# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – 17 Green Bay Packers

_Green Bay Packers survive a scare against Tampa Bay Buccaneers._

Half time: 7 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42% / Green Bay Packers 58% · Raymond James Stadium · Mon, 05 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sean Tucker (25' Tipped ⚡), Kenny Gainwell (46') · Green Bay Packers: Matthew Golden (18' Tipped ⚡), Tucker Kraft (35' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 58% | Won |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers Prediction & Tips | NFL Week 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:28 pm · Last updated: 5 Oct 2026, 07:48 am_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14–17 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 4 at Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers outgained Green Bay Packers 289 yards to 283 and won the first-down battle 18 to 13. They rushed for 141 yards to 86 and controlled the line for long stretches at Raymond James Stadium. None of it was enough. Green Bay Packers took the points 17-14 in a contest that stayed within a score to the end.

The ground game looked promising. Bucky Irving led all rushers with 61 yards on 16 carries and Tampa Bay Buccaneers moved the chains consistently. Yet those gains never produced enough points. Sean Tucker scored on the ground in the second quarter and Kenny Gainwell added another in the fourth. Both touchdowns came after Green Bay Packers had already seized the lead.

Green Bay Packers leaned on their passing edge and got after the quarterback. They posted 197 passing yards to 148 and recorded three sacks while Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed none. Jalon Daniels went 19-of-27 for 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jordan Love answered with 22-of-30 for 197 yards, two touchdowns and one pick. The pressure forced Tampa Bay Buccaneers into predictable situations and kept their offence behind schedule.

Scoring opened in the second quarter. Matthew Golden gave Green Bay Packers a touchdown at the 12:54 mark for a 6-0 lead. Sean Tucker replied for Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the 5:13 mark to make it 6-7. Green Bay Packers added a field goal before half-time and led 10-7 at the break. Tucker Kraft stretched the margin with a touchdown at the 10:32 mark of the third quarter for a 16-7 advantage, then the extra point made it 17-7. Kenny Gainwell narrowed the gap at the 14:49 mark of the fourth to 17-13 and the extra point trimmed it to 17-14. Green Bay Packers held on.

Alphr’s model had called for a tight result with Green Bay Packers favoured by 0.3. The actual margin of three points showed the model was sharp. Pre-match ratings sat at 1472 for Green Bay Packers and 1428 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The model gave Green Bay Packers a 58% probability of victory and went 2/3 overall on the match.

Positional strength ratings told a similar story. Green Bay Packers rated 64 at quarterback against Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 30, held a 64 to 51 edge in receiving corps and a 59 to 50 advantage in the secondary. Tampa Bay Buccaneers rated slightly higher on pass rush at 54 to 53 and posted better recent rushing numbers, yet those edges did not overcome the gaps elsewhere. Special teams sat close at 69 to 67.

Both sides arrived with matching recent form, one win apiece from their last five. Tampa Bay Buccaneers had averaged 19 points scored and 22.6 conceded for an average margin of -3.6. Green Bay Packers averaged 17.2 points scored and 27.6 conceded for an average margin of -10.4. Rest days favoured Green Bay Packers at 10 to seven. Their last-five run read LWLLL for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and LLLWL for Green Bay Packers.

Efficiency separated them in the end. Green Bay Packers posted an offensive EPA of 1.1 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ -2.3. Both sides turned the ball over twice, so that cancelled out. The numbers confirmed what the scoreboard showed. Green Bay Packers did just enough.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |

**Scoring Timeline**

| Clock | Team | Play | Scorer | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 12:54 | Green Bay Packers | TD | Matthew Golden | 0-7 |
| Q2 5:13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TD | Sean Tucker | 7-7 |
| Q2 0:00 | Green Bay Packers | FG | — | 7-10 |
| Q3 10:32 | Green Bay Packers | TD | Tucker Kraft | 7-17 |
| Q4 14:49 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TD | Kenny Gainwell | 14-17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| **289** | Total Yards | 283 |
| 148 | Passing Yards | **197** |
| **141** | Rushing Yards | 86 |
| **18** | First Downs | 13 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -2.3 | Offensive EPA | **1.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Green Bay Packers to win at 58% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Green Bay Packers by 0.3 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.50 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 58.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 @ $1.97 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Green Bay Packers 1-13 @ $2.35 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 37.0% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.90 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 0 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Green Bay Packers are the call at 58%, but Tampa Bay Buccaneers stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 44 ELO points clear, 1472 to 1428.

Green Bay Packers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. Lean Green Bay Packers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the most recent meeting 34-20 in 2023 Week 15.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 0-3 in 2026 so far, 0-2 at home, averaging 20.7 points for and 26.3 against.

Green Bay Packers went 1-2 in 2026 so far, 1-1 away, averaging 18.7 points for and 30.3 against.

Baker Mayfield starts under centre for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Todd Bowles and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

Green Bay Packers come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.60 and Green Bay Packers $1.50, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -3.5 and the total at 39.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 · Green Bay Packers 5 |
| Last meeting | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-20 (2023) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 so far | 0-3 · 0-2 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 20.7 for · 26.3 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2026 so far | 1-2 · 1-1 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 18.7 for · 30.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Matt LaFleur |
| Rest | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7d · Green Bay Packers 10d |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $2.60 · Green Bay Packers $1.50 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -3.5 · total 39.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.0pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 27.6pts |
| -3.6pts | Avg Margin | -10.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W17 L · W18 W · W1 L · W2 L · W3 L | 19.0 |
| Green Bay Packers | W18 L · WC L · W1 L · W2 W · W3 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | W4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14 – 17 | Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers 58% ✓ |
| 2023 | W15 | Green Bay Packers | 20 – 34 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | not priced |
| 2022 | W3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 12 – 14 | Green Bay Packers | not priced |
| 2020 | DIV | Green Bay Packers | 26 – 31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | not priced |
| 2020 | W6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 38 – 10 | Green Bay Packers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bucky Irving | RB | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 8/18g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Ted Hurst III | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Bauer Sharp | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/33g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 22/62g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 20% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jalon Daniels | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/6g | 20% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | no games | 7/10g (1·0·3·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/19g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $17.00 AI 19% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 18% | — | — |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 4 in 3g | 9/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | MarShawn Lloyd | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 22% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 6% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 18' |
| – | Bo Melton | WR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mark Redman | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 23% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian Watson 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Tucker Kraft 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Matthew Golden 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 22% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Packers: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Bucky Irving 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Godwin Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 20% · no TD
- ⚡ Sean Tucker — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 19% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Gainwell

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1428 · Green Bay Packers 1472 · ELO difference: 44 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 30 | 64 | Green Bay Packers +34 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 64 | Green Bay Packers +13 |
| Backfield | 42 | 42 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 50 | 59 | Green Bay Packers +9 |
| Special Teams | 69 | 67 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Green Bay Packers |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Green Bay Packers favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 20:48 UTC (latest tip update)