# Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans?

Alphr's NFL model makes Houston Texans a clear 67% favourite over Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9. Predicted result: Houston Texans by 4 in a high-scoring game (45 total, over the 40.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Houston Texans lead on Team ELO, Special Teams and Receiving Corps.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing Houston Texans and 0 taking Los Angeles Chargers.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 5 of 7 Los Angeles Chargers games and 3 of 7 Houston Texans games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans
Mon, 09 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT · SoFi Stadium · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.41 (edge -3.9%) — model probability 67.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 @ $1.87 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 51.7%
- **Margin Band:** Houston Texans 1-10 @ $2.50 (edge -8.9%) — model probability 31.1%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

Los Angeles Chargers meet Houston Texans in NFL Week 9 at SoFi Stadium. The model makes Houston Texans the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model is firm on Houston Texans here: 67% to see off Los Angeles Chargers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Houston Texans sit 118 ELO points clear, 1517 to 1399. Form leans Houston Texans' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Los Angeles Chargers.

Look at the positions and it is not close. Quarterback is the standout, 68 versus 20. Pass rush goes Houston Texans' way too, 62 to 53, and the secondary, 61 to 48. Special Teams sits at 73 to 54. Los Angeles Chargers get two factors in their column, Home Field and Running Game. Houston Texans get the rest: Team ELO, Special Teams, Receiving Corps, Pass Rush, Recent Form, and everything else.

History is actually tight. Eleven meetings, Los Angeles Chargers lead 6 to 5. But the last one went Houston Texans' way, 20-16, at this very ground.

Form tells the real story though. Los Angeles Chargers are 0-7 this season, 0-3 at home, scoring 14.1 and leaking 25.0 a game, five straight losses. Houston Texans are 2-5 overall but 2-1 on the road, averaging 23.6 for and 24.3 against, with a LLWWL finish to their last five. Neither side is setting the league alight, but one of them is at least moving in the right direction.

Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh are up against C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans, and Houston Texans walk in with 14 days of rest behind them against Los Angeles Chargers' 7 days. Not nothing, on a Monday night at SoFi Stadium.

The model's margin sits at Houston Texans by 4.3, with the total tipped around 45. The market has Houston Texans at -5.5 and the total at 40.5, so the model's actually a bit tighter on the margin than the line and a bit higher on the total than the number on offer.

Prices at publish: Houston Texans $1.41, Los Angeles Chargers $2.93. The model reckons that $1.41 is about 3.9% shorter than it should be, so it is not fussed about chasing value on the favourite here. Its own plays are Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 at $1.87 and the Over 40.5 at $1.85, both without a priced edge attached, just the model's lean.

On the scorers, the model likes Omarion Hampton and Woody Marks anytime at $3.90 and $2.15 respectively, both given 32% to cross. Nico Collins is next at $2.60 (31%), Dalton Schultz at $3.60 (25%), Xavier Hutchinson at $7.00 (23%) and even Justin Herbert gets a sniff anytime at $6.75 (21%). First-scorer money is longer odds across the board: Hampton $15.00 (8%), Collins $8.00 (8%), Schultz $11.00 (6%), Hutchinson $21.00 (6%).

For Los Angeles Chargers to flip this, the running game and the home crowd need to do some heavy lifting against a defence that is rated well ahead of their own attack. It is not impossible, SoFi is their house. But with the form line, the rest advantage and the ratings all pointing one way, the model's happy to back Houston Texans, just not by much.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Los Angeles Chargers 6 · Houston Texans 5 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 20-16 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2026 so far | 0-7 · 0-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 14.1 for · 25.0 against |
| Houston Texans 2026 so far | 2-5 · 2-1 away |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.6 for · 24.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · C.J. Stroud |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · DeMeco Ryans |
| Rest | Los Angeles Chargers 7d · Houston Texans 14d |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $2.93 · Houston Texans $1.41 |
| Spread | Houston Texans -5.5 · total 40.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.2pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 24.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -10.4pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W3 L · W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W8 L | 14.2 |
| Houston Texans | W3 L · W4 L · W5 W · W6 W · W7 L | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Los Angeles Chargers | 16 – 20 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | WC | Houston Texans | 32 – 12 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2022 | W4 | Houston Texans | 24 – 34 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2021 | W16 | Houston Texans | 41 – 29 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2019 | W3 | Los Angeles Chargers | 20 – 27 | Houston Texans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Omarion Hampton | RB | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/9g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 32% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/12g | 23% | — |
| – | Hayden Rucci | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 12% | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 10/20g | 30% | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden | TE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/12g | 18% | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 8% | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/27g | 4% | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/53g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.75 AI 21% Market priced |
| – | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 9% | — |
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/27g | 32% | — |
| – | Scott Matlock | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 6% | — |
| – | Theo Wease Jr. | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — |
| – | Tre' Harris | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 3% | — |

**Houston Texans** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Foster Moreau | TE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 18% | — |
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 31% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 36% | — |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 32% Market priced |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 8% | — |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime TD $7.00 AI 23% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Brevin Jordan | TE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| – | Cade Stover | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 25% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| – | Marlin Klein | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Tank Dell | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Houston Texans** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Woody Marks — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 32%
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31%
- ⚡ Dalton Schultz 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25%
- ⚡ Xavier Hutchinson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23%
- Rest of the Texans: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Chargers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Omarion Hampton 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 32%
- ⚡ Justin Herbert — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 21%
- Rest of the Chargers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Houston Texans** (HOU)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud · Pass yds | U 248.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 219.1) | market |
| C.J. Stroud · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 1.1) | market |
| C.J. Stroud · Rush yds | U 7.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 4.5) | market |
| Dalton Schultz · Rec yds | U 34.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 31.5) | market |
| Dalton Schultz · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.68 | 52% (expects 3.7) | market |
| Nico Collins · Rec yds | U 65.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 61.3) | market |
| Nico Collins · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.64 | 61% (expects 4.1) | market |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (LAC)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert · Rush yds | O 22.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 24.1) | market |
| Justin Herbert · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.38 | 56% (expects 1.1) | market |
| Justin Herbert · Pass yds | O 208.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 219.3) | market |
| Ladd McConkey · Rec yds | U 48.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 35.5) | market |
| Ladd McConkey · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.99 | 59% (expects 2.4) | market |
| Omarion Hampton · Rush yds | O 28.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 40.8) | market |
| Quentin Johnston · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.76 | 53% (expects 2.1) | market |
| Quentin Johnston · Rec yds | U 31.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 29.4) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1399 · Houston Texans 1517 · ELO difference: 118 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Houston Texans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 20 | 68 | Houston Texans +48 |
| Receiving Corps | 46 | 56 | Houston Texans +10 |
| Backfield | 52 | 55 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 62 | Houston Texans +9 |
| Secondary | 48 | 61 | Houston Texans +13 |
| Special Teams | 54 | 73 | Houston Texans +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 29.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Home Field | 12.4% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 3 | Special Teams | 9.8% | Houston Texans |
| 4 | Running Game | 6.9% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 5 | Receiving Corps | 6.6% | Houston Texans |
| 6 | Pass Rush | 6.5% | Houston Texans |
| 7 | Recent Form | 4.9% | Houston Texans |
| 8 | Everything else | 16.1% | Houston Texans |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Houston Texans predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Houston Texans win, around 25–20 (total ~45 — over the 40.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 40.5 line (model projects 45).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)