# Jacksonville Jaguars v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Jacksonville Jaguars v Philadelphia Eagles?

Alphr's NFL model makes Jacksonville Jaguars a clear 70% favourite over Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5. Predicted result: Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 in a high-scoring game (50 total, over the 41.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Jacksonville Jaguars lead on Team Rating (ELO) and Recent Form.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Jacksonville Jaguars v Philadelphia Eagles
Mon, 12 Oct, 12:30 am AEDT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Week 5

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.27 (edge -9.2%) — model probability 69.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 @ $1.83 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 52.0%
- **Margin Band:** Jacksonville Jaguars 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 39.7%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.85 (edge -4.1%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 Oct 2026, 05:55 pm_

Jacksonville Jaguars meet Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 5 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The model makes Jacksonville Jaguars the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model is firm on the Jacksonville Jaguars here, giving them a 70% chance to beat the Philadelphia Eagles. The market disagrees, pricing the Eagles as favourites at $1.80 and the Jaguars at $2.05. That gap alone flags an edge the model is prepared to take.

Jacksonville’s ELO rating stands at 1609, a clear 78 points ahead of Philadelphia’s 1530. This ratings gap is the single biggest driver behind the model’s conviction. The Jaguars also hold an advantage in several key positional matchups, most notably their Receiving Corps (57 vs 50), Backfield (57 vs 49), and Special Teams (63 vs 52). While the Pass Rush (51 vs 52) and Secondary (53 vs 55) are marginally in Philadelphia’s favour, the Jaguars’ strengths in other areas seem to outweigh these.

Historically, the Philadelphia Eagles have had the better of this fixture, winning five of the last seven meetings. Their most recent clash in Week 9 of 2024 saw the Eagles win 28-23 at Lincoln Financial Field. However, the model is looking past this historical trend, leaning heavily on current team strength and recent performance.

Both teams come into this game with seven days of rest. The Jaguars’ recent form has been stronger, with three wins from their last five games (LWLWW), averaging 25.6 points for and conceding just 16 points per game, for an average margin of 9.6 points. Their 2026 season record so far is 3-1, including a perfect 2-0 at home. In contrast, the Eagles have won two of their last five (LWWLL), averaging 18.8 points for and giving up 23.2 points per game, resulting in an average margin of -4.4 points. Their season record is 2-2, with a 1-1 record on the road.

This game is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, an outdoor grass venue. With both teams having identical rest days, neither side holds a specific advantage there. The Quarterback matchup between Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars and Jalen Hurts for the Eagles is rated as an even factor by the model, with Lawrence at 56 and Hurts at 53. Similarly, the Pass Rush and Secondary ratings are close, suggesting these areas will be tightly contested.

The model predicts a margin of 6.1 points in favour of the Jacksonville Jaguars, with a combined total of 50 points. The market currently has the total line at 45.5, and the model is picking the Over at $1.85. For the margin, the market has the Eagles at -1.5, while the model is firm on the Jaguars.

In the touchdown markets, the model is highlighting Bhayshul Tuten as an anytime touchdown scorer with a 39% chance, priced at $2.05. Parker Washington also features prominently with a 38% chance at $2.70. Other players to watch include Chris Rodriguez Jr. (34% at $4.20), Brenton Strange (24% at $4.30), Jakobi Meyers (23% at $4.00), and Trevor Lawrence himself (22% at $4.20).

For the Eagles to upset the model’s read, they would need to leverage their slight advantages in Pass Rush and Secondary, and perhaps draw on their historical dominance in this fixture. However, the Jaguars’ superior ELO rating, stronger receiving corps and backfield, and more convincing recent form make them the clear pick here. The model is confident the Jaguars will get the job done.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Jacksonville Jaguars 2 · Philadelphia Eagles 5 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 28-23 (2024) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 so far | 3-1 · 2-0 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 26.0 for · 13.3 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2026 so far | 2-2 · 1-1 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 18.8 for · 23.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Nick Sirianni |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $2.05 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.80 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| 9.6pts | Avg Margin | -4.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | WC L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W | 25.6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | WC L · W1 W · W2 W · W3 L · W4 L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | W9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 28 – 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2022 | W4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 29 – 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2018 | W8 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 18 – 24 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2014 | W1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 34 – 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2010 | W3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 – 28 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 39% Market priced |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 2 in 4g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.20 AI 34% Market priced |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 23% Market priced |
| – | Josh Cameron | WR | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 38% Market priced |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 24% Market priced |
| – | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 37% | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| – | CJ Williams | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Nate Boerkircher | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Tanner Koziol | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — |
| – | Travis Hunter | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.20 AI 22% Market priced |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — |
| – | Britain Covey | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | E.J. Jenkins | TE | 0 in 1g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — |
| – | Elijah Moore | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Makai Lemon | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jalen Hurts — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 20%
- ⚡ Dontayvion Wicks — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 16%
- ⚡ Darius Cooper — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 11%
- Rest of the Eagles: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (6 picks)
- ⚡ Bhayshul Tuten — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 39%
- ⚡ Parker Washington — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 38%
- ⚡ Chris Rodriguez Jr. — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · new club
- ⚡ Brenton Strange — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24%
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23%
- ⚡ Trevor Lawrence — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 22%
- Rest of the Jaguars: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (PHI)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts · Pass TDs | O 0.5 | $1.48 | 56% (expects 1.0) | market |
| Jalen Hurts · Pass yds | O 193.5 | $1.88 | — | market |
| Jalen Hurts · Rush yds | U 26.5 | $1.88 | — | market |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (JAX)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rush yds | U 60.5 | $1.88 | — | market |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec yds | U 9.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 0.0) | market |
| Bhayshul Tuten · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.88 | 56% (expects 0.8) | market |
| Brenton Strange · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.80 | 54% (expects 3.0) | market |
| Brenton Strange · Rec yds | U 35.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 27.5) | market |
| Brian Thomas Jr. · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.57 | 51% (expects 2.4) | market |
| Brian Thomas Jr. · Rec yds | O 24.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 33.3) | market |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec | U 3.5 | $2.06 | 56% (expects 2.8) | market |
| Jakobi Meyers · Rec yds | U 43.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 35.3) | market |
| Josh Cameron · Rec | U 1.5 | $1.73 | 55% (expects 0.9) | market |
| Josh Cameron · Rec yds | U 12.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 8.4) | market |
| Parker Washington · Rec yds | U 60.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 50.6) | market |
| Parker Washington · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.99 | 58% (expects 3.6) | market |
| Trevor Lawrence · Rush yds | U 13.5 | $1.88 | — | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1609 · Philadelphia Eagles 1530 · ELO difference: 78 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 56 | 53 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 57 | 50 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 |
| Backfield | 57 | 49 | Jacksonville Jaguars +8 |
| Pass Rush | 51 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 53 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 63 | 52 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A high-scoring Jacksonville Jaguars win, around 28–22 (total ~50 — over the 41.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Likely — the model leans over the 41.5 line (model projects 50).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-07 06:55 UTC (latest tip update)