# Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Washington Commanders 13 – 30 Indianapolis Colts

_Indianapolis Colts bolt past Washington Commanders._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Washington Commanders 36% / Indianapolis Colts 64% · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Mon, 05 Oct, 12:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Washington Commanders: Treylon Burks (35') · Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor (27' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (33' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Jones (49')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 64% | Won |
| Washington Commanders | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.8 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 03:42 am_

Washington Commanders 13–30 Indianapolis Colts in NFL Week 4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Washington Commanders outgained Indianapolis Colts 332 yards to 271 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and posted 232 passing yards to 143. They managed 100 rushing yards to the Colts 128 yet still fell 30-13, a 17-point margin that exposed deeper flaws. Their offence registered an Offensive EPA of -15.2 against the Colts -5.5, a 9.7-point gap that told the real story of snap-for-snap inefficiency.

They started with promise, leading 6-0 at the end of the first quarter. Their only touchdown came through Treylon Burks. That early edge vanished in the second quarter when Jonathan Taylor scored for the Colts with 3:23 left, levelling it at 6-6. By half-time the Commanders trailed 10-6 and the game had already tilted.

The Colts extended their lead in the third quarter. Jonathan Taylor scored again with 12:45 left to make it 16-6. The Commanders answered with Treylon Burks at the 10:39 mark, closing to 17-12, but by the end of the third they sat at 20-13 down. Daniel Jones then scored for the Colts with 11:38 left in the fourth, pushing it to 26-13 before Indianapolis Colts added the final points to reach 30-13.

The statistical breakdown shows where it slipped away. The Commanders had more passing yards, yet only 11 first downs to the Colts 16. Indianapolis Colts converted their chances better, especially on the ground with 128 rushing yards to 100. Jonathan Taylor's two touchdowns proved decisive in that department.

Turnovers also played a part. The Commanders had one turnover while the Colts had two. Both teams made two sacks each, an even contest in the pass rush. Still the Colts turned their drives into points and their mistakes never hurt them the way the Commanders' yardage advantage did.

Positional strengths going into the match showed a mixed picture. The Commanders had a higher-rated quarterback 45 vs 36 and receiving corps 48 vs 45. However the Colts held the edge in backfield 67 vs 58, secondary 56 vs 51, and special teams 63 vs 48. Those advantages, particularly in the backfield and special teams, helped them seize and keep control.

The Alphr model had predicted a Colts win with a 64% probability. It had the Colts winning by 5.9 points, which was reasonable against the actual 17-point margin. The total score prediction of 45 was also close to the actual 43, within 2 points. The model's pre-match ratings of Commanders 1442 and Colts 1443 highlighted how tight it could be, but the Colts' efficiency on the day made the difference. The model correctly predicted the Colts to win, and its margin and total score predictions were close to the actual results.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | 6 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:57 | Washington Commanders | FG | — | 3-0 |
| Q1 6:21 | Washington Commanders | FG | — | 6-0 |
| Q2 3:23 | Indianapolis Colts | TD | Jonathan Taylor | 6-7 |
| Q2 0:00 | Indianapolis Colts | FG | — | 6-10 |
| Q3 12:45 | Indianapolis Colts | TD | Jonathan Taylor | 6-17 |
| Q3 10:39 | Washington Commanders | TD | Treylon Burks | 13-17 |
| Q3 7:03 | Indianapolis Colts | FG | — | 13-20 |
| Q4 11:38 | Indianapolis Colts | TD | Daniel Jones | 13-27 |
| Q4 5:48 | Indianapolis Colts | FG | — | 13-30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| **332** | Total Yards | 271 |
| **232** | Passing Yards | 143 |
| 100 | Rushing Yards | **128** |
| 11 | First Downs | **16** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| -15.2 | Offensive EPA | **-5.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Indianapolis Colts to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 5.8 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 43, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.49 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 64.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts -3.5 @ $1.89 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 53.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Indianapolis Colts 1-13 @ $2.18 (edge -6.9%) — model probability 39.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.83 (edge -4.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Indianapolis Colts are the call at 64%, but Washington Commanders stay live at 36%. Form leans Washington Commanders' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Indianapolis Colts.

On paper Washington Commanders shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Pass Rush and Recent Form. The model still sides with Indianapolis Colts, which says Secondary carry the most weight. The margin model has Indianapolis Colts by 5.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Indianapolis Colts, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Indianapolis Colts have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Washington Commanders took the most recent meeting 17-16 in 2022 Week 8.

Washington Commanders went 1-2 in 2026 so far, 1-0 at home, averaging 25.0 points for and 30.7 against.

Indianapolis Colts went 1-2 in 2026 so far, 0-1 away, averaging 24.0 points for and 30.3 against.

