# Indianapolis Colts v Dallas Cowboys — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Indianapolis Colts v Dallas Cowboys?

Alphr's NFL model makes Dallas Cowboys a clear 66% favourite over Indianapolis Colts in Week 9. Predicted result: Dallas Cowboys by 5 in a low-scoring game (51 total, under the 51.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Indianapolis Colts are stronger on paper, but Team ELO and Everything else tip the model to Dallas Cowboys.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing Dallas Cowboys and 0 taking Indianapolis Colts.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 5 of 8 Indianapolis Colts games and 4 of 8 Dallas Cowboys games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### Indianapolis Colts v Dallas Cowboys
Mon, 09 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.36 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 66.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts +5.5 @ $1.93 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 50.4%
- **Margin Band:** Dallas Cowboys 1-10 @ $2.70 (edge -6.0%) — model probability 31.1%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 5 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview

**Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

Indianapolis Colts meet Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 9 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The model makes Dallas Cowboys the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model's leaning Dallas Cowboys here, 66% to Indianapolis Colts' 34%. The main reason is blunt: Team ELO. Dallas Cowboys sit 41 points clear on the ratings, 1446 to 1405, and the model reckons that gap plus "everything else" outweighs the six factors actually running the Colts' way: Passing Game, Home Field, Special Teams, Explosive Plays, Pass Defence and Turnovers. Worth saying plainly, because it's unusual: most of the ledger favours the home side, and the model's still picking against it.

Dig into the positions and you can see why Dallas Cowboys get the nod regardless. Quarterback is the whole ball game: Dak Prescott rates 54, Daniel Jones 27, which is about as lopsided as these things get. Dallas Cowboys also edge the Backfield, 67 to 59. The Colts claw some back with Receiving Corps, 68 to 59, and Special Teams, 77 to 62, which lines up with the factor list. Pass Rush and Secondary are close, 47-50 and 49-52.

History doesn't offer the Colts much comfort. Dallas Cowboys lead the last seven meetings 4-3, and the most recent one wasn't close: a 54-19 belting at AT&T Stadium back in 2022.

Form tells two different stories. Indianapolis Colts are 2-6 this season, 1-2 at home, scoring 20.1 and leaking 27.8 a game, and they've dropped four straight after an opening win, WLLLL. Dallas Cowboys are 3-5, 2-2 on the road, scoring 27.4 and conceding 26.6, with a WLLWL run that's at least shown signs of life. Average margin says it all: Indianapolis Colts minus 8.4 over their last five, Dallas Cowboys dead level at zero.

Daniel Jones runs it for Indianapolis Colts under Shane Steichen, Dak Prescott for Dallas Cowboys under Brian Schottenheimer. Both sides come in on the same seven days' rest, so nobody's getting a scheduling leg up.

The model's margin sits at Dallas Cowboys by 5.2, with the total tipped around 51. The market's spread is Dallas Cowboys -5.5 and the total 51.5, so the model's basically nodding along with both numbers rather than fighting them.

In the market, Dallas Cowboys are $1.36 and Indianapolis Colts $3.16. The model's own number implies less value in the favourite than the price suggests, an edge of -7.0% against the market on that H2H line. It still likes Indianapolis Colts plus the points at $1.93 and the Under 51.5 at $1.90, though it doesn't price those markets itself, so there's no stated edge there, just the pick.

For the scorers, Jonathan Taylor's the standout at $1.72 anytime, with the model giving him 65%. Javonte Williams isn't far behind at $1.47 and 64%. CeeDee Lamb's anytime price of $1.95 lines up close to a coin flip at 48%, while George Pickens drifts out to $2.45 at 31%. If you want first scorer, Taylor's $7.25 at 14% is the shortest price in that market.

