# Miami Dolphins v Detroit Lions — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Miami Dolphins v Detroit Lions?

Alphr's NFL model makes Detroit Lions a clear 66% favourite over Miami Dolphins in Week 9. Predicted result: Detroit Lions by 2 in a low-scoring game (49 total, under the 50.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Detroit Lions lead on Team ELO, Receiving Corps and Quarterback. The edge is on the Miami Dolphins line at +7.0%.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing Detroit Lions and 0 taking Miami Dolphins.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 5 of 7 Miami Dolphins games and 5 of 7 Detroit Lions games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### Miami Dolphins v Detroit Lions
Mon, 09 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · Hard Rock Stadium · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.27 (edge -13.1%) — model probability 65.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +6.5 @ $2.04 (edge +7.0%) — model probability 56.0%
- **Margin Band:** Detroit Lions 1-10 @ $2.90 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 31.0%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 2 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview

**Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

Miami Dolphins meet Detroit Lions in NFL Week 9 at Hard Rock Stadium. The model makes Detroit Lions the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model has Detroit Lions at 66% to get the job done against Miami Dolphins. The biggest reason sits in the ratings: Lions at 1580 ELO to Dolphins at 1374, a 206-point gap that is hard to ignore.

Look at the positional numbers and it is not close. Quarterback is 68 to 36 in Detroit's favour, Receiving Corps 72 to 50, Backfield 74 to 55. Secondary goes the Lions' way 63 to 48. Pass Rush is basically level at 55 to 53, while Special Teams leans Detroit's way 73 to 68.

History has had its say too. Dolphins actually lead the head-to-head 4-3 across the last seven meetings, and won the last one back in 2022, 31-27 at Ford Field. That was a different team though, and the ratings gap now is nothing like it was then.

Form tells the real story this season. Miami's 1-6, 0-3 at home, scoring 16.7 and leaking 25.9 a game, last five reading LLLWL. Detroit's 5-2, 1-2 on the road, averaging 29.0 for and 25.7 against, on a WLWWW run. Detroit are averaging 28.2 points in their last five to Miami's 18.2, and winning by 6.4 a game on average while Miami's losing by 5.6.

Malik Willis runs it for Jeff Hafley's Dolphins, Jared Goff for Dan Campbell's Lions. Both sides come in on the same seven days' rest, so nobody's got an edge there.

For all that gap in the ratings, the model's margin stays tight: Detroit by 2.1, with the total landing around 49. The factors actually split fairly evenly, Miami gets Passing Game, Home Field, Running Game and Everything else in its corner, Detroit gets Team ELO, Receiving Corps, Quarterback and Pass Defence. That's why the number on the board isn't a blowout, even with the ELO gap doing the heavy lifting on the win probability.

The market has Detroit at $1.27 and Miami out to $3.78. The model's own number on Detroit comes in with an edge of minus 13.1%, so it reckons the market's actually overpriced the favourite here. On margin, the model likes Miami at the $2.04 price on the 6.5 line, no edge claimed since it doesn't price that market. Same story on the total: Under 50.5 at $1.86 is the model's lean, again without a stated edge.

In the scoring markets, Jahmyr Gibbs anytime touchdown at $1.24 carries the model's strongest conviction at 66%. Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime at $1.97 sits at 45%, with Jameson Williams ($2.70, 37%) and Ollie Gordon II ($2.10, 36%) further down the list. First touchdown scorer is longer odds across the board, Gibbs the standout at $3.40 for a 14% chance.

For Miami to turn this over, the home field edge and the running game need to actually show up, because the rest of the sheet reads Detroit from top to bottom. The model's leaning Lions by a couple of points in a game that should still find the scoreboard. Not a certainty, just where the numbers sit.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Miami Dolphins 4 · Detroit Lions 3 |
| Last meeting | Miami Dolphins 31-27 (2022) |
| Miami Dolphins 2026 so far | 1-6 · 0-3 home |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 16.7 for · 25.9 against |
| Detroit Lions 2026 so far | 5-2 · 1-2 away |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 29.0 for · 25.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Malik Willis · Jared Goff |
| Head coaches | Jeff Hafley · Dan Campbell |
| Market | Miami Dolphins $3.78 · Detroit Lions $1.27 |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6.5 · total 50.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.2pts | Avg Score | 28.2pts |
| 23.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.8pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W7 W · W8 L | 18.2 |
| Detroit Lions | W3 W · W4 L · W5 W · W7 W · W8 W | 28.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Detroit Lions lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W8 | Detroit Lions | 27 – 31 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2018 | W7 | Miami Dolphins | 21 – 32 | Detroit Lions |
| 2014 | W10 | Detroit Lions | 20 – 16 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2010 | W16 | Miami Dolphins | 27 – 34 | Detroit Lions |
| 2006 | W12 | Detroit Lions | 10 – 27 | Miami Dolphins |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hard Rock Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Miami Dolphins** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 36% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Malik Willis | QB | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 28% | — |
| – | Caleb Douglas | WR | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — |
| – | Kevin Coleman Jr. | WR | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 33% | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/18g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 30% Market priced |
| – | Chris Bell | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 10% | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 20% | — |
| – | Jared Wayne | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 8% | — |
| – | Justin Joly | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Kaytron Allen | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Seydou Traore | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| – | Will Kacmarek | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — |

