.1% there, meaning it actually rates the price a touch short. Browns sit out at $2.36. For margin, the model likes Cleveland Browns (line 3.5) at $1.78, though it doesn't price that market itself, so call that a lean, not an edge. Same deal with the total: Under 43.5 at $1.84 is the pick, no edge claimed, just the model's read of a low-scoring one.

In the try markets, Chris Olave's the shortest anytime price at $2.70 with the model giving him 37%, Quinshon Judkins next at $2.15 (35%), then Alvin Kamara at $4.10 (33%), Denzel Boston at $3.30 (29%), Harold Fannin Jr. at $3.25 (28%) and KC Concepcion at $3.75 (26%). First scorer is longer odds across the board: Olave $10.00 (10%), Judkins $7.25 (9%), Kamara $18.00 (8%), Boston $13.00 (7%).

So the Saints get the call, but it's a lean built on home comfort and the running game, not on the bigger numbers. For Cleveland to get up, their Recent Form and that ELO gap just need to keep doing what they've been doing. Either way, 1.7 points and 39 total says don't expect it to be pretty.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | New Orleans Saints 4 · Cleveland Browns 4 |
| Last meeting | New Orleans Saints 35-14 (2024) |
| New Orleans Saints 2026 so far | 2-5 · 0-4 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 23.1 for · 27.7 against |
| Cleveland Browns 2026 so far | 5-3 · 2-3 away |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 17.4 for · 21.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyler Shough · Deshaun Watson |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Todd Monken |
| Rest | New Orleans Saints 14d · Cleveland Browns 7d |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $1.60 · Cleveland Browns $2.36 |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.5 · total 43.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 17.0pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 W · W7 L | 21.6 |
| Cleveland Browns | W4 W · W5 L · W6 W · W7 W · W8 L | 17.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New Orleans Saints lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | W11 | New Orleans Saints | 35 – 14 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2022 | W16 | Cleveland Browns | 10 – 17 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2018 | W2 | New Orleans Saints | 21 – 18 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2014 | W2 | Cleveland Browns | 26 – 24 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2010 | W7 | New Orleans Saints | 17 – 30 | Cleveland Browns |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Caesars Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 33% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 30% | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/3g | 20% | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/2g | 16% | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | 2 in 7g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 37% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 10% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 22% | — |
| – | Tyler Shough | QB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 25% | — |
| – | Bryce Lance | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 14% | — |
| – | Barion Brown | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | CJ Donaldson | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| – | Oscar Delp | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | Treyton Welch | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |

**Cleveland Browns** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Denzel Boston | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 29% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 3 in 8g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 28% Market priced |
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 35% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 9% Market priced |
| – | Blake Whiteheart | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | KC Concepcion | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 26% Market priced |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Michael Burton | RB | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cleveland Browns** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 35%
- ⚡ Denzel Boston 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29%
- ⚡ Harold Fannin Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28%
- ⚡ KC Concepcion — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26%
- Rest of the Browns: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**New Orleans Saints** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Chris Olave 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 37%
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 33%
- Rest of the Saints: 10 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Cleveland Browns** (CLE)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Boston · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 42.1) | market |
| Denzel Boston · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.55 | 57% (expects 2.7) | market |
| Harold Fannin Jr. · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 39.6) | market |
| Harold Fannin Jr. · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.80 | 57% (expects 3.7) | market |
| KC Concepcion · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.81 | 58% (expects 3.5) | market |
| KC Concepcion · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 34.0) | market |
| Quinshon Judkins · Rush yds | U 66.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 41.7) | market |

**New Orleans Saints** (NO)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave · Rec | O 5.5 | $1.74 | 53% (expects 5.9) | market |
| Chris Olave · Rec yds | O 71.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 75.0) | market |
| Tyler Shough · Pass yds | U 226.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 222.5) | market |
| Tyler Shough · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.80 | 57% (expects 1.1) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Cleveland Browns hold the ELO advantage (1441 vs 1400), but the market favours New Orleans Saints (@1.60). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1400 · Cleveland Browns 1441 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of Cleveland Browns

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | Cleveland Browns | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 52 | 36 | New Orleans Saints +16 |
| Receiving Corps | 59 | 55 | Even |
| Backfield | 53 | 55 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 62 | Cleveland Browns +6 |
| Secondary | 55 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 55 | 56 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home Field | 15.9% | New Orleans Saints |
| 2 | Team ELO | 15.8% | Cleveland Browns |
| 3 | Running Game | 8.6% | New Orleans Saints |
| 4 | Passing Game | 8.1% | Cleveland Browns |
| 5 | Special Teams | 7.8% | Cleveland Browns |
| 6 | Pass Defence | 7.1% | New Orleans Saints |
| 7 | Recent Form | 6.9% | Cleveland Browns |
| 8 | Everything else | 11.7% | New Orleans Saints |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — New Orleans Saints predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring New Orleans Saints win, around 20–18 (total ~39 — under the 43.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 43.5 line (model projects 39).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)