# New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders?

Alphr's NFL model makes New England Patriots a clear 74% favourite over Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5. Predicted result: New England Patriots by 13 in a low-scoring game (41 total, under the 45.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Las Vegas Raiders are stronger on paper, but Team Rating (ELO) tips the model to New England Patriots. The edge is on the New England Patriots line at +10.0%.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 12 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Gillette Stadium · Week 5

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.49 (edge +7.2%) — model probability 74.4%
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots -3.5 @ $1.89 (edge +10.0%) — model probability 62.9%
- **Margin Band:** New England Patriots 1-13 @ $2.12 (edge -7.5%) — model probability 39.6%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.84 (edge -4.3%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 13 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview

**New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 Oct 2026, 05:55 pm_

New England Patriots meet Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 5 at Gillette Stadium. The model makes New England Patriots the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model is firm on the New England Patriots here: 74% to see off the Las Vegas Raiders. Its conviction is driven hard by the overall team rating.

New England Patriots have a substantial 154-point ELO advantage, sitting at 1586 compared to the Las Vegas Raiders' 1432. This is the biggest factor in the model's call. On paper the Las Vegas Raiders shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 positional ratings including Quarterback at 60 versus 16, Receiving Corps 61 to 51, Backfield 49 to 43, Pass Rush 54 to 50, and Special Teams 66 to 46. The Secondary is even enough at 66 versus 67.

Looking at the history, the New England Patriots have generally had the better of the Las Vegas Raiders, winning 7 of their last 11 meetings. However, the most recent clash saw the Las Vegas Raiders take a 20-13 victory at Gillette Stadium in Week 1 of 2025. This shows the Las Vegas Raiders can certainly get a result at this venue.

In terms of recent form, the Las Vegas Raiders have been the stronger side, with 4 wins from their last 5 games compared to the New England Patriots' 2. Over their last five, the Las Vegas Raiders have averaged 25.8 points for and 19.2 points against, with an average winning margin of 6.6 points. The New England Patriots, by contrast, have averaged 15.6 points for and 21.2 points against, with an average losing margin of 5.6 points. The New England Patriots' last five run is LLWLW, while the Las Vegas Raiders' is WWWWL.

This season, the New England Patriots hold a 2-2 regular season record, with a perfect 1-0 at home. They have scored 16.3 points per game and conceded 19.3. The Las Vegas Raiders have started strong at 3-1, with a 2-0 record on the road. They are averaging 28.8 points for and 21.0 against per game. Both teams come into this game with 7 days of rest.

The predicted score shape sees the New England Patriots winning by 13.2 points, with a combined total of 41 points. The market has the New England Patriots at $1.49 for the head-to-head, and the model sees a +7.2% edge there. The market total line is 45.5, with the model favouring the under at $1.84. The margin line is New England Patriots -3.5 at $1.89, which the model also likes.

For anytime touchdown scorers, the model's top picks include Rhamondre Stevenson at $1.76 (44% chance) and Ashton Jeanty at $1.96 (42% chance). Brock Bowers is also rated a 31% chance at $2.55, and TreVeyon Henderson a 25% chance at $1.76. Quarterback Drake Maye is given a 24% chance at $5.25, and Romeo Doubs also 24% at $2.90.

Despite the Las Vegas Raiders' recent form and positional strengths in areas like quarterback and pass rush, the model's high confidence in the New England Patriots stems from their superior overall team rating. For the Las Vegas Raiders to pull off an upset, they would need their strong quarterback play and pass rush to significantly disrupt the New England Patriots' game plan, overcoming the ELO gap. The model expects the New England Patriots to secure a clear win at home.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | New England Patriots 7 · Las Vegas Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Las Vegas Raiders 20-13 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2026 so far | 2-2 · 1-0 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 16.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2026 so far | 3-1 · 2-0 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 28.8 for · 21.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Kirk Cousins |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Klint Kubliak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 25.8pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | SB L · W1 L · W2 W · W3 L · W4 W | 15.6 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W18 W · W1 W · W2 W · W3 W · W4 L | 25.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Las Vegas Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W1 | New England Patriots | 13 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W6 | Las Vegas Raiders | 21 – 17 | New England Patriots |
| 2022 | W15 | Las Vegas Raiders | 30 – 24 | New England Patriots |
| 2020 | W3 | New England Patriots | 36 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2017 | W11 | Las Vegas Raiders | 8 – 33 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 24% Market priced |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 17% | — |
| – | Eli Raridon | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 1 in 4g | 7/10g (2·3·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 17/35g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.76 AI 44% Market priced |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/12g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.76 AI 25% Market priced |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/25g | 16% | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/18g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.25 AI 24% Market priced |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 15/44g | 22% | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 13% | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Cody White | WR | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 42% Market priced |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (3·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 31% Market priced |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — |
| – | Mike Washington Jr. | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 18% | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Kirk Cousins | QB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — |
| – | Malik Benson | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 42%
- ⚡ Brock Bowers — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 31%
- Rest of the Raiders: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 44%
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 25%
- ⚡ Drake Maye — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24%
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 24% · new club
- Rest of the Patriots: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (LV)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.66 | 54% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Kirk Cousins · Pass yds | O 225.5 | $1.88 | — | market |

**New England Patriots** (NE)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.82 | 58% (expects 0.9) | market |
| Drake Maye · Pass yds | U 227.5 | $1.88 | — | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1586 · Las Vegas Raiders 1432 · ELO difference: 154 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 16 | 60 | Las Vegas Raiders +44 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 61 | Las Vegas Raiders +10 |
| Backfield | 43 | 49 | Las Vegas Raiders +6 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 66 | 67 | Even |
| Special Teams | 46 | 66 | Las Vegas Raiders +20 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring New England Patriots win, around 27–14 (total ~41 — under the 45.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 45.5 line (model projects 41).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-07 06:55 UTC (latest tip update)