# Atlanta Falcons v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 5 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Atlanta Falcons v Baltimore Ravens?

Alphr's NFL model rates Atlanta Falcons a narrow 55% favourite over Baltimore Ravens in Week 5 — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Atlanta Falcons by 3 in a low-scoring game (42 total, under the 43.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** Baltimore Ravens are stronger on paper, but Secondary tips the model to Atlanta Falcons.

_Alphr NFL Model v5 · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Atlanta Falcons v Baltimore Ravens
Mon, 12 Oct, 11:20 am AEDT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Week 5

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $1.55 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 54.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens +3.5 @ $1.83 (edge -3.9%) — model probability 50.8%
- **Margin Band:** Atlanta Falcons 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 38.1%
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0%
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 3 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview

**Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 5 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 Oct 2026, 05:55 pm_

Atlanta Falcons meet Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 5 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The model makes Atlanta Falcons the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model has the Atlanta Falcons to win this one at 55%, with the Baltimore Ravens at 45%. This is despite the Ravens holding a 71-point ELO ratings lead, 1558 to the Falcons' 1487. The model is backing the Falcons against that ratings gap.

Baltimore also shades the positional ratings. They are ahead at Quarterback 60 to 53, Receiving Corps 57 to 45, Backfield 95 to 80, Pass Rush 53 to 47 and Special Teams 68 to 51. The Falcons only hold a clear edge in the Secondary, rated 61 to Baltimore's 54.

Looking at the head-to-head, the Ravens have had the better of it recently, winning five of the last seven meetings. Their last encounter was in Week 16 of the 2022 season, where the Ravens secured a 17-9 victory at M&T Bank Stadium.

Both teams come into this game with similar recent form, each recording three wins from their last five outings. The Falcons have a WLLWW run, while the Ravens are LWLWW. Over their last five, the Falcons have averaged 23 points for and 21.8 against, with an average margin of 1.2 points. The Ravens have averaged 28 points for and 24.4 against, with a larger average margin of 3.6 points.

So far in the 2026 regular season, the Falcons are 2-2, with a 0-1 record at home. They have averaged 24.0 points for and 23.0 against per game. The Ravens have a stronger 3-1 record, including 2-0 on the road, averaging 29.0 points for and 24.0 against per game.

This game kicks off on Monday local time at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which has a fieldturf surface. Atlanta's Michael Penix Jr. will line up at quarterback against Baltimore's Lamar Jackson. The Falcons are coached by Raheem Morris, and the Ravens by Jesse Minter. The Ravens have had a slight rest advantage, with 7 days off compared to the Falcons' 6 days.

The model predicts a tight contest, with the Atlanta Falcons winning by a margin of 3.0 points. It expects a combined total of 42 points. The market has the Falcons at $1.55 in the head-to-head, but the model sees a negative edge of 10.0% on that price. The market has the Ravens at a 3.5-point line at $1.83, which aligns with the model's pick for the Ravens to cover that line. The total line is set at 43.5, with the model favouring the Under at $1.90.

In the touchdown markets, the model's top pick for an anytime touchdown is Bijan Robinson at $1.44, with a 55% chance. Derrick Henry is also a strong chance at $1.77 (50% model chance). Zay Flowers is rated a 33% chance at $3.20, and Drake London a 32% chance at $2.40. Kyle Pitts Sr. is at $4.50 (24% chance), and Brian Robinson Jr. at $3.50 (21% chance).