So the honest read: the Colts have more factors in their favour and home field to lean on, but the quarterback gap and the overall rating have the model going the other way. For Indianapolis Colts to cause the upset, Daniel Jones needs to find some of that passing edge the numbers credit him with, and the defence needs to hold a Dallas Cowboys backfield rated above them. Until that shows up, the model's sticking with Dallas Cowboys, by a touchdown or so, in a game it doesn't expect to get out of hand.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Indianapolis Colts 3 · Dallas Cowboys 4 |
| Last meeting | Dallas Cowboys 54-19 (2022) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2026 so far | 2-6 · 1-2 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 20.1 for · 27.8 against |
| Dallas Cowboys 2026 so far | 3-5 · 2-2 away |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.4 for · 26.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Daniel Jones · Dak Prescott |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · Brian Schottenheimer |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $3.16 · Dallas Cowboys $1.36 |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -5.5 · total 51.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 26.2pts |
| 26.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.2pts |
| -8.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W4 W · W5 L · W6 L · W7 L · W8 L | 17.8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | W4 W · W5 L · W6 L · W7 W · W8 L | 26.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W13 | Dallas Cowboys | 54 – 19 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2018 | W15 | Indianapolis Colts | 23 – 0 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2014 | W16 | Dallas Cowboys | 42 – 7 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2010 | W13 | Indianapolis Colts | 35 – 38 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2006 | W11 | Dallas Cowboys | 21 – 14 | Indianapolis Colts |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 8 in 8g | 9/10g (1·0·2·2·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 46/46g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 65% AI backs — priced short; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 14% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/11g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 28% Market priced |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/10g | 20% | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/28g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 31% Market priced |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/4g | 22% | — |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 10/53g | 16% | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 0% | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/39g | 4% | — |
| – | Deion Burks | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Drew Ogletree | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/20g | 10% | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 6% | — |
| – | Pharaoh Brown | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 2% | — |
| – | Will Mallory | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — |

**Dallas Cowboys** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 9 in 8g | 10/10g (0·1·2·0·1·3·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.47 AI 64% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $4.80 AI 14% Market priced |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 48% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 10% Market priced |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 31% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 7% Market priced |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — |
| – | Camden Brown | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — |
| – | Jonathan Mingo | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/13g | 4% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Dallas Cowboys** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 0 pass) · model 64%
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 48%
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31%
- Rest of the Cowboys: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Indianapolis Colts** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 65%
- ⚡ Josh Downs — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 31%
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 28%
- Rest of the Colts: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Dallas Cowboys** (DAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb · Rec yds | U 81.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 73.3) | market |
| CeeDee Lamb · Rec | U 6.5 | $1.80 | 57% (expects 5.6) | market |
| Dak Prescott · Rush yds | O 5.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 7.7) | market |
| Dak Prescott · Pass TDs | U 2.5 | $1.47 | 69% (expects 1.3) | market |
| Dak Prescott · Pass yds | U 259.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 252.4) | market |
| George Pickens · Rec | O 4.5 | $1.83 | 50% (expects 4.5) | market |
| George Pickens · Rec yds | O 62.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 64.6) | market |
| Javonte Williams · Rec yds | U 7.5 | $1.99 | 51% (expects 4.0) | market |
| Javonte Williams · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.74 | 51% (expects 1.6) | market |
| Javonte Williams · Rush yds | U 70.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 58.2) | market |
| Ryan Flournoy · Rec yds | U 38.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 31.9) | market |
| Ryan Flournoy · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.80 | 54% (expects 3.0) | market |

**Indianapolis Colts** (IND)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones · Rush yds | O 7.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 8.1) | market |
| Daniel Jones · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.58 | 58% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Daniel Jones · Pass yds | O 204.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 216.6) | market |
| Tyler Warren · Rec yds | U 42.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 28.9) | market |
| Tyler Warren · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.79 | 61% (expects 4.1) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1405 · Dallas Cowboys 1446 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of Dallas Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Dallas Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 27 | 54 | Dallas Cowboys +27 |
| Receiving Corps | 68 | 59 | Indianapolis Colts +9 |
| Backfield | 59 | 67 | Dallas Cowboys +8 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 49 | 52 | Even |
| Special Teams | 77 | 62 | Indianapolis Colts +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Passing Game | 26.5% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2 | Home Field | 14.9% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 3 | Special Teams | 10.7% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 4 | Explosive Plays | 7.4% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Team ELO | 6.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Pass Defence | 4.8% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 7 | Turnovers | 4.5% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 8 | Everything else | 10.4% | Dallas Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Dallas Cowboys predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Dallas Cowboys win, around 28–23 (total ~51 — under the 51.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 51.5 line (model projects 51).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)