# Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears?

Alphr's NFL model makes Chicago Bears a clear 70% favourite over Green Bay Packers in Week 5. Predicted result: Chicago Bears by 10 in a low-scoring game (46 total, under the 45.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Chicago Bears lead on Team Rating (ELO) and Recent Form. The edge is on the Chicago Bears line at +8.7%.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears
Mon, 12 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · Lambeau Field · Week 5

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.64 (edge +8.7%) — model probability 69.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears -2.5 @ $1.83 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 59.7%
- **Margin Band:** Chicago Bears 1-13 @ $2.25 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 39.5%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.86 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 10 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview

**Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 Oct 2026, 05:55 pm_

Green Bay Packers meet Chicago Bears in NFL Week 5 at Lambeau Field. The model makes Chicago Bears the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model has the Chicago Bears at a 70% chance to win this divisional game against the Green Bay Packers. This strong call is mainly driven by the Bears' superior Team Rating (ELO) and their Recent Form.

The ELO ratings show a clear gap, with the Chicago Bears on 1570 and the Green Bay Packers on 1486. That is an 84-point difference in favour of the Bears. While the Packers hold an edge at Quarterback with a rating of 66 against the Bears' 42, the Bears are stronger in multiple other positions, notably their Backfield at 63 versus 41 and Special Teams at 79 versus 56. Their Secondary also rates higher at 62 compared to the Packers' 59.

Historically, the Green Bay Packers have had the better of the last 12 meetings, winning 9 to the Bears' 3. However, the most recent clash, the 2025 Wild Card round at Soldier Field, saw the Chicago Bears emerge victorious 31-27.

Looking at current form, the Chicago Bears come into this game with three wins from their last five outings, while the Green Bay Packers have two. The Bears have averaged 25.8 points scored and 17 points conceded over their last five, for an average margin of 8.8 points. The Packers, in contrast, have averaged 20 points scored and 27.2 points conceded, resulting in a negative average margin of -7.2 points. This season, the Bears are 3-1 overall and 1-0 on the road, scoring 28.0 points per game and giving up 16.3. The Packers are 2-2 overall and 0-1 at home, scoring 18.3 points and conceding 26.3. Both teams had 7 days of rest leading into this Monday kickoff.

This is a divisional game at Lambeau Field, an outdoor grass venue. The Green Bay Packers are led by head coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Jordan Love. The Chicago Bears are coached by Ben Johnson, with Tyson Bagent at quarterback.

The model predicts the Chicago Bears to win by a margin of 9.7 points, with a combined total of 46 points for the game. The market has the Chicago Bears at $1.64 for the head-to-head win, and the model sees an 8.7% edge on that price. The market line for the Bears is -2.5 at $1.83, which aligns with the model's pick for a clear win. The total line is set at 45.5, with the model leaning towards the Under at $1.86.

For anytime touchdown scorers, the model likes D'Andre Swift at $2.20 with a 43% chance, and Christian Watson at $3.05 with a 34% chance. Kyle Monangai is also a strong pick at $2.45 (32% chance). Other options include Colston Loveland at $3.35 (31% chance), Tucker Kraft at $3.60 (29% chance), and Luther Burden III at $3.50 (26% chance).

For the upset, the Green Bay Packers would need their Quarterback advantage and home field to overcome the Bears' superior overall rating and recent form. The model is not expecting it.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Green Bay Packers 9 · Chicago Bears 3 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 31-27 (2025) |
| Green Bay Packers 2026 so far | 2-2 · 0-1 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 18.3 for · 26.3 against |
| Chicago Bears 2026 so far | 3-1 · 1-0 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 28.0 for · 16.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · Tyson Bagent |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · Ben Johnson |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 25.8pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 17.0pts |
| -7.2pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | WC L · W1 L · W2 W · W3 L · W4 W | 20.0 |
| Chicago Bears | DIV L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W | 25.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Chicago Bears lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WC | Chicago Bears | 31 – 27 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W16 | Chicago Bears | 22 – 16 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W14 | Green Bay Packers | 28 – 21 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W18 | Green Bay Packers | 22 – 24 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W11 | Chicago Bears | 19 – 20 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 4 in 4g | 9/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·2·1·1·0) | 5/7g | 15/26g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 34% Market priced |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/7g | 21% | — |
| – | MarShawn Lloyd | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 20% | — |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 7/21g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 29% Market priced |
| – | Bo Melton | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/16g | 9% | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/15g | 2% | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 24% | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/28g | 4% | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — |

**Chicago Bears** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 3 in 4g | 8/10g (2·0·2·0·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 1/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 43% Market priced |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 32% Market priced |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 18% | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 0/6g | 14% | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 26% Market priced |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 31% Market priced |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — |
| – | Sam Roush | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Tyson Bagent | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (4 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 43%
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 32%
- ⚡ Colston Loveland — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31%
- ⚡ Luther Burden III — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26%
- Rest of the Bears: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Green Bay Packers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Christian Watson — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 34%
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29%
- Rest of the Packers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Green Bay Packers** (GB)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.62 | 53% (expects 1.2) | market |
| Jordan Love · Pass yds | O 233.5 | $1.88 | — | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1486 · Chicago Bears 1570 · ELO difference: 84 in favour of Chicago Bears

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 66 | 42 | Green Bay Packers +24 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 51 | Green Bay Packers +13 |
| Backfield | 41 | 63 | Chicago Bears +22 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 58 | Even |
| Secondary | 59 | 62 | Even |
| Special Teams | 56 | 79 | Chicago Bears +23 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Chicago Bears win, around 28–18 (total ~46 — under the 45.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 45.5 line (model projects 46).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-07 06:55 UTC (latest tip update)