# New England Patriots v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win New England Patriots v Green Bay Packers?

Alphr's NFL model makes New England Patriots a clear 66% favourite over Green Bay Packers in Week 9. Predicted result: New England Patriots by 6 in a low-scoring game (45 total, under the 46.5 line). **Confidence: High.** New England Patriots lead on Running Game, Passing Game and Home Field. The edge is on the New England Patriots line at +4.8%.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 0 backing New England Patriots and 1 taking Green Bay Packers.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 7 of 8 New England Patriots games and 6 of 8 Green Bay Packers games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### New England Patriots v Green Bay Packers
Mon, 09 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT · Gillette Stadium · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.57 (edge +1.9%) — model probability 65.6%
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots -3.5 @ $2.05 (edge +4.8%) — model probability 53.5%
- **Margin Band:** New England Patriots 1-10 @ $3.00 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 31.0%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.84 (edge -4.3%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview

**New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

New England Patriots meet Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 9 at Gillette Stadium. The model makes New England Patriots the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model likes New England Patriots at 66% here, and the number it keeps coming back to is the ratings gap: 1597 to 1539, New England Patriots up by 58 ELO points. That's the headline. Everything else is commentary.

The positional picture backs it up in most spots but not all. Drake Maye's side has the clear edge at quarterback, 84 to 65, and the better pass rush, 51 to 46, plus the backfield edge, 52 to 45. Green Bay Packers hit back in the secondary, 71 to 55, and in the receiving corps, 70 to 62, which is the one named factor running their way. So this isn't a clean sweep, it's New England Patriots winning the trenches and the quarterback spot, Green Bay Packers winning the skill positions on the other side of the ball.

History says this one's been even. Three wins apiece in the last six meetings, and the most recent was a Green Bay Packers job, 27-24 at Lambeau Field back in 2022. No form line to lean on there, just a genuine coin-flip rivalry that the model is now willing to break.

Form-wise, both are 5-3 and both arrive on WWWLW. New England Patriots are undefeated at home this year, 3-0, scoring 23.0 and conceding 20.3 a game. Green Bay Packers are 2-2 on the road, scoring 21.4 and conceding 20.5. Zoom into the last five and New England Patriots have been scoring more, 29.6 to 23, but leaking more too, 22.2 against to Green Bay Packers' tidy 14.6. Green Bay Packers' average margin in that stretch, 8.4, actually shades New England Patriots' 7.4. The form guide doesn't scream home favourite, which tells you the model is leaning hard on Home Field and the ELO gap to make its case.

Monday kickoff at Gillette Stadium, outdoors on fieldturf. Mike Vrabel's side gets seven days' rest, Matt LaFleur's mob get ten, so if anyone should have fresher legs it's the visitors. Jordan Love against Maye is the matchup worth watching given the gap at that position.

Put the shape together and the model has New England Patriots by 6.1, with a combined total near 45. The market's spread sits at -3.5 for New England Patriots and the total line is 46.5, so the model's pick leans a shade bigger on the margin and a shade lower on the scoring than the market has priced.

On the numbers: New England Patriots are $1.57 in the market, Green Bay Packers $2.41, and the model sees a 1.9% edge on the home side at that price. It also likes New England Patriots on the margin at $2.05 and the Under 46.5 at $1.84, though it doesn't price either market so there's no stated edge, just the model's pick.

For the scorer markets, Josh Jacobs is the lean for anytime, $1.90 and a 53% model chance, with Rhamondre Stevenson close behind at $1.88 and 47%. On the Green Bay Packers side, Christian Watson at $2.80 gets 40%, Matthew Golden at $2.80 sits at 36%, with Tucker Kraft ($3.50, 35%) and Hunter Henry ($3.10, 26%) further down the list. First-scorer is longer odds all round: Jacobs $7.50 at 12%, Stevenson $6.75 at 11%, Watson $13.00 at 10% and Golden $13.00 at 8%.