**Detroit Lions** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 10 in 7g | 12/10g (1·0·1·2·1·3·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.24 AI 66% AI backs — priced short; 🎯 First TD $3.40 AI 14% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.97 AI 45% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 10% Market priced |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 37% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Sam LaPorta | TE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 32% Market priced |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — |
| – | Brock Wright | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| – | DeAndre Carter | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — |
| – | Jackson Meeks | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Sione Vaki | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Tay Martin | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — |
| – | Tyler Conklin | TE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 12% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Detroit Lions** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 1 pass) · model 66%
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 45%
- ⚡ Jameson Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 37%
- ⚡ Sam LaPorta — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 32%
- Rest of the Lions: 1 TD across the team's last 5

**Miami Dolphins** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ollie Gordon II 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 36%
- ⚡ Malik Washington — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30%
- Rest of the Dolphins: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Detroit Lions** (DET)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown · Rec yds | U 76.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 74.6) | market |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown · Rec | U 6.5 | $1.80 | 51% (expects 6.3) | market |
| Isaac TeSlaa · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.73 | 54% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Isaac TeSlaa · Rec yds | O 16.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 17.8) | market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.69 | 59% (expects 4.6) | market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rec yds | O 28.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 35.3) | market |
| Jahmyr Gibbs · Rush yds | U 98.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 83.4) | market |
| Jameson Williams · Rec yds | O 52.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 65.7) | market |
| Jameson Williams · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.93 | 53% (expects 3.9) | market |
| Jared Goff · Pass TDs | U 2.5 | $1.47 | 61% (expects 1.8) | market |
| Jared Goff · Pass yds | U 261.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 255.3) | market |
| Sam LaPorta · Rec yds | O 43.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 44.3) | market |
| Sam LaPorta · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.77 | 53% (expects 3.9) | market |
| Sione Vaki · Rush yds | U 19.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 10.2) | market |

**Miami Dolphins** (MIA)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Douglas · Rec yds | O 39.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 47.1) | market |
| Caleb Douglas · Rec | O 2.5 | $1.56 | 51% (expects 2.6) | market |
| Chris Bell · Rec yds | U 22.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 13.8) | market |
| Chris Bell · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.57 | 60% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Greg Dulcich · Rec yds | U 37.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 29.6) | market |
| Greg Dulcich · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.99 | 58% (expects 2.5) | market |
| Jaylen Wright · Rush yds | U 9.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 8.1) | market |
| Malik Washington · Rec yds | U 41.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 23.6) | market |
| Malik Washington · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.70 | 64% (expects 2.7) | market |
| Malik Willis · Rush yds | U 29.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 21.0) | market |
| Malik Willis · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.50 | 59% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Malik Willis · Pass yds | U 208.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 201.6) | market |
| Ollie Gordon II · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.93 | 58% (expects 0.5) | market |
| Ollie Gordon II · Rec yds | U 7.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 0.0) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Miami Dolphins 1374 · Detroit Lions 1580 · ELO difference: 206 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Miami Dolphins | Detroit Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 36 | 68 | Detroit Lions +32 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 72 | Detroit Lions +22 |
| Backfield | 55 | 74 | Detroit Lions +19 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 48 | 63 | Detroit Lions +15 |
| Special Teams | 68 | 73 | Detroit Lions +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 38.2% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Passing Game | 22.8% | Miami Dolphins |
| 3 | Home Field | 12.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 4 | Receiving Corps | 5.7% | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Running Game | 3.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Quarterback | 2.9% | Detroit Lions |
| 7 | Pass Defence | 2.4% | Detroit Lions |
| 8 | Everything else | 6.5% | Miami Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Detroit Lions win, around 25–23 (total ~49 — under the 50.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 50.5 line (model projects 49).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)