# Minnesota Vikings v Buffalo Bills — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Minnesota Vikings v Buffalo Bills?

Alphr's NFL model rates Buffalo Bills a 59% favourite over Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. Predicted result: Buffalo Bills by 3 in a low-scoring game (34 total, under the 45.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Buffalo Bills lead on Quarterback, Passing Game and Recent Form.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing Buffalo Bills and 0 taking Minnesota Vikings.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 5 of 7 Minnesota Vikings games and 4 of 7 Buffalo Bills games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### Minnesota Vikings v Buffalo Bills
Tue, 10 Nov, 12:15 pm AEDT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.52 (edge -6.3%) — model probability 59.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ $1.84 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 51.3%
- **Margin Band:** Buffalo Bills 1-10 @ $2.70 (edge -6.5%) — model probability 30.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 3 · Predicted total: 34

### Match Preview

**Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

Minnesota Vikings meet Buffalo Bills in NFL Week 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The model makes Buffalo Bills the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

Buffalo Bills are the lean here, 59% to Minnesota Vikings' 41%. The big number behind it is the ELO gap: Bills sit at 1668, Vikings at 1616, 52 points clear. That's not nothing in this model's world.

The positional picture is messier than the headline suggests, and worth being straight about. Vikings actually rate higher in Receiving Corps (58 to 54), Pass Rush (59 to 54), Secondary (57 to 53) and Special Teams, where they're well clear at 81 to 65. But Bills own the two spots that move the needle most: Quarterback, 55 to 49, and Backfield, 71 to 56, a proper gap. Add Passing Game, Recent Form and Drive Efficiency to the ledger and that's six of eight factors running Buffalo's way, against just Home Field and Special Teams for Minnesota.

History's closer than the ratings suggest. Bills have won 4 of the last 7 meetings, Vikings 3. The most recent one, back in 2022, Week 10, went to the Vikings 33-30 at New Era Field. Different venue this time: Minnesota's hosting at U.S. Bank Stadium, under the dome on sportturf, with kickoff set for Tuesday local time.

Both sides arrive at 6-1 and both have won 4 of their last 5. But the shape of those wins is night and day. Vikings are grinding it out, 20.0 points for and 13.3 against across the season, 18.4 and 13.6 over the last five, with a tidy average margin of 4.8. Bills are doing it the loud way: 33.3 for and 25.9 against this year, 31.2 and 23.8 in the last five, average margin 7.4. Vikings' run reads WWWWL, Bills' is WLWWW, so Minnesota's the one coming off a wobble.

Kyler Murray runs it for Minnesota under Kevin O'Connell, Josh Allen for Buffalo under Sean McDermott. Both sides have had the same 8 days to get right, so no edge either way there.

The model's margin sits at Bills by 2.5, with a combined total near 34. That's well under the market's total line of 45.5, which is why Under 45.5 at $1.90 is the model's total pick, no edge claimed there since it doesn't price that market. It's also a fair bit tighter than the market's own spread of Bills -3.5, which tells you the model isn't as sold on a big Buffalo win as the line suggests.

Market has Bills at $1.52, Vikings out at $2.52, and Bills as clear market favourite. The model's edge on the Bills price comes in at -6.3%, so by its own numbers it reckons that price is a bit short, no free kick there. On margin, Vikings at the 3.5 line are $1.84, again the model's pick with no edge attached since it doesn't price that market either.

For the scoring markets, James Cook III is the standout, anytime touchdown at $1.97 with the model giving him 65%. Josh Allen's anytime price is $1.90 at 52%. Further down, Jordan Mason ($3.00, 32%), DJ Moore ($3.80, 32%), Dalton Kincaid ($3.90, 31%) and Justin Jefferson ($2.90, 30%) round out the anytime picks. First touchdown scorer is a longer shot across the board: James Cook III leads that line at $7.25 with the model at 13%, just ahead of Josh Allen at $7.00 and 11%.

