# Baltimore Ravens v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Baltimore Ravens v Jacksonville Jaguars?

Alphr's NFL model makes Jacksonville Jaguars a clear 81% favourite over Baltimore Ravens in Week 9. Predicted result: Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 in a low-scoring game (38 total, under the 39.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Jacksonville Jaguars lead on Team ELO, Pass Defence and Pass Rush.

Early community read: 1 member call so far, 1 backing Jacksonville Jaguars and 0 taking Baltimore Ravens.

In 2026 the Alphr NFL model has called 4 of 8 Baltimore Ravens games and 6 of 7 Jacksonville Jaguars games correctly.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · 62.5% head-to-head accuracy across 120 verified 2026 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Live picks are published before kick-off and never edited._

### Baltimore Ravens v Jacksonville Jaguars
Fri, 06 Nov, 12:15 pm AEDT · M&T Bank Stadium · Week 9

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.18 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 80.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 @ $1.83 (edge -1.1%) — model probability 53.5%
- **Margin Band:** Jacksonville Jaguars 11+ @ $1.95 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 50.4%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 39.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview

**Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 5 Nov 2026, 08:25 pm_

Baltimore Ravens meet Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 9 at M&T Bank Stadium. The model makes Jacksonville Jaguars the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 81% to get the job done against Baltimore Ravens, and it is not a close call in its head. The big number driving it is the ratings gap: Jacksonville Jaguars sit on 1610 ELO, Baltimore Ravens on 1504, a 106-point gulf. Home Field and Passing Game are the only two factors running Baltimore Ravens' way, and the model's decided they are not enough to close it.

Look at the positions and you will see why. Trevor Lawrence rates 67 at quarterback to Tyler Huntley's 50, and Jacksonville Jaguars hold the Secondary edge too, 58 to 52. Pair that with Pass Defence and Pass Rush both leaning Jacksonville Jaguars' way, and you have got a side built to stop the thing Baltimore Ravens actually do well.

History is a mixed bag. Baltimore Ravens lead the head-to-head 7 wins to 5 across the last 12 meetings, and they won the last one comfortably, 23-7, back in Week 15 of 2023 at TIAA Bank Stadium. That was Jacksonville Jaguars on the road though, and the shoe is on the other foot now.

Form says plenty. Baltimore Ravens are 4-4 this season, just 1-2 at home, scoring 22.4 and leaking 25.4 a game, and they have dropped three straight to limp into this one WWLLL. Jacksonville Jaguars are 5-2, 1-1 away, putting up 28.0 and conceding only 15.9, riding WWWLW. The last-five numbers back that up cold: 29.8 points a game for Jacksonville Jaguars against 17.4 for Baltimore Ravens, and a conceded split of 16.2 to 25.

Jesse Minter and Liam Coen both named their starters, Huntley and Lawrence, and both sides come in on the same 4 days' rest. Kickoff is Friday, local time.

The model's margin sits at Jacksonville Jaguars by 12.1, with the total landing around 38. The market's spread is tighter, Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5, and the total is set at 39.5, so the model wants a bit more Jacksonville Jaguars and a bit less scoring than the line suggests.

Jacksonville Jaguars are $1.18 in the market, Baltimore Ravens out at $4.95, and the model actually sees an edge of -3.8% against its own number there, so it is not fussed about chasing that price. It likes Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 at $1.83 on the margin and the under 39.5 at $1.90 on the total, though it does not price either market itself. On the scoring front, Bhayshul Tuten's anytime try at $2.08 gets the model's highest nod at 51%, with Derrick Henry anytime at $2.45 close behind on 50%. If you want a first scorer, Tuten at $6.00 carries an 11% chance in the model's eyes.