So the honest version is this: New England Patriots have the quarterback, the trenches and the home ground, Green Bay Packers have the skill-position talent and a near-identical form line. For the upset, Green Bay Packers probably need their receivers to win more snaps than the raw ratings suggest and New England Patriots' leaky defence from recent weeks to show up again. The model's happy to back New England Patriots by just over a converted touchdown, but it's not pretending this is a lock.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | New England Patriots 3 · Green Bay Packers 3 |
| Last meeting | Green Bay Packers 27-24 (2022) |
| New England Patriots 2026 so far | 5-3 · 3-0 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 23.0 for · 20.3 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2026 so far | 5-3 · 2-2 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 21.4 for · 20.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Matt LaFleur |
| Rest | New England Patriots 7d · Green Bay Packers 10d |
| Market | New England Patriots $1.57 · Green Bay Packers $2.41 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 · total 46.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 29.6pts | Avg Score | 23.0pts |
| 22.2pts | Avg Conceded | 14.6pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W4 W · W5 W · W6 W · W7 L · W8 W | 29.6 |
| Green Bay Packers | W4 W · W5 W · W6 W · W7 L · W8 W | 23.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W4 | Green Bay Packers | 27 – 24 | New England Patriots |
| 2018 | W9 | New England Patriots | 31 – 17 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2014 | W13 | Green Bay Packers | 26 – 21 | New England Patriots |
| 2010 | W15 | New England Patriots | 31 – 27 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2006 | W11 | Green Bay Packers | 0 – 35 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/27g | 26% | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/20g | 26% | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 18/37g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 47% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 11% Market priced |
| – | Eli Raridon | TE | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 29% | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 17/46g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 26% Market priced |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/13g | 20% | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 11% | — |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 9/14g | 19% | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| – | Corey Kiner | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| – | Tanner Arkin | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |

**Green Bay Packers** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 6 in 8g | 8/10g (1·1·2·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 40% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 10% Market priced |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 36% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 3 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.90 AI 53% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 12% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 35% Market priced |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Bo Melton | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Coleman Owen | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/18g | 24% | — |
| – | Josh Whyle | TE | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | Mark Redman | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 53%
- ⚡ Christian Watson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 40%
- ⚡ Matthew Golden 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36%
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35%
- Rest of the Packers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**New England Patriots** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 47%
- ⚡ Hunter Henry — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26%
- Rest of the Patriots: 14 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Green Bay Packers** (GB)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson · Rec | U 4.5 | $2.12 | 55% (expects 3.9) | market |
| Christian Watson · Rec yds | U 73.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 64.0) | market |
| Jordan Love · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.80 | 55% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Jordan Love · Pass yds | U 276.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 244.9) | market |
| Jordan Love · Rush yds | U 4.5 | $1.78 | no read (expects 4.5) | market |
| Josh Jacobs · Rec yds | U 21.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 15.7) | market |
| Josh Jacobs · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.96 | 59% (expects 2.4) | market |
| Josh Jacobs · Rush yds | O 43.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 47.9) | market |
| Matthew Golden · Rec yds | U 67.5 | $1.88 | 55% (expects 43.5) | market |
| Matthew Golden · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.68 | 70% (expects 2.9) | market |
| Tucker Kraft · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 3.6) | market |
| Tucker Kraft · Rec yds | U 45.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 44.3) | market |

**New England Patriots** (NE)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.87 | 55% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Drake Maye · Rush yds | O 25.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 28.0) | market |
| Drake Maye · Pass yds | O 230.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 236.2) | market |
| Rhamondre Stevenson · Rush yds | U 54.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 49.0) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1597 · Green Bay Packers 1539 · ELO difference: 58 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 84 | 65 | New England Patriots +19 |
| Receiving Corps | 62 | 70 | Green Bay Packers +8 |
| Backfield | 52 | 45 | New England Patriots +7 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 46 | New England Patriots +5 |
| Secondary | 55 | 71 | Green Bay Packers +16 |
| Special Teams | 54 | 48 | New England Patriots +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Running Game | 19.6% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Passing Game | 14.5% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Home Field | 12.1% | New England Patriots |
| 4 | Team ELO | 10.1% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Receiving Corps | 8.4% | Green Bay Packers |
| 6 | Pass Rush | 8.2% | New England Patriots |
| 7 | Pass Defence | 4.6% | New England Patriots |
| 8 | Everything else | 0.8% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring New England Patriots win, around 25–19 (total ~45 — under the 46.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 46.5 line (model projects 45).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)