Jayden Daniels starts under centre for Washington Commanders, Daniel Jones for Indianapolis Colts, with Dan Quinn and Shane Steichen calling the shots.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Washington Commanders $2.63 and Indianapolis Colts $1.49, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -3.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Washington Commanders 2 · Indianapolis Colts 5 |
| Last meeting | Washington Commanders 17-16 (2022) |
| Washington Commanders 2026 so far | 1-2 · 1-0 home |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 25.0 for · 30.7 against |
| Indianapolis Colts 2026 so far | 1-2 · 0-1 away |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 24.0 for · 30.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jayden Daniels · Daniel Jones |
| Head coaches | Dan Quinn · Shane Steichen |
| Market | Washington Commanders $2.63 · Indianapolis Colts $1.49 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -3.5 · total 47.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Washington Commanders | Stat | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 27.8pts | Avg Conceded | 30.4pts |
| -3.4pts | Avg Margin | -6.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L · W3 W | 24.4 |
| Indianapolis Colts | W17 L · W18 L · W1 L · W2 L · W3 W | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Indianapolis Colts lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | Washington Commanders | 13 – 30 | Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts 64% ✓ |
| 2022 | W8 | Indianapolis Colts | 16 – 17 | Washington Commanders | not priced |
| 2018 | W2 | Washington Commanders | 9 – 21 | Indianapolis Colts | not priced |
| 2014 | W13 | Indianapolis Colts | 49 – 27 | Washington Commanders | not priced |
| 2010 | W6 | Washington Commanders | 24 – 27 | Indianapolis Colts | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 5/5g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Antonio Williams | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Treylon Burks | WR | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 35' |
| – | Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Austin Ekeler | RB | no games | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/2g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Colson Yankoff | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Craig Reynolds | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Kaytron Allen | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Mariota | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 4 in 3g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.37 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $3.90 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 27' 33' |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Deion Burks | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Seth McGowan | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Indianapolis Colts** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 63% · **scored Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Josh Downs 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Darius Slayton — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 24% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Jones

**Washington Commanders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Terry McLaurin 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Burks

### Player Props — Yardage & Receptions

_Market lines vs our model's read for each player's rushing, receiving and passing numbers. ⚡ = the model sits 10+ points past the price; everything else is market intel, not a tip. Projections assume the depth-chart role the model saw at publish._

**Indianapolis Colts** (IND)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.76 | 57% (expects 1.0) | ✓ landed |
| Daniel Jones · Rush yds | U 11.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 8.8) | ✓ landed |
| Daniel Jones · Pass yds | O 224.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 230.9) | ✗ missed |
| Jonathan Taylor · Rec yds | U 19.5 | $1.88 | 50% (expects 18.2) | ✓ landed |
| Jonathan Taylor · Rush yds | U 90.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 77.3) | ✗ missed |
| Jonathan Taylor · Rec | U 2.5 | $1.99 | 54% (expects 2.1) | ✓ landed |
| Josh Downs · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.63 | 68% (expects 3.3) | ✓ landed |
| Josh Downs · Rec yds | U 64.5 | $1.88 | 57% (expects 32.8) | ✓ landed |
| Keenan Allen · Rec yds | U 33.5 | $1.88 | 52% (expects 26.3) | — |
| Keenan Allen · Rec | U 3.5 | $1.90 | 54% (expects 3.0) | — |
| Tyler Warren · Rec | U 5.5 | $1.80 | 65% (expects 3.6) | ✓ landed |
| Tyler Warren · Rec yds | U 46.5 | $1.88 | 53% (expects 32.5) | ✓ landed |

**Washington Commanders** (WAS)

| Player · market | Line | Price | AI read | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Rush yds | U 54.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 43.5) | ✓ landed |
| Marcus Mariota · Pass TDs | U 1.5 | $1.52 | 57% (expects 1.0) | ✓ landed |
| Marcus Mariota · Rush yds | U 27.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 19.0) | ✗ missed |
| Marcus Mariota · Pass yds | U 212.5 | $1.88 | no read (expects 182.7) | ✓ landed |
| Stefon Diggs · Rec yds | U 41.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 37.8) | ✓ landed |
| Stefon Diggs · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.67 | 60% (expects 3.3) | ✗ missed |
| Terry McLaurin · Rec yds | U 55.5 | $1.88 | 51% (expects 51.1) | — |
| Terry McLaurin · Rec | U 4.5 | $1.91 | 61% (expects 3.1) | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Washington Commanders 1442 · Indianapolis Colts 1443 · ELO difference: 0 in favour of Indianapolis Colts

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Washington Commanders | Indianapolis Colts | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 45 | 36 | Washington Commanders +9 |
| Receiving Corps | 48 | 45 | Even |
| Backfield | 58 | 67 | Indianapolis Colts +9 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 48 | Washington Commanders +9 |
| Secondary | 51 | 56 | Indianapolis Colts +5 |
| Special Teams | 48 | 63 | Indianapolis Colts +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Indianapolis Colts predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 16:42 UTC (latest tip update)