# Chicago Bears v Tampa Bay Buccaneers — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Chicago Bears v Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Alphr's NFL model makes Chicago Bears a clear 72% favourite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9. Predicted result: Chicago Bears by 6 in a low-scoring game (47 total, under the 47.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Chicago Bears lead on Team ELO, Home Field and Pass Defence.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing Chicago Bears and 0 taking Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 5 of 8 Chicago Bears games and 4 of 8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### Chicago Bears v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mon, 09 Nov, 12:20 pm AEDT · Soldier Field · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.34 (edge -3.0%) — model probability 71.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 @ $1.90 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 51.2%
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-10 @ $2.70 (edge -6.0%) — model probability 31.1%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.89 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview

**Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

Chicago Bears meet Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 9 at Soldier Field. The model makes Chicago Bears the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model is firm on Chicago Bears here: 72% to see off Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Chicago Bears sit 121 ELO points clear, 1615 to 1494. Form leans Chicago Bears' way too, 4 from their last 5 against 3 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Look at the positions and it is mostly one-way traffic. Chicago Bears' quarterback rating is 66 to Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 35, which is not a close number. Receiving Corps goes 70 to 48 the same way. Pass Rush edges it too, 55 to 49. Tampa Bay Buccaneers do hold an edge in the Backfield, 63 to 57, and in the Secondary, 62 to 55, plus Special Teams, 70 to 66, which happens to be the one factor the model actually credits them with. Everything else on the factor list, Chicago Bears lead: Team ELO, Home Field, Pass Defence, Running Game, Pass Rush and Receiving Corps.

History is split, but recent history belongs to Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Chicago Bears lead the head-to-head 7-5 across the last 12 meetings, but the most recent one went the other way: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 27-17 back in 2023 at Raymond James Stadium. Worth remembering before anyone gets too comfortable with the home number.

Form is where Chicago Bears pull clear again. They are 6-2 this season, 3-1 at home, scoring 26.8 and conceding 20.0 a game, and they have won four of their last five with the only blip an early loss in that WLWWW string. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-5, 2-1 on the road, putting up 22.3 and conceding 18.9, last five reading LWLWW. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are actually tighter defensively in that recent sample, averaging just 14.4 conceded against Chicago Bears' 21.4, and their average margin over the last five, plus 8.8, beats Chicago Bears' plus 3.6. So the ladder gap is real but the Bucs have not been getting blown out.

Caleb Williams starts under Ben Johnson for Chicago Bears, Baker Mayfield under Todd Bowles for Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Chicago Bears come into this on six days' rest, Tampa Bay Buccaneers on seven, so there is a small turnaround edge for the visitors if that matters to you.

On the scoreboard, the model has Chicago Bears by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 47. That lines up neatly with the market's total of 47.5 but sits a bit shy of the market's spread, which has Chicago Bears favoured by 6.5. Translation: the model backs the win, just not quite by as much as the line wants.

Chicago Bears are $1.34 in the market, and the model reckons that is about 3% skinnier than it should be, so no edge there, it is just confirming the favourite. If you want the model's actual plays, it likes the Under 47.5 at $1.89 and leans towards Tampa Bay Buccaneers covering the 6.5 at $1.90, though neither of those markets get an edge number attached, they are just where the model's lean sits. On tries, D'Andre Swift anytime at $1.55 is the headline, with the model giving him a 64% shot, and Bucky Irving anytime at $2.20 sits at 53%. First scorer is longer odds across the board: Swift at $4.70 (14%), Irving at $10.00 (12%), with Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland both squeezed into single-digit model chances at double-figure prices.

For Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cause the upset, the Special Teams edge and that tighter recent defensive number need to actually show up on the scoreboard, not just in the stat line. The model's not dismissing them, it is just backing the bigger side across almost every factor that matters. Chicago Bears the pick, a workmanlike one rather than a statement win.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 7 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 |
| Last meeting | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-17 (2023) |
| Chicago Bears 2026 so far | 6-2 · 3-1 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 26.8 for · 20.0 against |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 so far | 3-5 · 2-1 away |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.3 for · 18.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Baker Mayfield |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Todd Bowles |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.34 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.30 |
| Spread | Chicago Bears -6.5 · total 47.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.0pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 21.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W4 W · W5 L · W6 W · W7 W · W8 W | 25.0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W4 L · W5 W · W6 L · W7 W · W8 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | W2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 – 17 | Chicago Bears |
| 2021 | W7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 38 – 3 | Chicago Bears |
| 2020 | W5 | Chicago Bears | 20 – 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2018 | W4 | Chicago Bears | 48 – 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2017 | W2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 – 7 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·1·2·1·3) | 0/3g | 9/24g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.55 AI 64% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $4.70 AI 14% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/13g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 37% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/20g | 12% | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/14g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 29% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 6% Market priced |
| – | Jahdae Walker | WR | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 30% | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/8g | 12% | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/17g | 18% | — |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/19g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 26% Market priced |
| – | Sam Roush | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| – | Zavier Scott | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 4% | — |
| – | Zavion Thomas | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — |

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 53% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 12% Market priced |
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 24% Market priced |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 20% | — |
| – | Ted Hurst III | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| – | Bauer Sharp | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 22% | — |
| – | David Sills V | WR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 12% | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — |
| – | Ko Kieft | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — |
| – | Payne Durham | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 53%
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 24%
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Chicago Bears** (4 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 0 pass) · model 64%
- ⚡ Luther Burden III 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 37%
- ⚡ Colston Loveland 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29%
- ⚡ Rome Odunze — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26%
- Rest of the Bears: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (TB)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.57 | 56% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Baker Mayfield · Pass yds | U 213.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 179.9) | market |
| Baker Mayfield · Rush yds | U 17.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 14.6) | market |
| Bucky Irving · Rec yds | U 13.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 11.9) | market |
| Bucky Irving · Rush yds | U 63.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 60.8) | market |
| Bucky Irving · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.80 | 55% (expects 1.8) | market |
| Emeka Egbuka · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.28 | 53% (expects 3.1) | market |
| Emeka Egbuka · Rec yds | U 52.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 31.6) | market |
| Kenny Gainwell · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.60 | 58% (expects 2.5) | market |
| Kenny Gainwell · Rush yds | O 21.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 38.6) | market |
| Kenny Gainwell · Rec yds | O 10.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 15.8) | market |

**Chicago Bears** (CHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams · Rush yds | U 19.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 16.9) | market |
| Caleb Williams · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $2.15 | 58% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Caleb Williams · Pass yds | U 245.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 233.4) | market |
| Colston Loveland · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.73 | 61% (expects 4.1) | market |
| Colston Loveland · Rec yds | U 50.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 44.2) | market |
| D'Andre Swift · Rec yds | U 21.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 10.8) | market |
| D'Andre Swift · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.12 | 55% (expects 1.8) | market |
| D'Andre Swift · Rush yds | U 65.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 56.3) | market |
| Kalif Raymond · Rec yds | O 15.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 21.0) | market |
| Kalif Raymond · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.56 | 56% (expects 2.2) | market |
| Luther Burden III · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.67 | 61% (expects 4.2) | market |
| Luther Burden III · Rec yds | U 65.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 54.6) | market |
| Rome Odunze · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.63 | 57% (expects 2.7) | market |
| Rome Odunze · Rec yds | U 50.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 44.8) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1615 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1494 · ELO difference: 121 in favour of Chicago Bears

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 66 | 35 | Chicago Bears +31 |
| Receiving Corps | 70 | 48 | Chicago Bears +22 |
| Backfield | 57 | 63 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 49 | Chicago Bears +6 |
| Secondary | 55 | 62 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 |
| Special Teams | 66 | 70 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 34.4% | Chicago Bears |
| 2 | Home Field | 12.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 3 | Pass Defence | 8.1% | Chicago Bears |
| 4 | Running Game | 7.9% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Pass Rush | 6.8% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Receiving Corps | 5.2% | Chicago Bears |
| 7 | Special Teams | 3.8% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 8 | Everything else | 0.1% | — |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Chicago Bears win, around 26–21 (total ~47 — under the 47.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 47.5 line (model projects 47).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)