For the Falcons to win this, their Secondary will need to have a significant impact, as that is the primary factor the model is leaning on to overcome Baltimore's overall team rating and positional advantages. It shapes as a genuine contest.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Atlanta Falcons 2 · Baltimore Ravens 5 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 17-9 (2022) |
| Atlanta Falcons 2026 so far | 2-2 · 0-1 home |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 24.0 for · 23.0 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2026 so far | 3-1 · 2-0 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 29.0 for · 24.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Michael Penix Jr. · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Raheem Morris · Jesse Minter |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Atlanta Falcons | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 21.8pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.6pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | W18 W · W1 L · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W | 23.0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W18 L · W1 W · W2 L · W3 W · W4 W | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | W16 | Baltimore Ravens | 17 – 9 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2018 | W13 | Atlanta Falcons | 16 – 26 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2014 | W7 | Baltimore Ravens | 29 – 7 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2010 | W10 | Atlanta Falcons | 26 – 21 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2006 | W11 | Baltimore Ravens | 24 – 10 | Atlanta Falcons |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Atlanta Falcons** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 5 in 4g | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2·2) | 0/0g | 19/26g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.44 AI 55% Market priced |
| – | Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | 4 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 21% Market priced |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 6/23g | 16% | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 8% | — |
| – | Charlie Woerner | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — |
| – | Chris Blair | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| – | Drake London | WR | 0 in 4g | 5/10g (3·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/32g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 32% Market priced |
| – | Kyle Pitts Sr. | TE | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/39g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 24% Market priced |
| – | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/7g | 8% | — |
| – | Nick Muse | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/23g | 14% | — |
| – | Zachariah Branch | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (projected 17)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 7 in 4g | 14/10g (1·0·0·2·4·0·3·1·2·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.77 AI 50% Market priced |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 33% Market priced |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 12% | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | — |
| – | Matthew Hibner | TE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — |
| – | Elijah Sarratt | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Josh Cuevas | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| – | Tyler Huntley | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry — 7 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 0 pass) · model 50%
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 33%
- Rest of the Ravens: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

**Atlanta Falcons** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 55%
- ⚡ Drake London — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32%
- ⚡ Kyle Pitts Sr. — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24%
- ⚡ Brian Robinson Jr. — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 21%
- Rest of the Falcons: 2 TDs across the team's last 5

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Baltimore Ravens** (BAL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry · Rush yds | O 86.5 | $1.88 | — | market |
| Justice Hill · Rush yds | U 11.5 | $1.88 | — | market |
| Mark Andrews · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.99 | 59% (expects 2.4) | market |
| Mark Andrews · Rec yds | U 28.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 18.5) | market |
| Tyler Huntley · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.41 | 62% (expects 0.5) | market |
| Tyler Huntley · Pass yds | U 173.5 | $1.88 | — | market |
| Zay Flowers · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.77 | 58% (expects 4.5) | market |
| Zay Flowers · Rec yds | U 66.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 64.5) | market |

**Atlanta Falcons** (ATL)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson · Rec yds | U 26.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 22.9) | market |
| Bijan Robinson · Rush yds | U 88.5 | $1.88 | — | market |
| Bijan Robinson · Rec | O 3.5 | $1.76 | 53% (expects 3.8) | market |
| Brian Robinson Jr. · Rush yds | U 35.5 | $1.88 | — | market |
| Drake London · Rec yds | U 82.5 | $1.88 | 54% (expects 62.2) | market |
| Drake London · Rec | U 6.5 | $1.59 | 69% (expects 4.2) | market |
| Jahan Dotson · Rec yds | U 19.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 9.7) | market |
| Jahan Dotson · Rec | U 1.5 | $2.23 | 56% (expects 0.8) | market |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. · Rec yds | O 24.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 31.0) | market |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. · Rec | O 2.5 | $2.02 | 57% (expects 3.3) | market |
| Michael Penix Jr. · Pass yds | O 221.5 | $1.88 | — | market |
| Michael Penix Jr. · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.66 | 57% (expects 0.9) | market |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Baltimore Ravens hold the ELO advantage (1558 vs 1487), but the market favours Atlanta Falcons (@1.55). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Atlanta Falcons 1487 · Baltimore Ravens 1558 · ELO difference: 71 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 60 | Baltimore Ravens +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 45 | 57 | Baltimore Ravens +12 |
| Backfield | 80 | 95 | Baltimore Ravens +15 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 53 | Baltimore Ravens +6 |
| Secondary | 61 | 54 | Atlanta Falcons +7 |
| Special Teams | 51 | 68 | Baltimore Ravens +17 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Atlanta Falcons |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Atlanta Falcons predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Atlanta Falcons win, around 23–20 (total ~42 — under the 43.5 line).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 43.5 line (model projects 42).

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-07 06:55 UTC (latest tip update)