For Baltimore Ravens to make a fist of this, Huntley needs to find something through the air that the Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has not been letting teams find, and the home crowd needs to matter more than it has the last three weeks. On the numbers in front of it, the model's not banking on that. It is leaning Jacksonville Jaguars, and leaning hard.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Baltimore Ravens 7 · Jacksonville Jaguars 5 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 23-7 (2023) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2026 so far | 4-4 · 1-2 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 22.4 for · 25.4 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 so far | 5-2 · 1-1 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 28.0 for · 15.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tyler Huntley · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Jesse Minter · Liam Coen |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $4.95 · Jacksonville Jaguars $1.18 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 · total 39.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 17.4pts | Avg Score | 29.8pts |
| 25.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | 13.6pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W4 W · W5 W · W6 L · W7 L · W8 L | 17.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W3 W · W4 W · W5 W · W6 L · W8 W | 29.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | W15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 – 23 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2022 | W12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 28 – 27 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2020 | W15 | Baltimore Ravens | 40 – 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2017 | W3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 44 – 7 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2016 | W3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 – 19 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 9 in 8g | 13/10g (4·0·3·1·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 17/15g | 24/23g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 50% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 11% Market priced |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 9/29g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.90 AI 25% Market priced |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 23% | — |
| – | Josh Cuevas | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 29/68g | 32% | — |
| – | Matthew Hibner | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/39g | 28% | — |
| – | Elijah Sarratt | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Joe Fagnano | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/47g | 18% | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/10g | 0% | — |
| – | Nick Vannett | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/13g | 3% | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.08 AI 51% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 11% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 37% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.08 AI 36% Market priced; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 8% Market priced |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 37% | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — |
| – | Josh Cameron | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — |
| – | Nate Boerkircher | TE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 26% Market priced |
| – | Travis Hunter | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — |
| – | CJ Williams | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — |
| – | Tanner Koziol | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 3 pass) · model 51%
- ⚡ Parker Washington 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37%
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 36%
- ⚡ Brenton Strange — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26%
- Rest of the Jaguars: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Baltimore Ravens** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 50%
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 25%
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (JAX)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 32.8) | market |
| Brenton Strange · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.93 | 55% (expects 3.0) | market |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.62 | 53% (expects 3.2) | market |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec yds | U 38.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 38.1) | market |
| Nate Boerkircher · Rec | O 0.5 | $1.44 | 53% (expects 0.9) | market |
| Nate Boerkircher · Rec yds | O 8.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 8.7) | market |
| Parker Washington · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.80 | 58% (expects 3.5) | market |
| Parker Washington · Rec yds | U 63.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 58.1) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Rush yds | O 12.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 13.9) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Pass yds | U 237.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 234.3) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Pass TDs | O 1.5 | $1.81 | 55% (expects 1.8) | market |

**Baltimore Ravens** (BAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry · Rec yds | U 7.5 | $1.80 | 50% (expects 6.9) | market |
| Derrick Henry · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.73 | 54% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Derrick Henry · Rush yds | O 69.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 79.0) | market |
| Ja'Kobi Lane · Rec yds | U 16.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 13.2) | market |
| Ja'Kobi Lane · Rec | O 1.5 | $1.83 | 51% (expects 1.6) | market |
| Justice Hill · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.84 | 58% (expects 1.5) | market |
| Justice Hill · Rec yds | U 14.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 9.8) | market |
| Justice Hill · Rush yds | U 13.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 10.4) | market |
| Mark Andrews · Rec yds | U 18.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 17.1) | market |
| Mark Andrews · Rec | U 2.5 | $2.12 | 51% (expects 2.4) | market |
| Rashod Bateman · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.73 | 52% (expects 1.3) | market |
| Rashod Bateman · Rec yds | O 15.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 17.7) | market |
| Zay Flowers · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.76 | 51% (expects 4.4) | market |
| Zay Flowers · Rec yds | O 48.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 69.6) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1504 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1610 · ELO difference: 106 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 50 | 67 | Jacksonville Jaguars +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 58 | Even |
| Backfield | 58 | 57 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 49 | 49 | Even |
| Secondary | 52 | 58 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 |
| Special Teams | 61 | 60 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 36.2% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2 | Home Field | 14.5% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Defence | 9.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 4 | Pass Rush | 7.4% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 5 | Quarterback | 7.2% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Recent Form | 5.1% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 7 | Passing Game | 3.8% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 8 | Everything else | 0.4% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Jacksonville Jaguars win, around 25–13 (total ~38 — under the 39.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 39.5 line (model projects 38).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-11-05 09:25 UTC (latest tip update)