For Minnesota to get there, the special teams edge needs to actually show up on the scoreboard and the defence needs to drag Buffalo's attack back toward its season numbers rather than its last-five blowouts. It's a genuine 41%, not a token one. But with the ratings gap, the quarterback and backfield edges, and five of the last five-game sets of form running hot for Buffalo, the model's landing on Bills by a slim 2.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Minnesota Vikings 3 · Buffalo Bills 4 |
| Last meeting | Minnesota Vikings 33-30 (2022) |
| Minnesota Vikings 2026 so far | 6-1 · 3-0 home |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.0 for · 13.3 against |
| Buffalo Bills 2026 so far | 6-1 · 3-0 away |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 33.3 for · 25.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Kyler Murray · Josh Allen |
| Head coaches | Kevin O'Connell · Sean McDermott |
| Market | Minnesota Vikings $2.52 · Buffalo Bills $1.52 |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -3.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 31.2pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.8pts |
| 4.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.4pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | W3 W · W4 W · W5 W · W7 W · W8 L | 18.4 |
| Buffalo Bills | W3 W · W4 L · W5 W · W6 W · W8 W | 31.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Buffalo Bills lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W10 | Buffalo Bills | 30 – 33 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2018 | W3 | Minnesota Vikings | 6 – 27 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2014 | W7 | Buffalo Bills | 17 – 16 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2010 | W13 | Minnesota Vikings | 38 – 14 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2006 | W4 | Buffalo Bills | 17 – 12 | Minnesota Vikings |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at U.S. Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Minnesota Vikings** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 29/49g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 30% Market priced |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 11/30g | 26% | — |
| – | Aaron Jones Sr. | RB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 12/22g | 32% | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 11/23g | 32% | — |
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/11g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 32% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 6% | — |
| – | Ben Yurosek | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — |
| – | Demond Claiborne | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Gavin Bartholomew | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 26% | — |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/5g | 20% | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — |

**Buffalo Bills** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 9 in 7g | 13/10g (2·2·0·2·2·2·1·1·0·1) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.90 AI 52% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 11% Market priced |
| – | James Cook III | RB | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.97 AI 65% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 13% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Keon Coleman | WR | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — |
| – | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 31% Market priced |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 32% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 18% | — |
| – | Jackson Hawes | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — |
| – | Keleki Latu | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| – | Skyler Bell | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Ty Johnson | RB | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 22% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Buffalo Bills** (4 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook III 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 65%
- ⚡ Josh Allen 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 52%
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32%
- ⚡ Dalton Kincaid — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31%
- Rest of the Bills: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Minnesota Vikings** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jordan Mason 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 32%
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30%
- Rest of the Vikings: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Buffalo Bills** (BUF)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid · Rec yds | U 44.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 41.2) | market |
| Dalton Kincaid · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.05 | 55% (expects 2.9) | market |
| DJ Moore · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.99 | 60% (expects 2.3) | market |
| DJ Moore · Rec yds | U 47.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 31.4) | market |
| James Cook III · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.55 | 58% (expects 1.4) | market |
| James Cook III · Rush yds | O 79.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 84.1) | market |
| James Cook III · Rec yds | U 13.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 9.0) | market |
| Josh Allen · Rush yds | O 30.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 34.0) | market |
| Josh Allen · Pass yds | U 236.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 227.7) | market |
| Josh Allen · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.60 | 57% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Keon Coleman · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.74 | 56% (expects 1.8) | market |
| Keon Coleman · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 21.3) | market |
| Khalil Shakir · Rec yds | O 36.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 38.7) | market |
| Khalil Shakir · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.83 | 53% (expects 3.9) | market |

**Minnesota Vikings** (MIN)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr. · Rush yds | O 31.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 38.0) | market |
| Jordan Addison · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.90 | 64% (expects 1.8) | market |
| Jordan Addison · Rec yds | U 39.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 25.0) | market |
| Jordan Mason · Rush yds | U 49.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 34.3) | market |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec | U 5.5 | $2.18 | 63% (expects 3.8) | market |
| Justin Jefferson · Rec yds | U 68.5 | $1.88 | 55% (expects 39.4) | market |
| Kyler Murray · Rush yds | O 17.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 23.9) | market |
| Kyler Murray · Pass yds | O 213.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 224.5) | market |
| Kyler Murray · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.66 | 58% (expects 1.0) | market |
| T.J. Hockenson · Rec yds | U 41.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 24.6) | market |
| T.J. Hockenson · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.88 | 62% (expects 3.0) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Minnesota Vikings 1616 · Buffalo Bills 1668 · ELO difference: 51 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Minnesota Vikings | Buffalo Bills | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 55 | Buffalo Bills +6 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 54 | Even |
| Backfield | 56 | 71 | Buffalo Bills +15 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 54 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |
| Secondary | 57 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 81 | 65 | Minnesota Vikings +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home Field | 16.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 15.1% | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Special Teams | 11.8% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Passing Game | 11.6% | Buffalo Bills |
| 5 | Recent Form | 11.3% | Buffalo Bills |
| 6 | Drive Efficiency | 8.3% | Buffalo Bills |
| 7 | Backfield | 5.2% | Buffalo Bills |
| 8 | Everything else | 6.8% | Buffalo Bills |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Buffalo Bills predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 34 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Buffalo Bills win, around 18–16 (total ~34 — under the 45.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 45.5 line (model projects 34).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)